Opinion Poll by GESOP for CEO, 14 November–5 December 2019
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 25.4% | 23.8–27.2% | 23.3–27.7% | 22.9–28.2% | 22.1–29.0% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.0% | 17.6–20.7% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.8–21.5% | 16.1–22.3% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 18.0% | 16.6–19.6% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.8–20.5% | 15.1–21.2% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 12.0% | 10.8–13.4% | 10.5–13.8% | 10.2–14.1% | 9.6–14.8% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 10.2% | 9.1–11.5% | 8.8–11.9% | 8.5–12.2% | 8.0–12.8% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 7.3% | 6.4–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.9–9.1% | 5.5–9.6% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.5% | 3.2–5.7% | 2.9–6.2% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 38 | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 | 33–44 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 29 | 28–32 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 24–35 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 25 | 23–26 | 22–27 | 21–28 | 19–29 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 16 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 13–20 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 13 | 11–14 | 10–15 | 9–15 | 9–17 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–13 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 5 | 3–6 | 3–7 | 2–7 | 0–7 |
| Vox | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–2 | 0–3 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 35 | 4% | 96% | |
| 36 | 9% | 92% | |
| 37 | 18% | 83% | |
| 38 | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 39 | 16% | 46% | |
| 40 | 16% | 30% | |
| 41 | 6% | 14% | |
| 42 | 4% | 8% | |
| 43 | 3% | 4% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 26 | 3% | 98% | |
| 27 | 4% | 95% | |
| 28 | 6% | 91% | |
| 29 | 35% | 85% | Median |
| 30 | 19% | 50% | |
| 31 | 12% | 31% | |
| 32 | 12% | 19% | |
| 33 | 3% | 7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 21 | 2% | 98% | |
| 22 | 6% | 97% | |
| 23 | 9% | 91% | |
| 24 | 32% | 82% | |
| 25 | 32% | 50% | Median |
| 26 | 12% | 18% | |
| 27 | 3% | 6% | |
| 28 | 2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 26% | 95% | |
| 15 | 16% | 69% | |
| 16 | 22% | 53% | Median |
| 17 | 9% | 31% | |
| 18 | 16% | 21% | |
| 19 | 5% | 5% | |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 2% | 97% | |
| 11 | 16% | 94% | |
| 12 | 23% | 78% | |
| 13 | 18% | 56% | Median |
| 14 | 30% | 37% | |
| 15 | 6% | 7% | |
| 16 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 19% | 99.3% | |
| 9 | 47% | 80% | Median |
| 10 | 10% | 34% | |
| 11 | 20% | 24% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.4% | |
| 2 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 3 | 28% | 97% | |
| 4 | 14% | 69% | Last Result |
| 5 | 41% | 55% | Median |
| 6 | 7% | 13% | |
| 7 | 6% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 2% | 3% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 81 | 100% | 78–84 | 77–85 | 76–85 | 75–87 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 77 | 100% | 74–81 | 74–82 | 73–82 | 72–84 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 76 | 99.9% | 73–79 | 71–79 | 70–80 | 69–82 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 68 | 57% | 65–72 | 64–73 | 63–73 | 62–74 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 57 | 0% | 54–61 | 53–61 | 53–62 | 51–63 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 51 | 0% | 48–54 | 47–55 | 46–56 | 45–58 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 45 | 0% | 42–47 | 41–48 | 41–49 | 39–50 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 45 | 0% | 42–47 | 41–48 | 41–49 | 39–50 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 75 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 76 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 77 | 3% | 96% | |
| 78 | 6% | 94% | |
| 79 | 12% | 88% | |
| 80 | 22% | 76% | Median |
| 81 | 17% | 54% | |
| 82 | 14% | 37% | |
| 83 | 9% | 24% | |
| 84 | 9% | 14% | |
| 85 | 4% | 6% | |
| 86 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 88 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 90 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 74 | 7% | 96% | |
| 75 | 9% | 89% | |
| 76 | 15% | 80% | Median |
| 77 | 16% | 65% | |
| 78 | 14% | 50% | |
| 79 | 15% | 36% | |
| 80 | 7% | 21% | |
| 81 | 7% | 14% | |
| 82 | 6% | 8% | |
| 83 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 70 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 71 | 2% | 97% | |
| 72 | 4% | 95% | |
| 73 | 7% | 91% | |
| 74 | 11% | 84% | |
| 75 | 20% | 73% | |
| 76 | 24% | 53% | Median |
| 77 | 11% | 29% | |
| 78 | 8% | 18% | |
| 79 | 5% | 10% | |
| 80 | 3% | 5% | |
| 81 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 64 | 4% | 97% | |
| 65 | 5% | 94% | |
| 66 | 15% | 88% | Last Result |
| 67 | 16% | 73% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 57% | Majority |
| 69 | 16% | 46% | |
| 70 | 13% | 30% | |
| 71 | 6% | 17% | |
| 72 | 5% | 10% | |
| 73 | 4% | 5% | |
| 74 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 75 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 53 | 6% | 98% | |
| 54 | 7% | 92% | |
| 55 | 8% | 85% | |
| 56 | 15% | 78% | |
| 57 | 14% | 63% | |
| 58 | 15% | 49% | |
| 59 | 15% | 34% | Median |
| 60 | 9% | 19% | |
| 61 | 7% | 10% | |
| 62 | 2% | 4% | |
| 63 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 47 | 2% | 97% | |
| 48 | 7% | 95% | |
| 49 | 9% | 88% | |
| 50 | 16% | 79% | |
| 51 | 23% | 63% | Median |
| 52 | 19% | 40% | |
| 53 | 8% | 22% | |
| 54 | 6% | 14% | |
| 55 | 4% | 8% | |
| 56 | 2% | 3% | |
| 57 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 40 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 41 | 7% | 98% | |
| 42 | 9% | 91% | |
| 43 | 9% | 82% | |
| 44 | 22% | 73% | |
| 45 | 16% | 51% | |
| 46 | 16% | 35% | Median |
| 47 | 9% | 18% | |
| 48 | 6% | 9% | |
| 49 | 2% | 3% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 40 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 41 | 7% | 98% | |
| 42 | 8% | 91% | |
| 43 | 9% | 83% | |
| 44 | 22% | 74% | |
| 45 | 16% | 52% | |
| 46 | 17% | 36% | Median |
| 47 | 10% | 20% | |
| 48 | 6% | 10% | |
| 49 | 2% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): CEO
- Fieldwork period: 14 November–5 December 2019
Calculations
- Sample size: 1050
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.49%