Opinion Poll by Opinòmetre for CEO, 4–25 March 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 28.1% | 26.4–29.9% | 25.9–30.5% | 25.5–30.9% | 24.6–31.8% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 21.6% | 20.0–23.3% | 19.6–23.8% | 19.2–24.2% | 18.5–25.0% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 16.5% | 15.1–18.0% | 14.7–18.5% | 14.3–18.9% | 13.7–19.6% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 14.9% | 13.5–16.4% | 13.2–16.8% | 12.8–17.1% | 12.2–17.9% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.9–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.1% | 4.7–8.7% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 3.0–5.4% | 2.7–5.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 42 | 39–45 | 39–46 | 38–46 | 36–48 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 28 | 27–31 | 26–32 | 26–33 | 25–35 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 23 | 20–24 | 19–25 | 18–25 | 17–25 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 23 | 20–25 | 20–26 | 19–26 | 18–27 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 3 | 3–5 | 2–6 | 2–6 | 0–7 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98% | |
| 39 | 6% | 96% | |
| 40 | 9% | 90% | |
| 41 | 24% | 81% | |
| 42 | 24% | 57% | Median |
| 43 | 10% | 32% | |
| 44 | 9% | 23% | |
| 45 | 6% | 14% | |
| 46 | 6% | 8% | |
| 47 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 27 | 21% | 95% | |
| 28 | 33% | 74% | Median |
| 29 | 10% | 41% | |
| 30 | 17% | 31% | |
| 31 | 7% | 14% | |
| 32 | 3% | 7% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 18 | 2% | 98% | |
| 19 | 4% | 96% | |
| 20 | 10% | 93% | |
| 21 | 9% | 83% | |
| 22 | 12% | 74% | |
| 23 | 29% | 62% | Median |
| 24 | 26% | 33% | |
| 25 | 6% | 6% | |
| 26 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 98% | |
| 20 | 9% | 96% | |
| 21 | 6% | 87% | |
| 22 | 4% | 81% | |
| 23 | 39% | 77% | Median |
| 24 | 27% | 38% | |
| 25 | 6% | 11% | |
| 26 | 4% | 5% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 9% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 20% | 91% | |
| 7 | 22% | 71% | Median |
| 8 | 40% | 49% | Last Result |
| 9 | 6% | 9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 15% | 96% | |
| 8 | 60% | 81% | Median |
| 9 | 16% | 21% | |
| 10 | 3% | 4% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 6% | 98% | |
| 3 | 57% | 92% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 35% | Last Result |
| 5 | 21% | 30% | |
| 6 | 7% | 9% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 73 | 98.8% | 70–76 | 69–77 | 68–78 | 67–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 72 | 97% | 69–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 66–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 72 | 95% | 69–75 | 68–75 | 67–76 | 65–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 65 | 12% | 62–68 | 61–69 | 60–70 | 59–71 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 62 | 1.2% | 59–65 | 58–66 | 57–67 | 56–68 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular | 57 | 55 | 0% | 52–57 | 51–58 | 50–59 | 48–61 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 49 | 0% | 46–52 | 46–53 | 45–54 | 43–55 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 98.8% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 97% | |
| 70 | 6% | 94% | Last Result |
| 71 | 9% | 88% | |
| 72 | 18% | 79% | |
| 73 | 23% | 61% | Median |
| 74 | 17% | 37% | |
| 75 | 9% | 21% | |
| 76 | 6% | 12% | |
| 77 | 3% | 7% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 95% | |
| 70 | 10% | 89% | |
| 71 | 17% | 79% | |
| 72 | 17% | 62% | Median |
| 73 | 21% | 46% | |
| 74 | 11% | 25% | Last Result |
| 75 | 7% | 13% | |
| 76 | 2% | 7% | |
| 77 | 3% | 4% | |
| 78 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 1.5% | 99.1% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98% | |
| 68 | 4% | 95% | Majority |
| 69 | 7% | 91% | |
| 70 | 13% | 84% | |
| 71 | 15% | 71% | |
| 72 | 20% | 56% | Median |
| 73 | 17% | 37% | |
| 74 | 9% | 20% | |
| 75 | 6% | 10% | |
| 76 | 2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 6% | 94% | |
| 63 | 10% | 88% | |
| 64 | 18% | 78% | |
| 65 | 24% | 60% | Median |
| 66 | 16% | 36% | Last Result |
| 67 | 8% | 20% | |
| 68 | 6% | 12% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 7% | |
| 70 | 3% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 58 | 3% | 97% | |
| 59 | 6% | 93% | |
| 60 | 9% | 88% | |
| 61 | 17% | 79% | Median |
| 62 | 23% | 63% | |
| 63 | 18% | 39% | |
| 64 | 9% | 21% | |
| 65 | 6% | 12% | Last Result |
| 66 | 3% | 6% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 68 | 0.7% | 1.2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 50 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 51 | 3% | 96% | |
| 52 | 5% | 93% | |
| 53 | 12% | 87% | |
| 54 | 21% | 75% | Median |
| 55 | 17% | 54% | |
| 56 | 17% | 37% | |
| 57 | 11% | 20% | Last Result |
| 58 | 5% | 10% | |
| 59 | 2% | 5% | |
| 60 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 45 | 3% | 98% | |
| 46 | 5% | 95% | |
| 47 | 11% | 90% | |
| 48 | 14% | 79% | |
| 49 | 22% | 64% | Median |
| 50 | 18% | 43% | |
| 51 | 9% | 24% | |
| 52 | 6% | 15% | |
| 53 | 5% | 9% | |
| 54 | 3% | 4% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinòmetre
- Commissioner(s): CEO
- Fieldwork period: 4–25 March 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1050
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.17%