Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 18–22 November 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 21.2% | 19.4–23.3% | 18.9–23.8% | 18.4–24.3% | 17.6–25.3% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.2% | 17.5–21.2% | 17.0–21.7% | 16.6–22.2% | 15.7–23.2% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 16.8% | 15.2–18.7% | 14.7–19.2% | 14.3–19.7% | 13.5–20.6% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 11.6% | 10.2–13.2% | 9.8–13.7% | 9.4–14.1% | 8.8–14.9% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 8.7% | 7.5–10.2% | 7.2–10.6% | 6.9–11.0% | 6.4–11.7% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.5–9.1% | 6.2–9.4% | 6.0–9.8% | 5.5–10.5% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 6.5% | 5.4–7.8% | 5.1–8.1% | 4.9–8.5% | 4.5–9.1% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.7–6.9% | 4.4–7.2% | 4.2–7.5% | 3.8–8.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 32 | 28–35 | 28–35 | 27–36 | 26–38 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 26–33 | 26–34 | 26–35 | 24–37 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 23 | 19–25 | 18–26 | 18–26 | 17–27 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 15 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 12–19 | 12–20 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 12 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 9–15 | 7–15 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 5–13 |
| Vox | 0 | 8 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 5–12 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 5–9 | 4–9 | 4–10 | 3–11 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 28 | 8% | 97% | |
| 29 | 10% | 89% | |
| 30 | 14% | 79% | |
| 31 | 15% | 66% | |
| 32 | 11% | 51% | Last Result, Median |
| 33 | 14% | 40% | |
| 34 | 11% | 26% | |
| 35 | 10% | 14% | |
| 36 | 3% | 5% | |
| 37 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 26 | 8% | 98% | |
| 27 | 5% | 89% | |
| 28 | 6% | 85% | |
| 29 | 14% | 79% | |
| 30 | 9% | 64% | |
| 31 | 28% | 55% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 27% | |
| 33 | 4% | 11% | |
| 34 | 3% | 7% | Last Result |
| 35 | 2% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 18 | 3% | 98% | |
| 19 | 5% | 94% | |
| 20 | 9% | 89% | |
| 21 | 12% | 80% | |
| 22 | 7% | 68% | |
| 23 | 21% | 60% | Median |
| 24 | 23% | 39% | |
| 25 | 11% | 16% | |
| 26 | 4% | 5% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 17% | 97% | |
| 14 | 28% | 81% | |
| 15 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 16 | 18% | 40% | |
| 17 | 6% | 22% | |
| 18 | 12% | 16% | |
| 19 | 4% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 7% | 98% | |
| 10 | 22% | 91% | |
| 11 | 11% | 69% | |
| 12 | 37% | 57% | Median |
| 13 | 10% | 21% | |
| 14 | 7% | 11% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 7 | 14% | 95% | |
| 8 | 39% | 81% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 16% | 43% | |
| 10 | 10% | 27% | |
| 11 | 14% | 16% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 4% | 97% | |
| 7 | 35% | 92% | |
| 8 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 9 | 27% | 40% | |
| 10 | 9% | 13% | |
| 11 | 2% | 3% | |
| 12 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 5% | 99.4% | Last Result |
| 5 | 6% | 94% | |
| 6 | 10% | 88% | |
| 7 | 27% | 79% | |
| 8 | 38% | 51% | Median |
| 9 | 11% | 14% | |
| 10 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 70 | 85% | 67–74 | 66–75 | 65–76 | 63–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 69 | 73% | 65–73 | 64–74 | 64–75 | 62–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 63 | 5% | 59–67 | 58–67 | 57–68 | 55–70 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 62 | 2% | 58–66 | 57–67 | 56–67 | 55–69 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 65 | 58 | 0% | 54–62 | 53–62 | 52–64 | 51–65 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 57 | 0% | 53–61 | 52–62 | 52–63 | 50–65 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 49 | 0% | 45–53 | 45–54 | 44–54 | 42–56 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 40 | 0% | 37–44 | 36–44 | 35–45 | 34–47 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 4% | 96% | |
| 67 | 7% | 92% | |
| 68 | 13% | 85% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 72% | |
| 70 | 14% | 64% | |
| 71 | 12% | 50% | Median |
| 72 | 10% | 38% | |
| 73 | 10% | 27% | |
| 74 | 9% | 17% | Last Result |
| 75 | 5% | 9% | |
| 76 | 3% | 4% | |
| 77 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 64 | 4% | 98% | |
| 65 | 5% | 94% | |
| 66 | 6% | 89% | |
| 67 | 10% | 83% | |
| 68 | 15% | 73% | Majority |
| 69 | 14% | 58% | |
| 70 | 11% | 44% | Last Result |
| 71 | 12% | 33% | Median |
| 72 | 7% | 21% | |
| 73 | 6% | 14% | |
| 74 | 5% | 8% | |
| 75 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 57 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 58 | 3% | 96% | |
| 59 | 5% | 93% | |
| 60 | 9% | 88% | |
| 61 | 11% | 79% | |
| 62 | 12% | 67% | |
| 63 | 14% | 55% | Median |
| 64 | 11% | 42% | |
| 65 | 14% | 31% | |
| 66 | 7% | 17% | |
| 67 | 6% | 10% | |
| 68 | 3% | 5% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 55 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 56 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 57 | 4% | 97% | |
| 58 | 6% | 93% | |
| 59 | 7% | 87% | |
| 60 | 13% | 80% | |
| 61 | 12% | 67% | |
| 62 | 14% | 55% | |
| 63 | 11% | 41% | Median |
| 64 | 12% | 31% | |
| 65 | 8% | 19% | |
| 66 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 67 | 4% | 6% | |
| 68 | 1.4% | 2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 53 | 4% | 97% | |
| 54 | 7% | 93% | |
| 55 | 7% | 86% | |
| 56 | 11% | 79% | |
| 57 | 14% | 68% | |
| 58 | 13% | 54% | Median |
| 59 | 12% | 41% | |
| 60 | 12% | 28% | |
| 61 | 6% | 16% | |
| 62 | 5% | 10% | |
| 63 | 2% | 5% | |
| 64 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 51 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 52 | 4% | 98% | |
| 53 | 6% | 94% | |
| 54 | 6% | 88% | |
| 55 | 10% | 82% | |
| 56 | 13% | 72% | |
| 57 | 12% | 59% | Last Result |
| 58 | 11% | 47% | Median |
| 59 | 15% | 36% | |
| 60 | 10% | 21% | |
| 61 | 5% | 11% | |
| 62 | 3% | 6% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 1.2% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 44 | 3% | 98% | |
| 45 | 7% | 95% | |
| 46 | 6% | 88% | |
| 47 | 10% | 82% | |
| 48 | 10% | 72% | |
| 49 | 16% | 62% | |
| 50 | 15% | 46% | Median |
| 51 | 9% | 31% | |
| 52 | 11% | 22% | |
| 53 | 6% | 11% | |
| 54 | 3% | 5% | |
| 55 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 34 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 36 | 5% | 97% | |
| 37 | 9% | 92% | |
| 38 | 8% | 83% | |
| 39 | 13% | 75% | |
| 40 | 13% | 61% | Last Result, Median |
| 41 | 12% | 49% | |
| 42 | 16% | 37% | |
| 43 | 10% | 22% | |
| 44 | 7% | 11% | |
| 45 | 2% | 4% | |
| 46 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 18–22 November 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 744
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.10%