Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 20 August 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 26.4% | 24.7–28.2% | 24.2–28.8% | 23.8–29.2% | 22.9–30.1% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 20.3% | 18.7–22.0% | 18.3–22.5% | 17.9–22.9% | 17.2–23.7% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 15.5% | 14.1–17.1% | 13.7–17.5% | 13.4–17.9% | 12.7–18.7% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 14.5% | 13.2–16.0% | 12.8–16.4% | 12.5–16.8% | 11.8–17.6% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.2–8.3% | 5.9–8.6% | 5.7–8.9% | 5.2–9.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 41 | 37–43 | 37–44 | 35–44 | 35–46 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 27 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–31 | 24–33 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 24 | 23–26 | 22–27 | 21–29 | 19–30 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 20 | 18–22 | 17–23 | 17–24 | 16–25 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 4–11 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| Vox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 36 | 2% | 97% | |
| 37 | 8% | 95% | |
| 38 | 7% | 87% | |
| 39 | 12% | 80% | |
| 40 | 14% | 68% | |
| 41 | 27% | 54% | Median |
| 42 | 15% | 27% | |
| 43 | 7% | 12% | |
| 44 | 3% | 5% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 25 | 11% | 97% | |
| 26 | 25% | 86% | |
| 27 | 24% | 61% | Median |
| 28 | 12% | 36% | |
| 29 | 6% | 24% | |
| 30 | 8% | 18% | |
| 31 | 7% | 10% | |
| 32 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 21 | 2% | 98% | |
| 22 | 3% | 96% | |
| 23 | 26% | 93% | |
| 24 | 20% | 67% | Median |
| 25 | 21% | 48% | |
| 26 | 18% | 26% | |
| 27 | 3% | 8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 5% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 3% | 98% | |
| 18 | 12% | 95% | |
| 19 | 32% | 83% | |
| 20 | 36% | 50% | Median |
| 21 | 4% | 15% | |
| 22 | 5% | 11% | |
| 23 | 3% | 6% | |
| 24 | 2% | 3% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 8% | 96% | |
| 7 | 21% | 88% | |
| 8 | 44% | 67% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 9% | 23% | |
| 10 | 12% | 14% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.5% | 99.2% | |
| 6 | 6% | 98.7% | |
| 7 | 20% | 92% | |
| 8 | 55% | 73% | Median |
| 9 | 13% | 18% | |
| 10 | 3% | 5% | |
| 11 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 5 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 15% | 96% | |
| 7 | 45% | 81% | Median |
| 8 | 7% | 36% | |
| 9 | 26% | 29% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 96% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 4% | |
| 2 | 3% | 4% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 75 | 100% | 73–78 | 71–79 | 71–80 | 69–82 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 73 | 98% | 70–76 | 68–76 | 68–77 | 66–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 73 | 98% | 69–75 | 68–76 | 68–77 | 66–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 65 | 11% | 62–68 | 61–68 | 60–69 | 58–70 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 62 | 2% | 59–65 | 58–67 | 58–67 | 57–69 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 54 | 0% | 52–58 | 51–59 | 50–59 | 49–61 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 54 | 0% | 52–58 | 51–59 | 50–59 | 49–61 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 48 | 0% | 45–51 | 44–52 | 43–52 | 42–54 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 100% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 71 | 3% | 98% | |
| 72 | 3% | 95% | |
| 73 | 7% | 91% | |
| 74 | 12% | 84% | |
| 75 | 25% | 72% | |
| 76 | 16% | 47% | Median |
| 77 | 10% | 31% | |
| 78 | 12% | 21% | |
| 79 | 4% | 9% | |
| 80 | 3% | 5% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 68 | 4% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 4% | 94% | |
| 70 | 9% | 90% | Last Result |
| 71 | 12% | 81% | |
| 72 | 16% | 69% | |
| 73 | 18% | 53% | Median |
| 74 | 12% | 35% | |
| 75 | 13% | 23% | |
| 76 | 6% | 10% | |
| 77 | 3% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 68 | 3% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 95% | |
| 70 | 9% | 89% | |
| 71 | 8% | 79% | |
| 72 | 15% | 71% | |
| 73 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 74 | 15% | 39% | Last Result |
| 75 | 14% | 24% | |
| 76 | 6% | 10% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 5% | 95% | |
| 62 | 7% | 91% | |
| 63 | 7% | 84% | |
| 64 | 23% | 77% | |
| 65 | 20% | 54% | Median |
| 66 | 10% | 34% | Last Result |
| 67 | 14% | 24% | |
| 68 | 6% | 11% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 58 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 59 | 6% | 95% | |
| 60 | 13% | 89% | |
| 61 | 12% | 76% | |
| 62 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 63 | 16% | 45% | |
| 64 | 12% | 29% | |
| 65 | 9% | 18% | Last Result |
| 66 | 4% | 9% | |
| 67 | 4% | 6% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 51 | 7% | 97% | |
| 52 | 16% | 90% | |
| 53 | 15% | 74% | |
| 54 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 55 | 11% | 45% | |
| 56 | 13% | 34% | |
| 57 | 10% | 21% | Last Result |
| 58 | 5% | 11% | |
| 59 | 4% | 6% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 51 | 6% | 97% | |
| 52 | 16% | 91% | |
| 53 | 15% | 75% | |
| 54 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 55 | 11% | 46% | |
| 56 | 13% | 35% | |
| 57 | 10% | 22% | Last Result |
| 58 | 5% | 12% | |
| 59 | 4% | 7% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 44 | 3% | 96% | |
| 45 | 8% | 93% | |
| 46 | 9% | 85% | |
| 47 | 9% | 77% | |
| 48 | 20% | 68% | |
| 49 | 17% | 48% | Median |
| 50 | 17% | 30% | |
| 51 | 8% | 14% | |
| 52 | 3% | 6% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: electoPanel
- Commissioner(s): electomania.es
- Fieldwork period: 20 August 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.05%