Opinion Poll by GESOP for CEO, 25–17 July 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 26.5% | 24.8–28.3% | 24.3–28.8% | 23.9–29.2% | 23.1–30.1% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 18.7% | 17.2–20.3% | 16.8–20.7% | 16.4–21.1% | 15.7–21.9% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 17.0% | 15.6–18.6% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.9–19.4% | 14.2–20.2% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 16.6% | 15.2–18.1% | 14.8–18.6% | 14.4–18.9% | 13.8–19.7% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.4–10.8% | 8.1–11.1% | 7.9–11.5% | 7.4–12.1% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.7–7.3% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.3–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 39 | 37–43 | 36–44 | 35–44 | 34–46 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 25 | 23–27 | 23–28 | 22–28 | 20–30 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 24 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 20–27 | 19–28 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 26 | 23–29 | 23–29 | 23–30 | 21–31 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 11 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–16 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–9 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 3 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 36 | 5% | 97% | |
| 37 | 13% | 92% | |
| 38 | 14% | 79% | |
| 39 | 19% | 66% | Median |
| 40 | 16% | 46% | |
| 41 | 12% | 30% | |
| 42 | 8% | 19% | |
| 43 | 5% | 11% | |
| 44 | 3% | 6% | |
| 45 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 99.1% | |
| 22 | 3% | 98% | |
| 23 | 9% | 95% | |
| 24 | 26% | 87% | |
| 25 | 33% | 61% | Median |
| 26 | 17% | 27% | |
| 27 | 5% | 10% | |
| 28 | 3% | 5% | |
| 29 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 7% | 98% | |
| 21 | 8% | 91% | |
| 22 | 11% | 83% | |
| 23 | 16% | 73% | |
| 24 | 31% | 57% | Median |
| 25 | 10% | 27% | |
| 26 | 11% | 17% | |
| 27 | 4% | 6% | |
| 28 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 29 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 23 | 10% | 98% | |
| 24 | 17% | 88% | |
| 25 | 10% | 71% | |
| 26 | 22% | 61% | Median |
| 27 | 10% | 39% | |
| 28 | 10% | 29% | |
| 29 | 15% | 19% | |
| 30 | 3% | 4% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 8% | 98% | |
| 10 | 8% | 90% | |
| 11 | 36% | 82% | Median |
| 12 | 14% | 45% | |
| 13 | 19% | 32% | |
| 14 | 11% | 12% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 12% | 98% | Last Result |
| 5 | 8% | 86% | |
| 6 | 12% | 78% | |
| 7 | 39% | 66% | Median |
| 8 | 25% | 27% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 90% | |
| 2 | 17% | 90% | |
| 3 | 55% | 73% | Median |
| 4 | 7% | 18% | Last Result |
| 5 | 9% | 11% | |
| 6 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 77 | 100% | 74–80 | 73–81 | 73–82 | 71–84 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 76 | 100% | 73–80 | 72–81 | 71–82 | 69–83 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 72 | 97% | 69–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 66–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 66 | 20% | 63–69 | 62–70 | 61–71 | 59–72 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 63 | 3% | 60–66 | 59–67 | 58–68 | 56–69 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 51 | 0% | 48–54 | 47–55 | 47–56 | 45–57 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 51 | 0% | 48–54 | 47–55 | 46–56 | 45–58 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 72 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 73 | 3% | 98% | |
| 74 | 7% | 95% | Last Result |
| 75 | 11% | 88% | |
| 76 | 19% | 77% | Median |
| 77 | 13% | 58% | |
| 78 | 17% | 45% | |
| 79 | 10% | 28% | |
| 80 | 9% | 18% | |
| 81 | 5% | 9% | |
| 82 | 2% | 4% | |
| 83 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 100% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 71 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 72 | 4% | 96% | |
| 73 | 9% | 92% | |
| 74 | 12% | 83% | |
| 75 | 20% | 71% | Median |
| 76 | 14% | 51% | |
| 77 | 11% | 37% | |
| 78 | 8% | 26% | |
| 79 | 7% | 18% | |
| 80 | 5% | 11% | |
| 81 | 3% | 6% | |
| 82 | 2% | 3% | |
| 83 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 94% | |
| 70 | 11% | 88% | Last Result |
| 71 | 15% | 76% | |
| 72 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 73 | 15% | 44% | |
| 74 | 13% | 28% | |
| 75 | 7% | 16% | |
| 76 | 4% | 8% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 3% | 98% | |
| 62 | 5% | 95% | |
| 63 | 9% | 90% | |
| 64 | 14% | 81% | |
| 65 | 17% | 68% | Median |
| 66 | 16% | 50% | Last Result |
| 67 | 14% | 35% | |
| 68 | 9% | 20% | Majority |
| 69 | 7% | 12% | |
| 70 | 3% | 5% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 4% | 96% | |
| 60 | 7% | 92% | |
| 61 | 13% | 84% | |
| 62 | 15% | 72% | |
| 63 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 64 | 15% | 39% | |
| 65 | 11% | 24% | Last Result |
| 66 | 6% | 12% | |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 47 | 4% | 98% | |
| 48 | 6% | 94% | |
| 49 | 9% | 88% | |
| 50 | 12% | 79% | |
| 51 | 19% | 66% | |
| 52 | 21% | 48% | Median |
| 53 | 13% | 27% | |
| 54 | 8% | 14% | |
| 55 | 3% | 6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 3% | |
| 57 | 0.8% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 47 | 3% | 97% | |
| 48 | 7% | 94% | |
| 49 | 11% | 87% | |
| 50 | 17% | 76% | Median |
| 51 | 18% | 59% | |
| 52 | 16% | 41% | |
| 53 | 9% | 25% | |
| 54 | 6% | 15% | |
| 55 | 5% | 9% | |
| 56 | 3% | 5% | |
| 57 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): CEO
- Fieldwork period: 25–17 July 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1050
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.56%