Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 24 December 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 25.0% 23.0–27.1% 22.5–27.7% 22.0–28.2% 21.1–29.2%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 24.2% 22.2–26.3% 21.7–26.9% 21.2–27.4% 20.3–28.4%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 15.0% 13.5–16.8% 13.0–17.3% 12.6–17.8% 11.9–18.7%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 14.9% 13.3–16.7% 12.9–17.2% 12.5–17.6% 11.8–18.5%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.7% 6.5–9.1% 6.2–9.4% 5.9–9.8% 5.5–10.5%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 5.0% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.5% 3.6–6.8% 3.2–7.4%
Partit Popular 4.2% 4.4% 3.6–5.6% 3.4–5.9% 3.2–6.2% 2.8–6.8%
Vox 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.2–3.3% 1.0–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 35 32–38 31–39 30–39 29–42
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 36 34–40 32–41 32–42 30–44
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 20 17–23 16–24 16–24 15–25
Junts per Catalunya 34 24 21–26 20–27 18–28 18–29
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 7–11 6–11 6–12 5–13
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 7 4–8 4–8 3–8 2–9
Partit Popular 4 5 3–7 3–7 2–7 0–9
Vox 0 0 0 0–2 0–3 0–3

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.3% 99.9%  
29 0.6% 99.6%  
30 3% 99.0%  
31 3% 96%  
32 6% 94%  
33 6% 88%  
34 16% 82%  
35 18% 66% Median
36 17% 48% Last Result
37 13% 30%  
38 11% 17%  
39 4% 6%  
40 0.8% 2%  
41 0.5% 1.0%  
42 0.3% 0.5%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.2% 99.9%  
30 0.5% 99.7%  
31 0.7% 99.3%  
32 4% 98.6% Last Result
33 4% 94%  
34 9% 90%  
35 17% 81%  
36 15% 64% Median
37 10% 49%  
38 15% 39%  
39 12% 24%  
40 4% 11%  
41 5% 7%  
42 2% 3%  
43 0.7% 1.2%  
44 0.3% 0.5%  
45 0.2% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.9%  
16 5% 99.2%  
17 16% 94% Last Result
18 11% 78%  
19 18% 68%  
20 13% 50% Median
21 12% 37%  
22 8% 25%  
23 11% 17%  
24 5% 6%  
25 0.9% 1.0%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 3% 99.8%  
19 2% 97%  
20 5% 95%  
21 5% 90%  
22 6% 86%  
23 28% 79%  
24 26% 51% Median
25 10% 25%  
26 8% 15%  
27 4% 7%  
28 1.4% 3%  
29 1.1% 1.4%  
30 0.2% 0.3%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 2% 100%  
6 6% 98%  
7 9% 91%  
8 39% 82% Last Result, Median
9 14% 43%  
10 13% 29%  
11 11% 16%  
12 3% 5%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0.6% 99.8%  
3 3% 99.2%  
4 18% 96% Last Result
5 5% 79%  
6 20% 74%  
7 30% 54% Median
8 21% 23%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.0% 100%  
1 0% 99.0%  
2 2% 99.0%  
3 32% 97%  
4 6% 65% Last Result
5 22% 60% Median
6 25% 37%  
7 11% 13%  
8 0.5% 1.1%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 5% 8%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 68 61% 65–72 64–73 63–75 61–77
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 69 67% 65–72 64–73 63–74 61–77
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 66 36% 63–70 62–71 60–72 58–74
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 65 21% 61–69 60–70 59–71 58–73
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Vox 57 60 0.6% 56–64 56–65 55–66 52–68
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular 57 60 0.5% 56–63 55–65 54–66 52–67
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 60 0.6% 57–64 55–65 54–65 52–68
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 45 0% 42–49 41–50 40–51 38–53

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.5% 99.5%  
62 0.8% 99.0%  
63 2% 98%  
64 4% 97%  
65 7% 92% Last Result
66 13% 85%  
67 11% 72%  
68 12% 61% Median, Majority
69 16% 50%  
70 11% 33%  
71 7% 22%  
72 7% 15%  
73 4% 9%  
74 2% 4%  
75 2% 3%  
76 0.5% 1.1%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.7%  
62 0.7% 99.4%  
63 2% 98.6%  
64 3% 96%  
65 6% 93%  
66 8% 87%  
67 12% 79%  
68 13% 67% Median, Majority
69 12% 54%  
70 12% 42%  
71 15% 31%  
72 7% 16%  
73 5% 9%  
74 2% 4% Last Result
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.5% 1.1%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 0.7% 99.4%  
60 2% 98.8%  
61 2% 97%  
62 5% 95%  
63 7% 90%  
64 7% 83%  
65 12% 76%  
66 16% 64%  
67 11% 47% Median
68 10% 36% Majority
69 12% 26%  
70 7% 14% Last Result
71 4% 7%  
72 1.5% 3%  
73 0.7% 1.5%  
74 0.4% 0.8%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
58 0.8% 99.6%  
59 1.3% 98.8%  
60 4% 97%  
61 5% 94%  
62 8% 89%  
63 14% 81%  
64 11% 67% Median
65 13% 56%  
66 14% 43%  
67 8% 29%  
68 7% 21% Majority
69 8% 14%  
70 2% 6%  
71 2% 4%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.7% 1.1%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.3% 99.7%  
53 0.4% 99.4%  
54 1.1% 98.9%  
55 3% 98%  
56 5% 95%  
57 11% 90% Last Result
58 12% 78%  
59 13% 66%  
60 9% 53% Median
61 16% 44%  
62 8% 29%  
63 10% 21%  
64 4% 10%  
65 3% 6%  
66 1.3% 3%  
67 1.1% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.6% Majority
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.7%  
53 0.6% 99.3%  
54 1.3% 98.7%  
55 3% 97%  
56 6% 94%  
57 11% 88% Last Result
58 13% 77%  
59 13% 64%  
60 10% 51% Median
61 16% 42%  
62 7% 26%  
63 10% 19%  
64 4% 9%  
65 3% 5%  
66 1.1% 3%  
67 1.0% 1.4%  
68 0.3% 0.5% Majority
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.4% 99.8%  
53 0.9% 99.4%  
54 1.4% 98%  
55 3% 97%  
56 4% 95%  
57 7% 90%  
58 11% 84%  
59 16% 73%  
60 12% 57% Median
61 12% 45%  
62 13% 33%  
63 9% 20%  
64 4% 11%  
65 4% 6%  
66 1.2% 2% Last Result
67 0.5% 1.1%  
68 0.3% 0.6% Majority
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.4% 99.8%  
39 0.6% 99.4%  
40 2% 98.8% Last Result
41 5% 97%  
42 6% 92%  
43 15% 86%  
44 10% 70% Median
45 14% 60%  
46 13% 47%  
47 12% 33%  
48 9% 22%  
49 6% 13%  
50 4% 7%  
51 2% 3%  
52 0.6% 1.3%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations