Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 11 September 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 25.3% | 23.6–27.1% | 23.1–27.6% | 22.7–28.1% | 21.9–29.0% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 20.1% | 18.5–21.8% | 18.1–22.3% | 17.7–22.7% | 17.0–23.5% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 15.8% | 14.4–17.4% | 14.0–17.8% | 13.7–18.2% | 13.0–19.0% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 15.2% | 13.8–16.8% | 13.4–17.2% | 13.1–17.6% | 12.5–18.3% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.7–10.0% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.4% | 5.2–7.7% | 5.0–8.0% | 4.6–8.6% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.8–7.5% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.8% | 1.0–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 38 | 35–42 | 35–42 | 34–43 | 33–45 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 27 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–31 | 23–32 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 25 | 23–27 | 22–29 | 21–29 | 20–31 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 20 | 19–23 | 18–24 | 18–25 | 17–26 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 5–13 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 4–9 | 4–10 |
| Vox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 35 | 12% | 97% | |
| 36 | 8% | 85% | |
| 37 | 12% | 77% | |
| 38 | 17% | 65% | Median |
| 39 | 16% | 48% | |
| 40 | 8% | 32% | |
| 41 | 13% | 24% | |
| 42 | 7% | 11% | |
| 43 | 2% | 4% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 25 | 14% | 96% | |
| 26 | 27% | 81% | |
| 27 | 18% | 54% | Median |
| 28 | 11% | 36% | |
| 29 | 10% | 25% | |
| 30 | 9% | 15% | |
| 31 | 5% | 6% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 1.3% | 98.8% | |
| 22 | 3% | 97% | |
| 23 | 17% | 94% | |
| 24 | 17% | 77% | |
| 25 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 26 | 25% | 38% | |
| 27 | 5% | 13% | |
| 28 | 3% | 8% | |
| 29 | 3% | 5% | |
| 30 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 6% | 99.0% | |
| 19 | 26% | 93% | |
| 20 | 25% | 68% | Median |
| 21 | 13% | 43% | |
| 22 | 14% | 30% | |
| 23 | 7% | 16% | |
| 24 | 5% | 9% | |
| 25 | 3% | 4% | |
| 26 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 7 | 10% | 97% | |
| 8 | 39% | 86% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 16% | 47% | |
| 10 | 19% | 31% | |
| 11 | 10% | 12% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 5 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 6% | 98% | |
| 7 | 39% | 91% | |
| 8 | 8% | 53% | Median |
| 9 | 35% | 45% | |
| 10 | 9% | 10% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 6% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 5 | 5% | 94% | |
| 6 | 13% | 89% | |
| 7 | 36% | 76% | Median |
| 8 | 35% | 40% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 74 | 99.8% | 71–78 | 70–78 | 69–79 | 68–81 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 72 | 96% | 69–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 66–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 70 | 84% | 67–74 | 66–75 | 66–75 | 64–77 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 65 | 15% | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–69 | 58–71 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 63 | 6% | 60–67 | 59–68 | 58–68 | 57–70 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 55 | 0% | 52–59 | 52–60 | 51–61 | 50–63 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 56 | 0% | 52–59 | 52–60 | 51–61 | 50–63 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 47 | 0% | 44–50 | 43–51 | 42–52 | 41–54 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 70 | 4% | 97% | |
| 71 | 8% | 93% | |
| 72 | 9% | 84% | |
| 73 | 11% | 75% | Median |
| 74 | 16% | 65% | |
| 75 | 16% | 49% | |
| 76 | 14% | 33% | |
| 77 | 8% | 19% | |
| 78 | 6% | 11% | |
| 79 | 2% | 5% | |
| 80 | 2% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 68 | 4% | 96% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 91% | |
| 70 | 10% | 85% | |
| 71 | 14% | 75% | Median |
| 72 | 15% | 61% | |
| 73 | 16% | 46% | |
| 74 | 14% | 30% | Last Result |
| 75 | 8% | 17% | |
| 76 | 5% | 9% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 66 | 4% | 98% | |
| 67 | 9% | 93% | |
| 68 | 10% | 84% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 74% | |
| 70 | 14% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 71 | 11% | 50% | |
| 72 | 14% | 38% | |
| 73 | 11% | 25% | |
| 74 | 6% | 13% | |
| 75 | 5% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 5% | 97% | |
| 61 | 6% | 93% | |
| 62 | 12% | 87% | |
| 63 | 14% | 75% | Median |
| 64 | 11% | 61% | |
| 65 | 14% | 50% | Last Result |
| 66 | 11% | 36% | |
| 67 | 10% | 25% | |
| 68 | 9% | 15% | Majority |
| 69 | 4% | 6% | |
| 70 | 2% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 59 | 5% | 97% | |
| 60 | 6% | 92% | |
| 61 | 11% | 86% | |
| 62 | 9% | 75% | |
| 63 | 18% | 66% | Median |
| 64 | 13% | 48% | |
| 65 | 15% | 35% | |
| 66 | 9% | 20% | Last Result |
| 67 | 5% | 11% | |
| 68 | 4% | 6% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 52 | 8% | 97% | |
| 53 | 10% | 89% | |
| 54 | 14% | 80% | |
| 55 | 16% | 66% | Median |
| 56 | 10% | 50% | |
| 57 | 13% | 39% | Last Result |
| 58 | 9% | 26% | |
| 59 | 10% | 17% | |
| 60 | 4% | 7% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 52 | 7% | 97% | |
| 53 | 10% | 90% | |
| 54 | 14% | 80% | |
| 55 | 16% | 66% | Median |
| 56 | 10% | 50% | |
| 57 | 13% | 40% | Last Result |
| 58 | 9% | 27% | |
| 59 | 10% | 18% | |
| 60 | 4% | 8% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 43 | 6% | 97% | |
| 44 | 5% | 91% | |
| 45 | 12% | 86% | |
| 46 | 14% | 74% | Median |
| 47 | 13% | 61% | |
| 48 | 15% | 48% | |
| 49 | 17% | 33% | |
| 50 | 9% | 16% | |
| 51 | 3% | 7% | |
| 52 | 2% | 4% | |
| 53 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: electoPanel
- Commissioner(s): electomania.es
- Fieldwork period: 11 September 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.94%