Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 27–30 November 2019

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 22.0% 20.6–23.5% 20.2–23.9% 19.9–24.2% 19.3–25.0%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 18.4% 17.1–19.8% 16.8–20.2% 16.5–20.6% 15.9–21.2%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 15.8% 14.6–17.1% 14.3–17.5% 14.0–17.8% 13.4–18.4%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 10.0% 9.0–11.1% 8.8–11.4% 8.5–11.7% 8.1–12.2%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 8.1% 7.2–9.1% 7.0–9.4% 6.8–9.6% 6.4–10.1%
Partit Popular 4.2% 7.9% 7.1–8.9% 6.8–9.2% 6.6–9.5% 6.2–10.0%
Vox 0.0% 7.5% 6.7–8.5% 6.4–8.8% 6.2–9.0% 5.9–9.5%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 7.2% 6.4–8.2% 6.2–8.5% 6.0–8.7% 5.6–9.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 33 31–36 30–36 30–37 29–38
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 25 24–27 23–28 23–28 22–29
Junts per Catalunya 34 24 23–27 23–28 22–28 21–29
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 14 12–15 11–16 11–17 11–17
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 9 8–11 8–11 7–11 7–13
Partit Popular 4 11 9–12 9–12 8–12 7–14
Vox 0 9 8–12 8–12 7–12 7–12
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 8 8–11 7–11 7–12 6–12

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.4% 100%  
29 1.2% 99.5%  
30 4% 98%  
31 8% 94%  
32 23% 86% Last Result
33 21% 63% Median
34 18% 42%  
35 11% 24%  
36 9% 13%  
37 3% 4%  
38 0.6% 0.8%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 1.0% 99.6%  
23 6% 98.6%  
24 23% 93%  
25 35% 70% Median
26 23% 35%  
27 6% 13%  
28 6% 7%  
29 0.4% 0.7%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.7% 99.7%  
22 2% 99.0%  
23 20% 97%  
24 30% 77% Median
25 14% 47%  
26 22% 34%  
27 6% 12%  
28 4% 6%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.3% 0.3%  
31 0% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.1% 99.9%  
11 9% 99.8%  
12 6% 91%  
13 14% 86%  
14 28% 72% Median
15 37% 44%  
16 4% 7%  
17 3% 3%  
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.1% 100%  
7 3% 99.9%  
8 37% 97% Last Result
9 26% 60% Median
10 18% 35%  
11 15% 17%  
12 1.0% 2%  
13 0.6% 0.6%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.9% 100%  
8 2% 99.1%  
9 17% 97%  
10 21% 80%  
11 33% 60% Median
12 24% 26%  
13 1.5% 2%  
14 0.9% 1.0%  
15 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 5% 100%  
8 15% 95%  
9 50% 80% Median
10 9% 30%  
11 11% 21%  
12 10% 11%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 2% 99.9%  
7 6% 98%  
8 51% 91% Median
9 21% 40%  
10 9% 20%  
11 6% 11%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 72 98% 70–75 68–76 68–76 66–77
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 68 52% 65–70 64–71 63–72 62–73
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 67 39% 65–70 64–71 63–71 62–72
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 58 0% 56–61 55–62 54–62 53–63
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 65 54 0% 51–56 50–57 50–58 48–59
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Vox – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 57 54 0% 51–57 51–57 50–58 49–59
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 57 45 0% 42–47 41–48 41–48 39–49
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 42 0% 40–45 39–46 38–47 37–48

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.5% 99.9%  
67 1.2% 99.4%  
68 3% 98% Majority
69 5% 95%  
70 15% 90% Last Result
71 16% 75% Median
72 18% 59%  
73 16% 42%  
74 13% 25%  
75 6% 12%  
76 5% 6%  
77 1.2% 2%  
78 0.4% 0.4%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.8% 99.8%  
63 2% 99.0%  
64 4% 97%  
65 8% 92%  
66 16% 84%  
67 16% 68% Median
68 21% 52% Majority
69 14% 31%  
70 9% 18%  
71 6% 8%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.6% 0.9%  
74 0.2% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.4% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.6%  
63 2% 98.9%  
64 5% 97%  
65 10% 91%  
66 24% 81% Median
67 18% 58%  
68 14% 39% Majority
69 12% 26%  
70 8% 13%  
71 3% 5%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 1.1% 99.6%  
54 3% 98.6%  
55 5% 96%  
56 17% 91%  
57 14% 74% Median
58 22% 60%  
59 14% 37%  
60 10% 23%  
61 7% 13%  
62 5% 6%  
63 1.0% 1.3%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1% Last Result
67 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 2% 99.4%  
50 4% 98%  
51 11% 93%  
52 13% 82%  
53 19% 69% Median
54 17% 51%  
55 14% 34%  
56 13% 20%  
57 4% 7%  
58 3% 3%  
59 0.6% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Vox – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.9%  
49 1.2% 99.5%  
50 3% 98%  
51 9% 95%  
52 12% 86%  
53 14% 74% Median
54 23% 60%  
55 17% 37%  
56 10% 20%  
57 7% 10% Last Result
58 3% 4%  
59 0.8% 1.0%  
60 0.1% 0.2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.8%  
40 1.3% 99.3%  
41 4% 98%  
42 9% 94%  
43 16% 86%  
44 18% 69% Median
45 22% 51%  
46 15% 28%  
47 7% 13%  
48 4% 6%  
49 2% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.6% 99.8%  
38 2% 99.3%  
39 5% 97%  
40 10% 93% Last Result
41 13% 83%  
42 21% 69% Median
43 23% 48%  
44 13% 25%  
45 7% 12%  
46 3% 6%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.6% 0.8%  
49 0.1% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations