Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 20 August 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 26.4% 24.7–28.2% 24.2–28.8% 23.8–29.2% 22.9–30.1%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 20.3% 18.7–22.0% 18.3–22.5% 17.9–22.9% 17.2–23.7%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 15.5% 14.1–17.1% 13.7–17.5% 13.4–17.9% 12.7–18.7%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 14.5% 13.2–16.0% 12.8–16.4% 12.5–16.8% 11.8–17.6%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.1% 6.2–8.3% 5.9–8.6% 5.7–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Partit Popular 4.2% 6.0% 5.1–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.2%
Vox 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 41 37–43 37–44 35–44 35–46
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 27 25–30 25–31 24–31 24–33
Junts per Catalunya 34 24 23–26 22–27 21–29 19–30
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 20 18–22 17–23 17–24 16–25
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 6–10 6–10 5–10 5–11
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 8 7–9 6–9 6–10 4–11
Partit Popular 4 7 6–9 6–9 5–10 5–10
Vox 0 0 0 0 0–2 0–3

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0% 100%  
34 0.3% 99.9%  
35 2% 99.7%  
36 2% 97%  
37 8% 95%  
38 7% 87%  
39 12% 80%  
40 14% 68%  
41 27% 54% Median
42 15% 27%  
43 7% 12%  
44 3% 5%  
45 1.2% 2%  
46 0.4% 0.8%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.2% 99.9%  
24 3% 99.7%  
25 11% 97%  
26 25% 86%  
27 24% 61% Median
28 12% 36%  
29 6% 24%  
30 8% 18%  
31 7% 10%  
32 1.3% 2%  
33 0.7% 0.8%  
34 0.1% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.2% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.7%  
20 2% 99.4%  
21 2% 98%  
22 3% 96%  
23 26% 93%  
24 20% 67% Median
25 21% 48%  
26 18% 26%  
27 3% 8%  
28 2% 5%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.7% 0.9%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.1% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.8%  
17 3% 98%  
18 12% 95%  
19 32% 83%  
20 36% 50% Median
21 4% 15%  
22 5% 11%  
23 3% 6%  
24 2% 3%  
25 0.9% 1.1%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 8% 96%  
7 21% 88%  
8 44% 67% Last Result, Median
9 9% 23%  
10 12% 14%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.8% 100% Last Result
5 0.5% 99.2%  
6 6% 98.7%  
7 20% 92%  
8 55% 73% Median
9 13% 18%  
10 3% 5%  
11 1.5% 2%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.2% 100%  
4 0.2% 99.8% Last Result
5 3% 99.6%  
6 15% 96%  
7 45% 81% Median
8 7% 36%  
9 26% 29%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.1% 0.3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 4%  
2 3% 4%  
3 1.0% 1.0%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 75 100% 73–78 71–79 71–80 69–82
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 73 98% 70–76 68–76 68–77 66–78
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 73 98% 69–75 68–76 68–77 66–78
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 65 11% 62–68 61–68 60–69 58–70
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 62 2% 59–65 58–67 58–67 57–69
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 54 0% 52–58 51–59 50–59 49–61
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 54 0% 52–58 51–59 50–59 49–61
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 48 0% 45–51 44–52 43–52 42–54

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 100% Majority
69 0.6% 99.8%  
70 2% 99.2%  
71 3% 98%  
72 3% 95%  
73 7% 91%  
74 12% 84%  
75 25% 72%  
76 16% 47% Median
77 10% 31%  
78 12% 21%  
79 4% 9%  
80 3% 5%  
81 1.1% 2%  
82 0.6% 0.8%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.6% 99.8%  
67 1.5% 99.2%  
68 4% 98% Majority
69 4% 94%  
70 9% 90% Last Result
71 12% 81%  
72 16% 69%  
73 18% 53% Median
74 12% 35%  
75 13% 23%  
76 6% 10%  
77 3% 4%  
78 0.9% 1.3%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.8%  
67 1.1% 99.1%  
68 3% 98% Majority
69 6% 95%  
70 9% 89%  
71 8% 79%  
72 15% 71%  
73 17% 56% Median
74 15% 39% Last Result
75 14% 24%  
76 6% 10%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.6% 1.0%  
79 0.3% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.6% 99.9%  
59 1.3% 99.3%  
60 3% 98%  
61 5% 95%  
62 7% 91%  
63 7% 84%  
64 23% 77%  
65 20% 54% Median
66 10% 34% Last Result
67 14% 24%  
68 6% 11% Majority
69 3% 4%  
70 1.1% 2%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 1.0% 99.6%  
58 4% 98.5%  
59 6% 95%  
60 13% 89%  
61 12% 76%  
62 18% 63% Median
63 16% 45%  
64 12% 29%  
65 9% 18% Last Result
66 4% 9%  
67 4% 6%  
68 1.3% 2% Majority
69 0.6% 0.7%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.7%  
50 2% 99.2%  
51 7% 97%  
52 16% 90%  
53 15% 74%  
54 14% 59% Median
55 11% 45%  
56 13% 34%  
57 10% 21% Last Result
58 5% 11%  
59 4% 6%  
60 1.1% 2%  
61 0.6% 0.8%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 2% 99.3%  
51 6% 97%  
52 16% 91%  
53 15% 75%  
54 14% 60% Median
55 11% 46%  
56 13% 35%  
57 10% 22% Last Result
58 5% 12%  
59 4% 7%  
60 1.2% 2%  
61 0.7% 0.9%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.6% 99.8%  
43 3% 99.3%  
44 3% 96%  
45 8% 93%  
46 9% 85%  
47 9% 77%  
48 20% 68%  
49 17% 48% Median
50 17% 30%  
51 8% 14%  
52 3% 6%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.6% 1.0%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations