Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 27–31 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 22.0% | 20.7–23.5% | 20.3–23.9% | 20.0–24.2% | 19.3–25.0% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.0% | 17.7–20.4% | 17.4–20.8% | 17.1–21.1% | 16.5–21.8% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 16.9% | 15.7–18.3% | 15.4–18.6% | 15.1–19.0% | 14.5–19.6% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 12.8% | 11.8–14.0% | 11.4–14.4% | 11.2–14.7% | 10.7–15.3% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.5–10.5% | 8.2–10.8% | 8.0–11.0% | 7.6–11.6% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.8–7.5% | 5.6–7.8% | 5.4–8.0% | 5.1–8.5% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.1–7.2% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.1–5.6% | 4.0–5.9% | 3.8–6.1% | 3.5–6.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 33 | 31–35 | 30–36 | 29–36 | 28–38 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 28–32 | 27–32 | 26–33 | 26–35 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 23 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 17 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 11 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–14 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 3–9 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 5 | 4–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–8 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 29 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 5% | 95% | |
| 31 | 16% | 90% | |
| 32 | 11% | 74% | Last Result |
| 33 | 21% | 62% | Median |
| 34 | 19% | 42% | |
| 35 | 16% | 22% | |
| 36 | 4% | 6% | |
| 37 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 26 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 4% | 95% | |
| 28 | 11% | 91% | |
| 29 | 13% | 80% | |
| 30 | 15% | 67% | |
| 31 | 35% | 52% | Median |
| 32 | 12% | 17% | |
| 33 | 3% | 4% | |
| 34 | 0.9% | 1.5% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 20 | 8% | 97% | |
| 21 | 7% | 89% | |
| 22 | 10% | 82% | |
| 23 | 32% | 72% | Median |
| 24 | 26% | 40% | |
| 25 | 13% | 15% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 7% | 95% | |
| 16 | 24% | 88% | |
| 17 | 15% | 64% | Median |
| 18 | 31% | 49% | |
| 19 | 16% | 17% | |
| 20 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 1.0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 6% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 10% | 93% | |
| 11 | 50% | 83% | Median |
| 12 | 13% | 33% | |
| 13 | 15% | 21% | |
| 14 | 5% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 51% | 95% | Median |
| 9 | 36% | 44% | |
| 10 | 4% | 8% | |
| 11 | 4% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 5 | 11% | 98.6% | |
| 6 | 24% | 87% | |
| 7 | 53% | 63% | Median |
| 8 | 6% | 10% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 91% | Last Result |
| 5 | 44% | 86% | Median |
| 6 | 22% | 42% | |
| 7 | 19% | 20% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 74 | 100% | 72–77 | 71–78 | 70–78 | 69–80 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 71 | 98% | 69–74 | 68–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 67 | 47% | 64–70 | 64–71 | 63–71 | 62–73 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 63 | 2% | 60–65 | 60–66 | 59–67 | 58–69 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 57 | 0% | 54–60 | 54–60 | 53–61 | 51–62 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular | 57 | 52 | 0% | 49–55 | 49–56 | 48–56 | 46–57 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 45 | 0% | 43–48 | 42–49 | 41–49 | 40–50 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 44 | 0% | 42–47 | 41–48 | 40–48 | 39–50 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.2% | 100% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 70 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 71 | 6% | 96% | |
| 72 | 7% | 91% | |
| 73 | 16% | 83% | |
| 74 | 18% | 67% | Last Result |
| 75 | 22% | 49% | Median |
| 76 | 13% | 27% | |
| 77 | 7% | 14% | |
| 78 | 5% | 7% | |
| 79 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 81 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 7% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 7% | 91% | |
| 70 | 15% | 84% | Last Result |
| 71 | 19% | 68% | |
| 72 | 15% | 49% | Median |
| 73 | 18% | 35% | |
| 74 | 10% | 17% | |
| 75 | 4% | 7% | |
| 76 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 64 | 7% | 96% | |
| 65 | 12% | 89% | |
| 66 | 9% | 77% | |
| 67 | 21% | 67% | Median |
| 68 | 20% | 47% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 26% | |
| 70 | 11% | 17% | |
| 71 | 4% | 6% | |
| 72 | 2% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 9% | 96% | |
| 61 | 9% | 87% | |
| 62 | 20% | 78% | |
| 63 | 14% | 58% | |
| 64 | 21% | 44% | Median |
| 65 | 14% | 24% | |
| 66 | 6% | 10% | Last Result |
| 67 | 2% | 4% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 53 | 3% | 98% | |
| 54 | 8% | 95% | |
| 55 | 13% | 87% | |
| 56 | 19% | 74% | Median |
| 57 | 16% | 55% | |
| 58 | 17% | 39% | |
| 59 | 11% | 22% | |
| 60 | 7% | 11% | |
| 61 | 2% | 4% | |
| 62 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 99.4% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98% | |
| 49 | 7% | 96% | |
| 50 | 9% | 89% | |
| 51 | 17% | 80% | |
| 52 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 53 | 21% | 44% | |
| 54 | 13% | 24% | |
| 55 | 6% | 11% | |
| 56 | 4% | 6% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 41 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 42 | 4% | 97% | |
| 43 | 9% | 94% | |
| 44 | 13% | 85% | |
| 45 | 24% | 71% | Median |
| 46 | 15% | 47% | |
| 47 | 15% | 32% | |
| 48 | 9% | 17% | |
| 49 | 6% | 8% | |
| 50 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 3% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 41 | 4% | 96% | |
| 42 | 11% | 93% | |
| 43 | 16% | 82% | |
| 44 | 23% | 66% | Median |
| 45 | 15% | 42% | |
| 46 | 13% | 27% | |
| 47 | 7% | 14% | |
| 48 | 5% | 7% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): El Periódico
- Fieldwork period: 27–31 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1435
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.69%