Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 10 February 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 25.5% | 24.1–27.0% | 23.7–27.4% | 23.3–27.8% | 22.6–28.5% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 21.5% | 20.2–23.0% | 19.8–23.4% | 19.5–23.7% | 18.9–24.4% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 15.5% | 14.4–16.8% | 14.0–17.2% | 13.8–17.5% | 13.2–18.1% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 15.0% | 13.8–16.2% | 13.5–16.6% | 13.2–16.9% | 12.7–17.5% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.7–8.5% | 6.4–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 5.9–9.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.7–7.4% | 5.5–7.6% | 5.3–7.8% | 5.0–8.3% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.1% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.6–3.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 39 | 37–41 | 36–42 | 35–43 | 34–44 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 30 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 27–34 | 26–35 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 21 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 17–24 | 17–25 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 23 | 23–26 | 21–27 | 21–27 | 19–28 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–12 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 8–9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 3 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 0–7 |
| Vox | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 36 | 5% | 95% | |
| 37 | 13% | 90% | |
| 38 | 14% | 77% | |
| 39 | 21% | 64% | Median |
| 40 | 16% | 43% | |
| 41 | 19% | 27% | |
| 42 | 6% | 8% | |
| 43 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 27 | 6% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 19% | 93% | |
| 29 | 16% | 74% | |
| 30 | 25% | 58% | Median |
| 31 | 11% | 33% | |
| 32 | 11% | 22% | |
| 33 | 6% | 11% | |
| 34 | 5% | 5% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 3% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 18 | 4% | 96% | |
| 19 | 17% | 92% | |
| 20 | 13% | 75% | |
| 21 | 24% | 62% | Median |
| 22 | 13% | 38% | |
| 23 | 19% | 25% | |
| 24 | 6% | 7% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 21 | 4% | 98% | |
| 22 | 3% | 94% | |
| 23 | 42% | 90% | Median |
| 24 | 23% | 49% | |
| 25 | 16% | 26% | |
| 26 | 5% | 10% | |
| 27 | 4% | 5% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 9% | 96% | |
| 8 | 46% | 87% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 21% | 42% | |
| 10 | 16% | 20% | |
| 11 | 4% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 7 | 6% | 99.1% | |
| 8 | 56% | 94% | Median |
| 9 | 28% | 37% | |
| 10 | 6% | 9% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 52% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 44% | Last Result |
| 5 | 26% | 38% | |
| 6 | 11% | 12% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 81% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 19% | |
| 2 | 13% | 19% | |
| 3 | 6% | 6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 71 | 95% | 68–73 | 68–75 | 67–76 | 65–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 72 | 95% | 68–74 | 67–74 | 67–75 | 65–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 69 | 68% | 65–71 | 65–72 | 63–73 | 62–74 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 63 | 4% | 61–66 | 60–67 | 59–68 | 57–69 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 63 | 2% | 60–65 | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–69 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 55 | 0% | 53–58 | 52–59 | 51–60 | 49–61 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 57 | 55 | 0% | 52–57 | 51–59 | 50–60 | 49–61 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 48 | 0% | 45–50 | 44–50 | 43–51 | 42–53 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 6% | 95% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 89% | |
| 70 | 11% | 80% | Median |
| 71 | 21% | 69% | |
| 72 | 16% | 48% | |
| 73 | 23% | 32% | |
| 74 | 4% | 10% | Last Result |
| 75 | 3% | 5% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 7% | 95% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 88% | |
| 70 | 12% | 80% | Last Result, Median |
| 71 | 18% | 68% | |
| 72 | 24% | 50% | |
| 73 | 15% | 26% | |
| 74 | 6% | 11% | |
| 75 | 2% | 5% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 64 | 2% | 97% | |
| 65 | 7% | 95% | |
| 66 | 11% | 89% | |
| 67 | 10% | 78% | |
| 68 | 14% | 68% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 14% | 53% | |
| 70 | 16% | 39% | |
| 71 | 15% | 23% | |
| 72 | 4% | 8% | |
| 73 | 3% | 4% | |
| 74 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98% | |
| 60 | 4% | 96% | |
| 61 | 8% | 92% | |
| 62 | 16% | 83% | Median |
| 63 | 24% | 67% | |
| 64 | 18% | 43% | |
| 65 | 11% | 25% | Last Result |
| 66 | 6% | 14% | |
| 67 | 5% | 9% | |
| 68 | 2% | 4% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 59 | 4% | 97% | |
| 60 | 10% | 93% | |
| 61 | 8% | 83% | |
| 62 | 15% | 75% | Median |
| 63 | 18% | 60% | |
| 64 | 26% | 42% | |
| 65 | 9% | 17% | |
| 66 | 4% | 8% | Last Result |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 3% | 96% | |
| 53 | 8% | 93% | |
| 54 | 26% | 85% | Median |
| 55 | 14% | 59% | |
| 56 | 20% | 44% | |
| 57 | 11% | 25% | Last Result |
| 58 | 6% | 13% | |
| 59 | 4% | 7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 4% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 51 | 3% | 97% | |
| 52 | 5% | 94% | |
| 53 | 10% | 89% | |
| 54 | 28% | 79% | Median |
| 55 | 15% | 51% | |
| 56 | 18% | 36% | |
| 57 | 9% | 18% | Last Result |
| 58 | 4% | 9% | |
| 59 | 3% | 5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 44 | 4% | 96% | |
| 45 | 7% | 92% | |
| 46 | 16% | 85% | |
| 47 | 17% | 69% | Median |
| 48 | 14% | 52% | |
| 49 | 18% | 38% | |
| 50 | 16% | 20% | |
| 51 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 52 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): El Periódico
- Fieldwork period: 10 February 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1468
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.98%