Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 24 December 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 25.0% | 23.0–27.1% | 22.5–27.7% | 22.0–28.2% | 21.1–29.2% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 24.2% | 22.2–26.3% | 21.7–26.9% | 21.2–27.4% | 20.3–28.4% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 15.0% | 13.5–16.8% | 13.0–17.3% | 12.6–17.8% | 11.9–18.7% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 14.9% | 13.3–16.7% | 12.9–17.2% | 12.5–17.6% | 11.8–18.5% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.5–9.1% | 6.2–9.4% | 5.9–9.8% | 5.5–10.5% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.6–6.8% | 3.2–7.4% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.6–5.6% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.2–6.2% | 2.8–6.8% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.2–3.3% | 1.0–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 35 | 32–38 | 31–39 | 30–39 | 29–42 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 36 | 34–40 | 32–41 | 32–42 | 30–44 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 20 | 17–23 | 16–24 | 16–24 | 15–25 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 24 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 18–28 | 18–29 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 5–13 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 2–9 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 5 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 2–7 | 0–9 |
| Vox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 3% | 96% | |
| 32 | 6% | 94% | |
| 33 | 6% | 88% | |
| 34 | 16% | 82% | |
| 35 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 36 | 17% | 48% | Last Result |
| 37 | 13% | 30% | |
| 38 | 11% | 17% | |
| 39 | 4% | 6% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 32 | 4% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 33 | 4% | 94% | |
| 34 | 9% | 90% | |
| 35 | 17% | 81% | |
| 36 | 15% | 64% | Median |
| 37 | 10% | 49% | |
| 38 | 15% | 39% | |
| 39 | 12% | 24% | |
| 40 | 4% | 11% | |
| 41 | 5% | 7% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 5% | 99.2% | |
| 17 | 16% | 94% | Last Result |
| 18 | 11% | 78% | |
| 19 | 18% | 68% | |
| 20 | 13% | 50% | Median |
| 21 | 12% | 37% | |
| 22 | 8% | 25% | |
| 23 | 11% | 17% | |
| 24 | 5% | 6% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 2% | 97% | |
| 20 | 5% | 95% | |
| 21 | 5% | 90% | |
| 22 | 6% | 86% | |
| 23 | 28% | 79% | |
| 24 | 26% | 51% | Median |
| 25 | 10% | 25% | |
| 26 | 8% | 15% | |
| 27 | 4% | 7% | |
| 28 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 98% | |
| 7 | 9% | 91% | |
| 8 | 39% | 82% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 14% | 43% | |
| 10 | 13% | 29% | |
| 11 | 11% | 16% | |
| 12 | 3% | 5% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 18% | 96% | Last Result |
| 5 | 5% | 79% | |
| 6 | 20% | 74% | |
| 7 | 30% | 54% | Median |
| 8 | 21% | 23% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 2 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 3 | 32% | 97% | |
| 4 | 6% | 65% | Last Result |
| 5 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 6 | 25% | 37% | |
| 7 | 11% | 13% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 5% | 8% | |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 68 | 61% | 65–72 | 64–73 | 63–75 | 61–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 69 | 67% | 65–72 | 64–73 | 63–74 | 61–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 66 | 36% | 63–70 | 62–71 | 60–72 | 58–74 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 65 | 21% | 61–69 | 60–70 | 59–71 | 58–73 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 60 | 0.6% | 56–64 | 56–65 | 55–66 | 52–68 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 57 | 60 | 0.5% | 56–63 | 55–65 | 54–66 | 52–67 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 60 | 0.6% | 57–64 | 55–65 | 54–65 | 52–68 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 45 | 0% | 42–49 | 41–50 | 40–51 | 38–53 |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.0% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98% | |
| 64 | 4% | 97% | |
| 65 | 7% | 92% | Last Result |
| 66 | 13% | 85% | |
| 67 | 11% | 72% | |
| 68 | 12% | 61% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 16% | 50% | |
| 70 | 11% | 33% | |
| 71 | 7% | 22% | |
| 72 | 7% | 15% | |
| 73 | 4% | 9% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 63 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 64 | 3% | 96% | |
| 65 | 6% | 93% | |
| 66 | 8% | 87% | |
| 67 | 12% | 79% | |
| 68 | 13% | 67% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 12% | 54% | |
| 70 | 12% | 42% | |
| 71 | 15% | 31% | |
| 72 | 7% | 16% | |
| 73 | 5% | 9% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 75 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 77 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 61 | 2% | 97% | |
| 62 | 5% | 95% | |
| 63 | 7% | 90% | |
| 64 | 7% | 83% | |
| 65 | 12% | 76% | |
| 66 | 16% | 64% | |
| 67 | 11% | 47% | Median |
| 68 | 10% | 36% | Majority |
| 69 | 12% | 26% | |
| 70 | 7% | 14% | Last Result |
| 71 | 4% | 7% | |
| 72 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 1.5% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 60 | 4% | 97% | |
| 61 | 5% | 94% | |
| 62 | 8% | 89% | |
| 63 | 14% | 81% | |
| 64 | 11% | 67% | Median |
| 65 | 13% | 56% | |
| 66 | 14% | 43% | |
| 67 | 8% | 29% | |
| 68 | 7% | 21% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 14% | |
| 70 | 2% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 4% | |
| 72 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.4% | |
| 54 | 1.1% | 98.9% | |
| 55 | 3% | 98% | |
| 56 | 5% | 95% | |
| 57 | 11% | 90% | Last Result |
| 58 | 12% | 78% | |
| 59 | 13% | 66% | |
| 60 | 9% | 53% | Median |
| 61 | 16% | 44% | |
| 62 | 8% | 29% | |
| 63 | 10% | 21% | |
| 64 | 4% | 10% | |
| 65 | 3% | 6% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 67 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 98.7% | |
| 55 | 3% | 97% | |
| 56 | 6% | 94% | |
| 57 | 11% | 88% | Last Result |
| 58 | 13% | 77% | |
| 59 | 13% | 64% | |
| 60 | 10% | 51% | Median |
| 61 | 16% | 42% | |
| 62 | 7% | 26% | |
| 63 | 10% | 19% | |
| 64 | 4% | 9% | |
| 65 | 3% | 5% | |
| 66 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 67 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 55 | 3% | 97% | |
| 56 | 4% | 95% | |
| 57 | 7% | 90% | |
| 58 | 11% | 84% | |
| 59 | 16% | 73% | |
| 60 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 61 | 12% | 45% | |
| 62 | 13% | 33% | |
| 63 | 9% | 20% | |
| 64 | 4% | 11% | |
| 65 | 4% | 6% | |
| 66 | 1.2% | 2% | Last Result |
| 67 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.6% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 40 | 2% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 41 | 5% | 97% | |
| 42 | 6% | 92% | |
| 43 | 15% | 86% | |
| 44 | 10% | 70% | Median |
| 45 | 14% | 60% | |
| 46 | 13% | 47% | |
| 47 | 12% | 33% | |
| 48 | 9% | 22% | |
| 49 | 6% | 13% | |
| 50 | 4% | 7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 24 December 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 745
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.05%