Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 16–19 October 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 24.5% 23.3–25.8% 23.0–26.1% 22.7–26.4% 22.1–27.1%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 17.6% 16.5–18.7% 16.2–19.1% 16.0–19.3% 15.5–19.9%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 15.1% 14.1–16.2% 13.8–16.5% 13.6–16.8% 13.1–17.3%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 12.3% 11.4–13.3% 11.1–13.6% 10.9–13.8% 10.5–14.3%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 10.5% 9.7–11.4% 9.4–11.7% 9.2–11.9% 8.8–12.4%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 8.2% 7.5–9.0% 7.3–9.3% 7.1–9.5% 6.7–9.9%
Partit Popular 4.2% 6.0% 5.4–6.7% 5.2–7.0% 5.0–7.1% 4.8–7.5%
Vox 0.0% 3.3% 2.8–3.9% 2.7–4.0% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 37 35–40 34–40 34–41 34–41
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 24 23–25 23–25 22–26 21–27
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 20 19–22 18–23 18–24 18–25
Junts per Catalunya 34 18 18–21 17–22 17–22 17–23
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 15 13–17 13–17 13–17 11–18
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 10 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–13
Partit Popular 4 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–10
Vox 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–5

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
32 0% 100% Last Result
33 0.3% 100%  
34 6% 99.7%  
35 10% 94%  
36 18% 83%  
37 17% 65% Median
38 13% 48%  
39 18% 35%  
40 13% 17%  
41 4% 4%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 1.1% 99.6%  
22 3% 98.5%  
23 23% 96%  
24 45% 72% Median
25 23% 27%  
26 3% 4%  
27 0.4% 0.6%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 5% 99.9%  
19 30% 94%  
20 20% 64% Median
21 25% 44%  
22 9% 18%  
23 5% 9%  
24 2% 4%  
25 1.3% 1.3%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.3% 99.9%  
17 9% 99.6%  
18 52% 91% Median
19 10% 38%  
20 13% 28%  
21 9% 15%  
22 3% 6%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0.7% 100%  
12 0.8% 99.3%  
13 9% 98.6%  
14 21% 90%  
15 27% 69% Median
16 25% 41%  
17 16% 16%  
18 0.6% 0.6%  
19 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 1.0% 100%  
8 21% 99.0% Last Result
9 10% 78%  
10 49% 68% Median
11 18% 19%  
12 0.8% 1.4%  
13 0.6% 0.6%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.6% 100%  
6 12% 99.4%  
7 63% 87% Median
8 8% 24%  
9 16% 16%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 0% 85%  
2 26% 85%  
3 56% 59% Median
4 3% 4%  
5 1.1% 1.2%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 71 97% 69–74 68–75 67–75 66–76
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 71 95% 68–74 68–74 67–75 66–76
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 66 23% 63–68 63–69 62–70 61–71
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 61 0.1% 59–64 58–65 58–65 57–67
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 56 0% 54–59 53–59 53–60 52–61
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 54 0% 52–57 51–57 50–58 50–59
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 51 0% 49–54 49–55 49–56 48–57
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 47 0% 44–50 44–50 43–51 42–52

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.9% 99.9%  
67 2% 99.0%  
68 4% 97% Majority
69 8% 93%  
70 13% 84% Last Result, Median
71 25% 71%  
72 17% 46%  
73 16% 29%  
74 8% 13%  
75 4% 5%  
76 1.1% 1.3%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 100%  
66 1.2% 99.8%  
67 3% 98.6%  
68 7% 95% Majority
69 16% 88%  
70 16% 72%  
71 12% 56% Median
72 11% 44%  
73 16% 33%  
74 13% 17%  
75 3% 4%  
76 1.2% 1.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.3% 100%  
61 1.1% 99.6%  
62 3% 98.5%  
63 7% 96%  
64 18% 89%  
65 12% 71% Median
66 17% 59%  
67 19% 42%  
68 14% 23% Majority
69 5% 8%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.6% 0.8%  
72 0.3% 0.3%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 2% 99.7%  
58 3% 98%  
59 13% 94%  
60 17% 81%  
61 21% 65% Median
62 20% 44%  
63 12% 24%  
64 6% 12%  
65 4% 6% Last Result
66 2% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.4% 100%  
52 2% 99.6%  
53 5% 98%  
54 14% 92%  
55 14% 78% Median
56 16% 65%  
57 22% 49%  
58 17% 27%  
59 6% 10%  
60 3% 4%  
61 1.0% 1.3%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 2% 99.7%  
51 6% 97%  
52 16% 92%  
53 17% 76%  
54 23% 59% Median
55 16% 36%  
56 10% 20%  
57 6% 10% Last Result
58 4% 5%  
59 0.7% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 2% 99.7%  
49 10% 98%  
50 18% 88%  
51 21% 70% Median
52 21% 49%  
53 13% 28%  
54 7% 15%  
55 6% 8%  
56 2% 3%  
57 0.5% 0.7% Last Result
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0% 100%  
42 0.6% 100%  
43 3% 99.4%  
44 9% 97%  
45 14% 88%  
46 17% 75%  
47 14% 58% Median
48 12% 44%  
49 19% 33%  
50 10% 14%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations