Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 1–5 July 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 26.5% | 25.0–28.1% | 24.6–28.5% | 24.3–28.9% | 23.6–29.6% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 20.0% | 18.7–21.4% | 18.3–21.8% | 18.0–22.1% | 17.4–22.8% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 16.5% | 15.3–17.8% | 15.0–18.2% | 14.7–18.5% | 14.1–19.2% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 16.5% | 15.3–17.8% | 15.0–18.2% | 14.7–18.5% | 14.1–19.2% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2–8.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.4–9.0% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.1–7.2% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.8–5.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 41 | 38–43 | 37–44 | 37–44 | 35–45 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 26 | 25–29 | 25–30 | 24–31 | 24–31 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 23 | 20–25 | 20–26 | 19–26 | 19–27 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 26 | 24–28 | 23–29 | 23–30 | 23–31 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 3 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 2–6 | 0–7 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 37 | 4% | 98% | |
| 38 | 7% | 94% | |
| 39 | 16% | 87% | |
| 40 | 13% | 71% | |
| 41 | 30% | 58% | Median |
| 42 | 15% | 28% | |
| 43 | 7% | 13% | |
| 44 | 4% | 6% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 14% | 97% | |
| 26 | 34% | 83% | Median |
| 27 | 24% | 48% | |
| 28 | 9% | 25% | |
| 29 | 7% | 16% | |
| 30 | 6% | 9% | |
| 31 | 2% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 8% | 97% | |
| 21 | 13% | 90% | |
| 22 | 27% | 77% | |
| 23 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 24 | 16% | 40% | |
| 25 | 14% | 23% | |
| 26 | 8% | 9% | |
| 27 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 11% | 95% | |
| 25 | 21% | 84% | |
| 26 | 39% | 63% | Median |
| 27 | 9% | 24% | |
| 28 | 6% | 16% | |
| 29 | 6% | 9% | |
| 30 | 2% | 4% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 98% | |
| 7 | 23% | 90% | |
| 8 | 52% | 68% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 9% | 16% | |
| 10 | 6% | 7% | |
| 11 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 2% | 98% | |
| 6 | 11% | 95% | |
| 7 | 39% | 84% | Median |
| 8 | 42% | 46% | |
| 9 | 3% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.5% | |
| 2 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 3 | 55% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 8% | 41% | Last Result |
| 5 | 28% | 33% | |
| 6 | 4% | 5% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 75 | 100% | 72–78 | 71–79 | 71–79 | 69–81 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 74 | 99.9% | 72–77 | 71–78 | 70–79 | 69–80 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 74 | 99.8% | 71–77 | 70–77 | 70–78 | 68–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 66 | 29% | 64–69 | 63–70 | 63–71 | 61–72 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 61 | 0.2% | 58–64 | 58–65 | 57–65 | 56–67 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 53 | 0% | 51–56 | 50–57 | 49–58 | 48–59 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 49 | 0% | 46–51 | 45–52 | 44–52 | 43–54 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 71 | 4% | 98% | |
| 72 | 5% | 94% | |
| 73 | 9% | 89% | |
| 74 | 14% | 80% | |
| 75 | 25% | 66% | Median |
| 76 | 16% | 41% | |
| 77 | 13% | 26% | |
| 78 | 7% | 13% | |
| 79 | 4% | 5% | |
| 80 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 71 | 6% | 97% | |
| 72 | 10% | 90% | |
| 73 | 16% | 81% | |
| 74 | 18% | 64% | Last Result |
| 75 | 21% | 47% | Median |
| 76 | 11% | 26% | |
| 77 | 7% | 15% | |
| 78 | 5% | 8% | |
| 79 | 2% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.5% | 99.3% | |
| 70 | 4% | 98% | Last Result |
| 71 | 7% | 94% | |
| 72 | 15% | 87% | |
| 73 | 16% | 72% | |
| 74 | 21% | 56% | Median |
| 75 | 16% | 35% | |
| 76 | 8% | 19% | |
| 77 | 6% | 11% | |
| 78 | 3% | 5% | |
| 79 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 1.5% | 99.1% | |
| 63 | 4% | 98% | |
| 64 | 9% | 94% | |
| 65 | 19% | 85% | |
| 66 | 16% | 66% | Last Result |
| 67 | 21% | 50% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 29% | Majority |
| 69 | 7% | 17% | |
| 70 | 6% | 10% | |
| 71 | 3% | 4% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 3% | 98% | |
| 58 | 6% | 95% | |
| 59 | 8% | 89% | |
| 60 | 16% | 81% | Median |
| 61 | 21% | 65% | |
| 62 | 16% | 44% | |
| 63 | 15% | 28% | |
| 64 | 7% | 13% | |
| 65 | 4% | 6% | Last Result |
| 66 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 50 | 6% | 96% | |
| 51 | 8% | 91% | |
| 52 | 15% | 83% | Median |
| 53 | 20% | 68% | |
| 54 | 16% | 47% | |
| 55 | 14% | 31% | |
| 56 | 9% | 17% | |
| 57 | 6% | 8% | Last Result |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 43 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 45 | 6% | 97% | |
| 46 | 9% | 91% | |
| 47 | 13% | 82% | |
| 48 | 18% | 70% | |
| 49 | 27% | 52% | Median |
| 50 | 14% | 25% | |
| 51 | 6% | 11% | |
| 52 | 3% | 5% | |
| 53 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): El Periódico
- Fieldwork period: 1–5 July 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1422
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.69%