Opinion Poll by Opinòmetre for CEO, 22 October–12 November 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 25.1% | 23.4–26.9% | 22.9–27.4% | 22.5–27.9% | 21.7–28.7% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 21.4% | 19.8–23.1% | 19.3–23.6% | 19.0–24.0% | 18.2–24.8% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 14.8% | 13.5–16.3% | 13.1–16.8% | 12.8–17.1% | 12.1–17.9% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 14.5% | 13.2–16.0% | 12.8–16.4% | 12.5–16.8% | 11.9–17.6% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 10.4% | 9.3–11.7% | 8.9–12.1% | 8.7–12.4% | 8.1–13.1% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 8.5% | 7.5–9.8% | 7.2–10.1% | 7.0–10.4% | 6.5–11.0% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.4–4.6% | 2.1–5.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 38 | 35–40 | 34–41 | 33–42 | 32–44 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 29 | 27–32 | 27–33 | 26–33 | 25–35 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 23 | 20–24 | 19–26 | 18–27 | 18–29 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 18 | 16–22 | 16–23 | 16–23 | 15–24 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–16 | 9–17 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 9–15 | 8–15 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.9% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 33 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 34 | 4% | 95% | |
| 35 | 6% | 91% | |
| 36 | 11% | 85% | |
| 37 | 9% | 73% | |
| 38 | 23% | 64% | Median |
| 39 | 26% | 41% | |
| 40 | 8% | 15% | |
| 41 | 3% | 7% | |
| 42 | 2% | 4% | |
| 43 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98.8% | |
| 27 | 11% | 95% | |
| 28 | 12% | 84% | |
| 29 | 27% | 73% | Median |
| 30 | 21% | 46% | |
| 31 | 12% | 25% | |
| 32 | 7% | 13% | |
| 33 | 3% | 6% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 3% | 97% | |
| 20 | 6% | 95% | |
| 21 | 7% | 89% | |
| 22 | 8% | 82% | |
| 23 | 40% | 74% | Median |
| 24 | 25% | 34% | |
| 25 | 4% | 9% | |
| 26 | 2% | 5% | |
| 27 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 10% | 98.6% | |
| 17 | 29% | 88% | Last Result |
| 18 | 25% | 59% | Median |
| 19 | 11% | 34% | |
| 20 | 5% | 23% | |
| 21 | 6% | 18% | |
| 22 | 7% | 12% | |
| 23 | 4% | 5% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 3% | 98% | |
| 11 | 15% | 95% | |
| 12 | 9% | 80% | |
| 13 | 38% | 71% | Median |
| 14 | 26% | 33% | |
| 15 | 4% | 7% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 16% | 98% | |
| 10 | 8% | 82% | |
| 11 | 42% | 74% | Median |
| 12 | 10% | 32% | |
| 13 | 14% | 22% | |
| 14 | 4% | 8% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 82% | |
| 2 | 24% | 82% | |
| 3 | 46% | 58% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 11% | Last Result |
| 5 | 4% | 5% | |
| 6 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 74 | 98% | 70–77 | 69–78 | 68–78 | 67–80 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 72 | 95% | 68–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 65–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 69 | 73% | 66–72 | 65–73 | 64–74 | 62–76 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 63 | 5% | 60–67 | 59–67 | 58–68 | 57–70 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 61 | 0.3% | 57–63 | 56–64 | 56–65 | 54–67 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 57 | 50 | 0% | 47–54 | 46–55 | 46–55 | 44–57 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 51 | 0% | 47–53 | 46–54 | 45–55 | 44–57 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 97% | |
| 70 | 7% | 94% | |
| 71 | 7% | 86% | |
| 72 | 11% | 79% | |
| 73 | 13% | 68% | |
| 74 | 15% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 75 | 18% | 40% | |
| 76 | 12% | 22% | |
| 77 | 5% | 10% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 6% | 95% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 90% | |
| 70 | 10% | 82% | Last Result |
| 71 | 12% | 72% | |
| 72 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 73 | 19% | 44% | |
| 74 | 12% | 24% | |
| 75 | 6% | 12% | |
| 76 | 4% | 6% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 4% | 96% | |
| 66 | 7% | 92% | |
| 67 | 12% | 85% | |
| 68 | 14% | 73% | Majority |
| 69 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 70 | 19% | 45% | |
| 71 | 11% | 26% | |
| 72 | 6% | 15% | |
| 73 | 4% | 9% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 59 | 4% | 97% | |
| 60 | 6% | 94% | |
| 61 | 12% | 88% | |
| 62 | 19% | 76% | |
| 63 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 64 | 12% | 40% | |
| 65 | 10% | 28% | Last Result |
| 66 | 8% | 18% | |
| 67 | 6% | 10% | |
| 68 | 3% | 5% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 55 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 7% | 95% | |
| 58 | 7% | 88% | |
| 59 | 11% | 80% | |
| 60 | 12% | 70% | |
| 61 | 16% | 57% | Median |
| 62 | 19% | 41% | |
| 63 | 13% | 22% | |
| 64 | 4% | 9% | |
| 65 | 3% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 2% | Last Result |
| 67 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 46 | 4% | 98% | |
| 47 | 6% | 94% | |
| 48 | 12% | 89% | |
| 49 | 21% | 77% | |
| 50 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 51 | 12% | 41% | |
| 52 | 10% | 29% | |
| 53 | 8% | 19% | |
| 54 | 6% | 12% | |
| 55 | 3% | 5% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.6% | 1.0% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 46 | 3% | 97% | |
| 47 | 5% | 94% | |
| 48 | 6% | 89% | |
| 49 | 13% | 83% | |
| 50 | 13% | 70% | |
| 51 | 18% | 57% | Median |
| 52 | 19% | 39% | |
| 53 | 11% | 21% | |
| 54 | 5% | 9% | |
| 55 | 3% | 4% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinòmetre
- Commissioner(s): CEO
- Fieldwork period: 22 October–12 November 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1020
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.98%