Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 1–5 October 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 24.1% | 22.1–26.2% | 21.5–26.8% | 21.0–27.3% | 20.1–28.4% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 19.8% | 18.0–21.9% | 17.5–22.4% | 17.1–22.9% | 16.2–23.9% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 19.0% | 17.2–21.0% | 16.7–21.6% | 16.3–22.0% | 15.4–23.0% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 15.0% | 13.4–16.9% | 13.0–17.4% | 12.6–17.9% | 11.9–18.8% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.9–7.2% | 4.6–7.6% | 4.4–7.9% | 4.0–8.6% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.5–6.8% | 4.3–7.1% | 4.0–7.4% | 3.6–8.1% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.4–6.6% | 4.1–7.0% | 3.9–7.3% | 3.5–7.9% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.2–3.3% | 1.0–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 37 | 34–41 | 33–41 | 32–42 | 30–44 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 26 | 25–30 | 24–31 | 24–32 | 22–33 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 27 | 25–30 | 23–31 | 22–31 | 21–33 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 24 | 21–26 | 20–27 | 19–29 | 18–30 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 6 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 4–10 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 4–10 | 3–11 |
| Vox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 32 | 2% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 33 | 2% | 97% | |
| 34 | 14% | 95% | |
| 35 | 14% | 81% | |
| 36 | 11% | 67% | |
| 37 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 38 | 14% | 43% | |
| 39 | 11% | 29% | |
| 40 | 6% | 18% | |
| 41 | 9% | 12% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 44 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 24 | 6% | 98% | |
| 25 | 17% | 92% | |
| 26 | 27% | 75% | Median |
| 27 | 13% | 47% | |
| 28 | 10% | 34% | |
| 29 | 8% | 24% | |
| 30 | 7% | 16% | |
| 31 | 5% | 8% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 22 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 23 | 2% | 97% | |
| 24 | 3% | 95% | |
| 25 | 12% | 91% | |
| 26 | 24% | 80% | |
| 27 | 27% | 55% | Median |
| 28 | 11% | 28% | |
| 29 | 7% | 18% | |
| 30 | 5% | 11% | |
| 31 | 4% | 6% | |
| 32 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 34 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 20 | 4% | 97% | |
| 21 | 5% | 93% | |
| 22 | 7% | 89% | |
| 23 | 26% | 81% | |
| 24 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 25 | 15% | 38% | |
| 26 | 14% | 23% | |
| 27 | 4% | 9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 5% | |
| 29 | 2% | 3% | |
| 30 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 31 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 8% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 33% | 92% | |
| 6 | 21% | 58% | Median |
| 7 | 17% | 37% | |
| 8 | 16% | 20% | Last Result |
| 9 | 2% | 4% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 5 | 12% | 95% | |
| 6 | 20% | 83% | |
| 7 | 43% | 63% | Median |
| 8 | 4% | 20% | |
| 9 | 14% | 16% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 8% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 5 | 3% | 91% | |
| 6 | 13% | 88% | |
| 7 | 27% | 75% | Median |
| 8 | 38% | 48% | |
| 9 | 7% | 9% | |
| 10 | 2% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 4% | 8% | |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 70 | 83% | 67–74 | 65–75 | 65–76 | 63–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 68 | 59% | 64–72 | 64–72 | 62–73 | 60–75 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 67 | 46% | 63–70 | 63–71 | 62–73 | 60–75 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 67 | 38% | 63–70 | 62–71 | 62–72 | 59–75 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 61 | 0.9% | 57–64 | 56–65 | 56–66 | 53–68 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 61 | 1.0% | 57–64 | 57–65 | 56–66 | 53–68 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 61 | 1.1% | 57–64 | 57–65 | 56–66 | 54–69 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 43 | 0% | 40–47 | 39–48 | 38–49 | 36–50 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 65 | 3% | 98% | |
| 66 | 4% | 95% | |
| 67 | 7% | 90% | |
| 68 | 13% | 83% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 71% | Median |
| 70 | 17% | 58% | |
| 71 | 11% | 41% | |
| 72 | 7% | 30% | |
| 73 | 8% | 23% | |
| 74 | 7% | 15% | |
| 75 | 5% | 8% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 1.4% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 62 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 2% | 97% | |
| 64 | 6% | 95% | |
| 65 | 8% | 89% | |
| 66 | 11% | 81% | |
| 67 | 10% | 70% | |
| 68 | 12% | 59% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 14% | 47% | |
| 70 | 13% | 33% | Last Result |
| 71 | 9% | 20% | |
| 72 | 6% | 11% | |
| 73 | 3% | 5% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 76 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 7% | 96% | |
| 64 | 6% | 89% | |
| 65 | 12% | 82% | |
| 66 | 10% | 71% | |
| 67 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 68 | 15% | 46% | Majority |
| 69 | 12% | 31% | |
| 70 | 9% | 19% | |
| 71 | 5% | 10% | |
| 72 | 2% | 5% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 1.5% | Last Result |
| 75 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 62 | 4% | 98% | |
| 63 | 7% | 94% | |
| 64 | 9% | 87% | |
| 65 | 13% | 78% | Last Result |
| 66 | 15% | 65% | Median |
| 67 | 12% | 50% | |
| 68 | 10% | 38% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 28% | |
| 70 | 7% | 17% | |
| 71 | 5% | 10% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 98.6% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 7% | 94% | Last Result |
| 58 | 10% | 87% | |
| 59 | 14% | 77% | |
| 60 | 12% | 63% | Median |
| 61 | 14% | 50% | |
| 62 | 12% | 36% | |
| 63 | 9% | 24% | |
| 64 | 7% | 15% | |
| 65 | 4% | 8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 4% | |
| 67 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 0.9% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 7% | 95% | Last Result |
| 58 | 9% | 88% | |
| 59 | 14% | 79% | |
| 60 | 12% | 65% | Median |
| 61 | 14% | 53% | |
| 62 | 12% | 39% | |
| 63 | 9% | 26% | |
| 64 | 7% | 17% | |
| 65 | 5% | 10% | |
| 66 | 2% | 5% | |
| 67 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 1.0% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 98.9% | |
| 56 | 3% | 98% | |
| 57 | 8% | 95% | |
| 58 | 9% | 88% | |
| 59 | 10% | 79% | |
| 60 | 13% | 69% | |
| 61 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 62 | 13% | 45% | |
| 63 | 14% | 32% | |
| 64 | 10% | 18% | |
| 65 | 5% | 8% | |
| 66 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 67 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 1.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98% | |
| 39 | 5% | 97% | |
| 40 | 8% | 91% | Last Result |
| 41 | 9% | 83% | |
| 42 | 15% | 74% | |
| 43 | 17% | 59% | Median |
| 44 | 12% | 42% | |
| 45 | 12% | 30% | |
| 46 | 6% | 18% | |
| 47 | 5% | 12% | |
| 48 | 4% | 7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 1–5 October 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 711
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.71%