Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 27–29 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 20.7% | 19.4–22.1% | 19.1–22.5% | 18.7–22.9% | 18.1–23.5% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 20.0% | 18.7–21.4% | 18.4–21.8% | 18.0–22.1% | 17.5–22.8% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 19.4% | 18.1–20.8% | 17.8–21.2% | 17.5–21.5% | 16.9–22.1% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.9–9.8% | 7.7–10.1% | 7.5–10.3% | 7.1–10.9% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 8.4% | 7.5–9.4% | 7.3–9.7% | 7.1–9.9% | 6.7–10.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 7.8% | 7.0–8.8% | 6.7–9.0% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.2–9.8% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 7.4% | 6.6–8.3% | 6.4–8.6% | 6.2–8.8% | 5.8–9.3% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.5–7.1% | 5.3–7.3% | 5.1–7.5% | 4.8–8.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 31 | 28–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 29–33 | 29–34 | 29–35 | 27–36 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 26 | 24–27 | 24–28 | 24–28 | 23–30 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 9 | 9–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 8–14 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 8 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 6–12 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 28 | 8% | 97% | |
| 29 | 10% | 89% | |
| 30 | 22% | 80% | |
| 31 | 18% | 57% | Median |
| 32 | 24% | 39% | Last Result |
| 33 | 13% | 16% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 29 | 12% | 98% | |
| 30 | 16% | 86% | |
| 31 | 30% | 71% | Median |
| 32 | 18% | 41% | |
| 33 | 15% | 23% | |
| 34 | 5% | 9% | Last Result |
| 35 | 3% | 4% | |
| 36 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 13% | 98% | |
| 25 | 33% | 85% | |
| 26 | 33% | 52% | Median |
| 27 | 9% | 19% | |
| 28 | 7% | 10% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 11% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 9 | 27% | 89% | |
| 10 | 18% | 62% | Median |
| 11 | 33% | 43% | |
| 12 | 6% | 10% | |
| 13 | 4% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 14% | 98.6% | |
| 10 | 9% | 85% | |
| 11 | 45% | 76% | Median |
| 12 | 26% | 31% | |
| 13 | 2% | 4% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 7% | 100% | |
| 9 | 45% | 93% | Median |
| 10 | 10% | 48% | |
| 11 | 34% | 39% | |
| 12 | 2% | 5% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 8 | 45% | 94% | Median |
| 9 | 23% | 49% | |
| 10 | 12% | 26% | |
| 11 | 9% | 14% | |
| 12 | 5% | 6% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 11% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 50% | 88% | Median |
| 8 | 24% | 38% | |
| 9 | 12% | 13% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 72 | 98% | 69–74 | 69–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 72 | 98% | 70–75 | 69–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 66 | 36% | 64–69 | 63–70 | 62–71 | 61–71 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 62 | 0.2% | 59–65 | 58–65 | 58–66 | 56–67 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 65 | 55 | 0% | 53–58 | 52–59 | 51–60 | 51–61 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox | 57 | 53 | 0% | 51–56 | 50–56 | 49–57 | 48–58 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 57 | 45 | 0% | 43–48 | 43–49 | 42–49 | 41–51 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 41 | 0% | 38–43 | 38–44 | 37–44 | 36–46 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 3% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 95% | |
| 70 | 11% | 88% | Last Result |
| 71 | 15% | 77% | Median |
| 72 | 21% | 62% | |
| 73 | 14% | 41% | |
| 74 | 18% | 27% | |
| 75 | 5% | 9% | |
| 76 | 3% | 4% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 1.1% | 99.6% | |
| 68 | 3% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 96% | |
| 70 | 9% | 91% | |
| 71 | 15% | 82% | |
| 72 | 20% | 67% | Median |
| 73 | 22% | 47% | |
| 74 | 14% | 25% | Last Result |
| 75 | 7% | 11% | |
| 76 | 3% | 4% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 63 | 4% | 97% | |
| 64 | 9% | 93% | |
| 65 | 13% | 84% | |
| 66 | 21% | 71% | |
| 67 | 14% | 50% | Median |
| 68 | 18% | 36% | Majority |
| 69 | 12% | 18% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 58 | 4% | 98% | |
| 59 | 5% | 95% | |
| 60 | 10% | 90% | |
| 61 | 15% | 80% | |
| 62 | 17% | 65% | Median |
| 63 | 25% | 48% | |
| 64 | 13% | 23% | |
| 65 | 7% | 11% | |
| 66 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 67 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 2% | 97% | |
| 53 | 6% | 95% | |
| 54 | 21% | 88% | |
| 55 | 20% | 67% | Median |
| 56 | 15% | 48% | |
| 57 | 14% | 33% | |
| 58 | 10% | 18% | |
| 59 | 5% | 8% | |
| 60 | 2% | 3% | |
| 61 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 50 | 7% | 97% | |
| 51 | 10% | 90% | |
| 52 | 22% | 80% | Median |
| 53 | 26% | 58% | |
| 54 | 13% | 31% | |
| 55 | 8% | 18% | |
| 56 | 7% | 11% | |
| 57 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 58 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Partit Popular – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 42 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 43 | 7% | 95% | |
| 44 | 13% | 89% | |
| 45 | 30% | 75% | Median |
| 46 | 22% | 46% | |
| 47 | 10% | 24% | |
| 48 | 7% | 13% | |
| 49 | 5% | 7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 4% | 98.5% | |
| 38 | 7% | 95% | |
| 39 | 14% | 88% | |
| 40 | 15% | 74% | Last Result |
| 41 | 19% | 60% | Median |
| 42 | 17% | 41% | |
| 43 | 16% | 24% | |
| 44 | 6% | 7% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: electoPanel
- Commissioner(s): electomania.es
- Fieldwork period: 27–29 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.04%