Opinion Poll by GAD3 for La Vanguardia, 3–6 February 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 24.9% | 22.7–27.4% | 22.1–28.0% | 21.5–28.7% | 20.5–29.8% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 20.3% | 18.3–22.6% | 17.7–23.3% | 17.2–23.8% | 16.3–25.0% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.8% | 17.8–22.1% | 17.2–22.7% | 16.7–23.3% | 15.8–24.4% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.5–10.5% | 7.1–11.0% | 6.8–11.5% | 6.2–12.3% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 8.5% | 7.1–10.2% | 6.8–10.7% | 6.4–11.1% | 5.9–11.9% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 6.7% | 5.5–8.3% | 5.2–8.7% | 4.9–9.1% | 4.4–9.9% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.1–6.5% | 3.8–6.9% | 3.6–7.3% | 3.2–8.0% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.2–6.1% | 3.0–6.4% | 2.6–7.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 37 | 33–41 | 32–42 | 32–43 | 30–44 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 26 | 24–30 | 24–31 | 23–32 | 21–33 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 27–34 | 26–36 | 25–37 | 24–38 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 10 | 8–13 | 7–14 | 7–14 | 6–16 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 13 | 8–14 | 7–14 | 6–14 | 6–15 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 9 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 5–12 | 5–13 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 6 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 0–11 |
| Vox | 0 | 4 | 3–7 | 2–7 | 0–7 | 0–9 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 32 | 3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 33 | 6% | 95% | |
| 34 | 9% | 89% | |
| 35 | 9% | 80% | |
| 36 | 14% | 71% | |
| 37 | 18% | 57% | Median |
| 38 | 13% | 39% | |
| 39 | 9% | 26% | |
| 40 | 6% | 16% | |
| 41 | 6% | 11% | |
| 42 | 3% | 5% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 24 | 8% | 96% | |
| 25 | 17% | 89% | |
| 26 | 25% | 71% | Median |
| 27 | 11% | 47% | |
| 28 | 10% | 35% | |
| 29 | 10% | 25% | |
| 30 | 6% | 15% | |
| 31 | 6% | 9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 34 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 4% | 97% | |
| 27 | 4% | 93% | |
| 28 | 6% | 89% | |
| 29 | 11% | 84% | |
| 30 | 13% | 73% | |
| 31 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 32 | 19% | 38% | |
| 33 | 5% | 19% | |
| 34 | 4% | 14% | Last Result |
| 35 | 3% | 10% | |
| 36 | 4% | 7% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 5% | 98% | |
| 8 | 22% | 93% | Last Result |
| 9 | 19% | 71% | |
| 10 | 14% | 52% | Median |
| 11 | 20% | 38% | |
| 12 | 7% | 18% | |
| 13 | 6% | 11% | |
| 14 | 4% | 6% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 16 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 3% | 97% | |
| 8 | 10% | 94% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 85% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 84% | |
| 11 | 1.3% | 83% | |
| 12 | 26% | 82% | |
| 13 | 46% | 56% | Median |
| 14 | 9% | 10% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 5 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 5% | 96% | |
| 7 | 31% | 91% | |
| 8 | 8% | 60% | |
| 9 | 30% | 52% | Median |
| 10 | 14% | 22% | |
| 11 | 4% | 8% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 99.3% | |
| 2 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 3 | 6% | 98% | |
| 4 | 22% | 92% | Last Result |
| 5 | 10% | 69% | |
| 6 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 7 | 24% | 47% | |
| 8 | 19% | 23% | |
| 9 | 3% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 6% | 96% | |
| 3 | 31% | 90% | |
| 4 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 5 | 27% | 47% | |
| 6 | 9% | 20% | |
| 7 | 9% | 11% | |
| 8 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 78 | 99.9% | 74–82 | 72–83 | 71–84 | 69–86 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 74 | 96% | 70–78 | 68–79 | 67–80 | 66–82 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 74 | 97% | 70–78 | 68–79 | 67–80 | 65–83 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 68 | 51% | 64–72 | 63–73 | 62–74 | 60–76 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 65 | 57 | 0.1% | 53–61 | 52–62 | 51–63 | 49–66 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 51 | 0% | 47–56 | 46–57 | 45–58 | 43–60 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 47 | 0% | 43–51 | 42–52 | 41–53 | 39–55 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 48 | 0% | 43–51 | 41–52 | 40–53 | 38–55 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 71 | 1.5% | 98.6% | |
| 72 | 4% | 97% | |
| 73 | 3% | 94% | |
| 74 | 7% | 91% | Last Result |
| 75 | 9% | 84% | |
| 76 | 9% | 75% | |
| 77 | 15% | 67% | |
| 78 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 79 | 12% | 40% | |
| 80 | 8% | 28% | |
| 81 | 10% | 20% | |
| 82 | 5% | 10% | |
| 83 | 3% | 6% | |
| 84 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 85 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 86 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 87 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 88 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 67 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 68 | 2% | 96% | Majority |
| 69 | 4% | 94% | |
| 70 | 9% | 90% | Last Result |
| 71 | 7% | 81% | |
| 72 | 8% | 75% | |
| 73 | 11% | 66% | |
| 74 | 15% | 55% | Median |
| 75 | 10% | 40% | |
| 76 | 11% | 30% | |
| 77 | 7% | 19% | |
| 78 | 6% | 12% | |
| 79 | 3% | 6% | |
| 80 | 2% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 95% | |
| 70 | 5% | 90% | |
| 71 | 11% | 85% | |
| 72 | 12% | 74% | |
| 73 | 10% | 62% | Median |
| 74 | 13% | 52% | |
| 75 | 11% | 39% | |
| 76 | 8% | 28% | |
| 77 | 8% | 21% | |
| 78 | 5% | 13% | |
| 79 | 4% | 8% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 60 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 99.0% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98% | |
| 63 | 5% | 96% | |
| 64 | 8% | 91% | |
| 65 | 6% | 83% | |
| 66 | 13% | 77% | Last Result |
| 67 | 13% | 64% | |
| 68 | 8% | 51% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 15% | 43% | |
| 70 | 9% | 29% | |
| 71 | 7% | 20% | |
| 72 | 4% | 12% | |
| 73 | 5% | 8% | |
| 74 | 2% | 3% | |
| 75 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 50 | 0.9% | 98.8% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98% | |
| 52 | 3% | 96% | |
| 53 | 7% | 92% | |
| 54 | 8% | 86% | |
| 55 | 8% | 78% | |
| 56 | 15% | 70% | |
| 57 | 12% | 55% | |
| 58 | 9% | 43% | Median |
| 59 | 9% | 34% | |
| 60 | 10% | 24% | |
| 61 | 6% | 15% | |
| 62 | 4% | 9% | |
| 63 | 3% | 5% | |
| 64 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98% | |
| 46 | 2% | 96% | |
| 47 | 5% | 94% | |
| 48 | 7% | 89% | |
| 49 | 8% | 82% | |
| 50 | 13% | 74% | |
| 51 | 12% | 61% | |
| 52 | 12% | 49% | Median |
| 53 | 12% | 37% | |
| 54 | 10% | 25% | |
| 55 | 4% | 15% | |
| 56 | 4% | 11% | |
| 57 | 3% | 7% | Last Result |
| 58 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 41 | 2% | 98% | |
| 42 | 3% | 96% | |
| 43 | 8% | 93% | |
| 44 | 8% | 85% | |
| 45 | 12% | 77% | |
| 46 | 12% | 64% | |
| 47 | 10% | 52% | Median |
| 48 | 12% | 42% | |
| 49 | 12% | 31% | |
| 50 | 7% | 19% | |
| 51 | 5% | 11% | |
| 52 | 3% | 6% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 40 | 2% | 98% | |
| 41 | 3% | 96% | |
| 42 | 3% | 93% | |
| 43 | 4% | 90% | |
| 44 | 5% | 86% | |
| 45 | 9% | 81% | |
| 46 | 12% | 72% | |
| 47 | 10% | 60% | |
| 48 | 14% | 50% | Median |
| 49 | 11% | 36% | |
| 50 | 12% | 25% | |
| 51 | 5% | 14% | |
| 52 | 5% | 9% | |
| 53 | 2% | 4% | |
| 54 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): La Vanguardia
- Fieldwork period: 3–6 February 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 566
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.35%