Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 14–15 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 21.0–27.9%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 20.2% 18.6–21.9% 18.2–22.4% 17.8–22.8% 17.1–23.6%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 15.1% 13.7–16.6% 13.3–17.1% 13.0–17.5% 12.4–18.2%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.4–15.0% 11.1–15.3% 10.6–16.1%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 8.0% 7.0–9.2% 6.7–9.6% 6.5–9.9% 6.0–10.5%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 7.9% 6.9–9.1% 6.6–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 5.9–10.3%
Partit Popular 4.2% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Vox 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 37 34–40 34–41 33–41 32–43
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 27 25–30 24–31 24–32 23–33
Junts per Catalunya 34 23 22–26 21–27 20–27 18–29
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 18 16–19 14–20 14–21 13–22
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 9 8–11 7–12 7–12 6–13
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 11 9–13 8–13 8–13 8–15
Partit Popular 4 6 4–7 3–7 3–8 3–9
Vox 0 3 3–6 2–6 2–6 0–7

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.3% 99.9%  
32 2% 99.6% Last Result
33 3% 98%  
34 11% 95%  
35 14% 84%  
36 14% 71%  
37 13% 57% Median
38 20% 44%  
39 9% 24%  
40 7% 15%  
41 5% 8%  
42 1.2% 2%  
43 0.6% 1.0%  
44 0.4% 0.4%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0.6% 99.9%  
24 7% 99.3%  
25 15% 93%  
26 26% 78%  
27 12% 52% Median
28 17% 40%  
29 9% 24%  
30 8% 15%  
31 4% 7%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.6% 0.7%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.9% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.1%  
20 2% 98.5%  
21 4% 97%  
22 10% 93%  
23 35% 83% Median
24 15% 48%  
25 17% 32%  
26 6% 15%  
27 7% 9%  
28 1.1% 2%  
29 1.0% 1.4%  
30 0.3% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.6% 100%  
14 4% 99.3%  
15 4% 95%  
16 15% 91%  
17 14% 76%  
18 37% 61% Median
19 15% 24%  
20 5% 9%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.4% 0.7%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.3% 100%  
6 0.7% 99.7%  
7 7% 99.0%  
8 34% 92% Last Result
9 12% 58% Median
10 28% 46%  
11 11% 18%  
12 5% 7%  
13 2% 2%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.2% 100%  
8 9% 99.8%  
9 11% 91%  
10 27% 80%  
11 35% 53% Median
12 6% 18%  
13 9% 11%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0.6% 0.6%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 7% 99.9%  
4 7% 93% Last Result
5 12% 86%  
6 45% 74% Median
7 25% 30%  
8 3% 5%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 6% 98%  
3 49% 92% Median
4 11% 43%  
5 15% 32%  
6 15% 17%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 73 99.1% 70–77 69–78 68–78 67–80
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 71 93% 68–75 67–76 66–77 65–78
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 70 81% 67–73 66–75 65–75 64–77
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 60 0.3% 58–65 57–65 57–66 54–67
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 60 0.1% 56–63 56–64 55–65 53–67
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 54 0% 51–58 50–59 50–60 48–61
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 51 0% 48–54 47–55 46–56 44–57
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 46 0% 43–49 42–50 42–51 40–53

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.7% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.1% Majority
69 4% 97%  
70 8% 93%  
71 9% 85%  
72 14% 75%  
73 12% 61% Median
74 16% 49%  
75 14% 34%  
76 9% 20%  
77 4% 11%  
78 5% 7%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.6% 1.0%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.7% 99.6%  
66 2% 98.9%  
67 4% 97%  
68 8% 93% Majority
69 10% 85%  
70 11% 75% Last Result
71 18% 64% Median
72 14% 45%  
73 9% 32%  
74 10% 22%  
75 7% 12%  
76 3% 6%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.5%  
65 2% 98.9%  
66 4% 97%  
67 11% 92%  
68 13% 81% Majority
69 13% 69% Median
70 13% 55%  
71 13% 42%  
72 11% 29%  
73 9% 19%  
74 5% 10% Last Result
75 4% 5%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.7% 0.8%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.4% 99.7%  
55 0.6% 99.4%  
56 0.8% 98.8%  
57 5% 98%  
58 14% 93%  
59 16% 79%  
60 17% 63% Median
61 11% 45%  
62 5% 35%  
63 8% 29%  
64 10% 21%  
65 7% 11%  
66 3% 4% Last Result
67 0.7% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.3% Majority
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.4% 99.9%  
54 2% 99.4%  
55 3% 98%  
56 7% 95%  
57 6% 88%  
58 11% 82%  
59 13% 71%  
60 14% 58% Median
61 20% 43%  
62 8% 23%  
63 7% 15%  
64 4% 8%  
65 3% 4% Last Result
66 1.1% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.8% 99.8%  
49 1.3% 99.0%  
50 3% 98%  
51 7% 95%  
52 11% 88%  
53 11% 77%  
54 18% 65% Median
55 13% 47%  
56 13% 34%  
57 9% 21% Last Result
58 6% 12%  
59 3% 6%  
60 2% 3%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.6% 99.9%  
45 1.2% 99.3%  
46 2% 98%  
47 5% 96%  
48 10% 90%  
49 14% 80%  
50 13% 67%  
51 19% 53% Median
52 11% 34%  
53 12% 23%  
54 6% 11%  
55 3% 6%  
56 1.3% 3%  
57 1.4% 2% Last Result
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.8% Last Result
41 2% 99.5%  
42 6% 98%  
43 8% 92%  
44 11% 84%  
45 10% 73%  
46 14% 62% Median
47 16% 48%  
48 14% 32%  
49 10% 18%  
50 4% 8%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.3% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.7%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations