Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 27–31 January 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 21.0% | 19.2–23.0% | 18.7–23.6% | 18.2–24.1% | 17.4–25.1% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.5% | 17.7–21.5% | 17.2–22.0% | 16.8–22.5% | 16.0–23.5% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 17.3% | 15.7–19.3% | 15.2–19.8% | 14.8–20.3% | 14.0–21.2% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 10.3% | 9.0–11.9% | 8.6–12.3% | 8.3–12.7% | 7.7–13.5% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 8.9% | 7.7–10.4% | 7.4–10.9% | 7.1–11.2% | 6.5–12.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.1–9.7% | 6.8–10.1% | 6.5–10.5% | 6.0–11.2% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.2–7.5% | 4.9–7.9% | 4.7–8.2% | 4.3–8.9% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.0–7.2% | 4.7–7.6% | 4.5–7.9% | 4.0–8.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 31 | 29–34 | 28–35 | 28–36 | 26–37 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 27–34 | 26–35 | 26–35 | 25–37 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 24 | 20–26 | 20–26 | 19–27 | 17–28 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 13 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 9–18 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 12 | 10–14 | 9–15 | 9–15 | 8–16 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 10 | 8–11 | 7–12 | 7–13 | 6–14 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 4–12 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 | 4–11 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 8% | 98.6% | |
| 29 | 14% | 90% | |
| 30 | 15% | 76% | |
| 31 | 19% | 61% | Median |
| 32 | 11% | 42% | Last Result |
| 33 | 10% | 31% | |
| 34 | 12% | 21% | |
| 35 | 6% | 9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 1.2% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 7% | 98.5% | |
| 27 | 3% | 92% | |
| 28 | 8% | 88% | |
| 29 | 10% | 80% | |
| 30 | 10% | 70% | |
| 31 | 26% | 61% | Median |
| 32 | 21% | 35% | |
| 33 | 4% | 14% | |
| 34 | 5% | 10% | Last Result |
| 35 | 3% | 5% | |
| 36 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 1.2% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 3% | 98% | |
| 20 | 7% | 95% | |
| 21 | 9% | 88% | |
| 22 | 9% | 79% | |
| 23 | 18% | 69% | |
| 24 | 27% | 51% | Median |
| 25 | 14% | 24% | |
| 26 | 8% | 10% | |
| 27 | 2% | 3% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 98.9% | |
| 11 | 2% | 98% | |
| 12 | 21% | 95% | |
| 13 | 40% | 74% | Median |
| 14 | 23% | 34% | |
| 15 | 5% | 11% | |
| 16 | 4% | 6% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 6% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 20% | 93% | |
| 11 | 12% | 73% | |
| 12 | 33% | 61% | Median |
| 13 | 15% | 28% | |
| 14 | 7% | 13% | |
| 15 | 5% | 5% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.4% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 4% | 98% | |
| 8 | 22% | 94% | Last Result |
| 9 | 20% | 72% | |
| 10 | 21% | 52% | Median |
| 11 | 22% | 31% | |
| 12 | 5% | 9% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 7% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 6% | 92% | |
| 7 | 41% | 86% | Median |
| 8 | 12% | 46% | |
| 9 | 24% | 34% | |
| 10 | 8% | 10% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 5 | 3% | 97% | |
| 6 | 5% | 94% | |
| 7 | 24% | 89% | |
| 8 | 47% | 65% | Median |
| 9 | 14% | 18% | |
| 10 | 3% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 71 | 95% | 68–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 65–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 69 | 75% | 66–73 | 65–74 | 64–75 | 63–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 64 | 10% | 61–67 | 60–68 | 59–69 | 57–71 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 62 | 2% | 59–66 | 58–66 | 57–67 | 55–69 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 65 | 58 | 0% | 54–61 | 53–62 | 52–63 | 51–64 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 56 | 0% | 52–59 | 51–60 | 51–61 | 49–63 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 48 | 0% | 45–51 | 44–52 | 43–53 | 42–55 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 41 | 0% | 38–44 | 37–45 | 36–46 | 35–48 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 67 | 3% | 98% | |
| 68 | 6% | 95% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 89% | |
| 70 | 15% | 77% | |
| 71 | 15% | 62% | |
| 72 | 13% | 47% | Median |
| 73 | 10% | 35% | |
| 74 | 11% | 24% | Last Result |
| 75 | 7% | 14% | |
| 76 | 4% | 6% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 64 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 65 | 3% | 97% | |
| 66 | 6% | 95% | |
| 67 | 13% | 88% | |
| 68 | 15% | 75% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 60% | |
| 70 | 11% | 48% | Last Result, Median |
| 71 | 12% | 37% | |
| 72 | 7% | 25% | |
| 73 | 9% | 18% | |
| 74 | 5% | 9% | |
| 75 | 2% | 4% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.8% | 99.3% | |
| 59 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 60 | 4% | 96% | |
| 61 | 8% | 92% | |
| 62 | 12% | 85% | |
| 63 | 11% | 73% | |
| 64 | 21% | 61% | |
| 65 | 11% | 40% | Median |
| 66 | 11% | 29% | |
| 67 | 8% | 18% | |
| 68 | 5% | 10% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 5% | |
| 70 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 58 | 5% | 96% | |
| 59 | 12% | 92% | |
| 60 | 13% | 80% | |
| 61 | 14% | 67% | |
| 62 | 13% | 53% | Median |
| 63 | 13% | 40% | |
| 64 | 9% | 28% | |
| 65 | 8% | 19% | |
| 66 | 6% | 10% | Last Result |
| 67 | 3% | 4% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 70 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 52 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 53 | 4% | 97% | |
| 54 | 6% | 93% | |
| 55 | 9% | 87% | |
| 56 | 11% | 78% | |
| 57 | 16% | 67% | |
| 58 | 12% | 52% | |
| 59 | 12% | 40% | Median |
| 60 | 13% | 28% | |
| 61 | 8% | 15% | |
| 62 | 5% | 8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 51 | 4% | 98% | |
| 52 | 7% | 94% | |
| 53 | 10% | 87% | |
| 54 | 9% | 77% | |
| 55 | 10% | 68% | |
| 56 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 57 | 14% | 44% | Last Result |
| 58 | 16% | 30% | |
| 59 | 7% | 13% | |
| 60 | 3% | 7% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 43 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 44 | 6% | 97% | |
| 45 | 6% | 91% | |
| 46 | 12% | 85% | |
| 47 | 12% | 73% | |
| 48 | 18% | 61% | |
| 49 | 13% | 43% | Median |
| 50 | 13% | 30% | |
| 51 | 9% | 17% | |
| 52 | 4% | 8% | |
| 53 | 2% | 4% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 37 | 5% | 97% | |
| 38 | 11% | 92% | |
| 39 | 12% | 82% | |
| 40 | 13% | 70% | Last Result |
| 41 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 42 | 11% | 40% | |
| 43 | 13% | 29% | |
| 44 | 8% | 15% | |
| 45 | 4% | 7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 3% | |
| 47 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 27–31 January 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 738
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.84%