Opinion Poll by Key Data for Público, 6 February 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 23.7% 21.2–26.6% 20.4–27.4% 19.8–28.1% 18.6–29.5%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 19.0% 16.7–21.7% 16.0–22.5% 15.5–23.1% 14.4–24.5%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 18.0% 15.8–20.7% 15.1–21.4% 14.6–22.1% 13.6–23.4%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 12.1% 10.2–14.4% 9.7–15.1% 9.3–15.7% 8.4–16.8%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 9.1% 7.5–11.2% 7.1–11.8% 6.7–12.3% 6.0–13.4%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 6.9% 5.5–8.8% 5.2–9.3% 4.8–9.8% 4.2–10.8%
Partit Popular 4.2% 4.7% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.8% 3.0–7.2% 2.6–8.1%
Vox 0.0% 4.0% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–5.9% 2.5–6.3% 2.0–7.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 35 31–40 30–41 29–42 27–45
Junts per Catalunya 34 30 26–34 25–36 24–37 23–38
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 24 21–27 19–29 18–30 17–32
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 16 13–19 13–20 12–21 11–23
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 11 8–14 8–15 7–16 6–17
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 9 7–11 7–12 6–14 4–15
Partit Popular 4 5 3–7 3–8 2–9 0–10
Vox 0 3 2–7 0–7 0–7 0–9

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.2% 100%  
27 0.3% 99.8%  
28 1.0% 99.4%  
29 2% 98%  
30 2% 96%  
31 4% 94%  
32 8% 90% Last Result
33 10% 82%  
34 10% 72%  
35 13% 62% Median
36 10% 49%  
37 11% 39%  
38 8% 28%  
39 8% 20%  
40 5% 12%  
41 3% 7%  
42 3% 5%  
43 0.7% 2%  
44 0.7% 1.3%  
45 0.4% 0.6%  
46 0.1% 0.2%  
47 0.1% 0.1%  
48 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 2% 99.6%  
24 2% 98%  
25 5% 96%  
26 8% 91%  
27 8% 83%  
28 5% 76%  
29 17% 71%  
30 10% 54% Median
31 15% 44%  
32 9% 29%  
33 7% 20%  
34 5% 13% Last Result
35 3% 8%  
36 2% 5%  
37 2% 3%  
38 0.6% 1.0%  
39 0.2% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.1% 99.7% Last Result
18 2% 98.6%  
19 2% 96%  
20 4% 94%  
21 6% 91%  
22 5% 85%  
23 15% 79%  
24 17% 64% Median
25 19% 47%  
26 14% 28%  
27 6% 14%  
28 3% 8%  
29 2% 5%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.8% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.8%  
33 0.3% 0.4%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.2% 99.8%  
11 0.2% 99.6%  
12 4% 99.4%  
13 11% 96%  
14 20% 84%  
15 9% 64%  
16 11% 55% Median
17 8% 45%  
18 20% 37%  
19 11% 17%  
20 3% 6%  
21 1.2% 3%  
22 0.9% 2%  
23 0.6% 0.8%  
24 0.1% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 0.7% 99.6%  
7 2% 98.9%  
8 13% 96% Last Result
9 12% 84%  
10 11% 72%  
11 25% 61% Median
12 9% 36%  
13 13% 27%  
14 9% 14%  
15 2% 5%  
16 2% 3%  
17 1.0% 1.2%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 1.1% 99.9% Last Result
5 0.5% 98.8%  
6 1.4% 98%  
7 8% 97%  
8 31% 89%  
9 24% 58% Median
10 8% 34%  
11 18% 25%  
12 3% 7%  
13 2% 5%  
14 1.0% 3%  
15 1.3% 2%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100%  
1 0% 98.5%  
2 2% 98.5%  
3 22% 96%  
4 10% 74% Last Result
5 17% 64% Median
6 14% 47%  
7 26% 32%  
8 2% 7%  
9 3% 5%  
10 1.1% 1.5%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 9% 100% Last Result
1 0% 91%  
2 11% 91%  
3 31% 80% Median
4 10% 49%  
5 18% 39%  
6 9% 21%  
7 9% 11%  
8 0.6% 2%  
9 1.0% 1.2%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 77 98.9% 72–81 70–83 69–84 67–87
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 75 96% 70–79 68–81 67–82 65–85
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 71 79% 66–76 64–77 63–78 61–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 66 30% 61–70 59–72 58–73 56–76
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 56 0.2% 52–61 50–63 49–65 47–67
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 49 0% 45–54 43–56 42–57 39–59
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 46 0% 42–51 41–53 39–54 37–56
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 45 0% 41–50 40–51 38–52 36–55

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.6% 99.6%  
68 1.2% 98.9% Majority
69 2% 98%  
70 2% 96%  
71 4% 94%  
72 4% 90%  
73 6% 86%  
74 6% 79% Last Result
75 11% 73%  
76 10% 62% Median
77 10% 52%  
78 16% 42%  
79 8% 26%  
80 5% 18%  
81 5% 14%  
82 4% 9%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.2% 3%  
85 0.7% 2%  
86 0.4% 1.0%  
87 0.4% 0.6%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.7%  
66 1.0% 99.2%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 96% Majority
69 4% 94%  
70 5% 90% Last Result
71 5% 85%  
72 9% 81%  
73 9% 72%  
74 10% 63% Median
75 10% 53%  
76 11% 43%  
77 8% 32%  
78 9% 23%  
79 6% 15%  
80 3% 9%  
81 2% 6%  
82 2% 4%  
83 1.2% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.9%  
85 0.3% 0.5%  
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.7% 99.6%  
62 0.8% 98.9%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 97%  
65 3% 94%  
66 5% 91%  
67 8% 87%  
68 9% 79% Majority
69 10% 70%  
70 8% 60% Median
71 8% 52%  
72 9% 43%  
73 8% 34%  
74 10% 27%  
75 7% 17%  
76 3% 10%  
77 3% 7%  
78 2% 4%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.7% 1.2%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.4% 99.6%  
57 1.2% 99.1%  
58 2% 98%  
59 3% 96%  
60 3% 93%  
61 5% 90%  
62 7% 85%  
63 7% 79%  
64 10% 71%  
65 11% 62% Median
66 8% 51% Last Result
67 13% 42%  
68 10% 30% Majority
69 5% 19%  
70 6% 15%  
71 4% 9%  
72 2% 5%  
73 1.3% 3%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.4% 1.0%  
76 0.3% 0.6%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 0.4% 99.5%  
48 0.9% 99.1%  
49 2% 98%  
50 2% 97%  
51 3% 94%  
52 5% 91%  
53 8% 86%  
54 8% 79%  
55 11% 71%  
56 14% 60% Median
57 9% 47%  
58 9% 37%  
59 5% 29%  
60 9% 23%  
61 5% 14%  
62 3% 9%  
63 2% 6%  
64 1.2% 4%  
65 2% 3% Last Result
66 0.5% 1.0%  
67 0.3% 0.5%  
68 0.1% 0.2% Majority
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.3% 99.7%  
40 0.4% 99.5%  
41 0.7% 99.1%  
42 1.0% 98%  
43 2% 97%  
44 4% 95%  
45 4% 91%  
46 7% 87%  
47 11% 80%  
48 11% 69% Median
49 14% 59%  
50 9% 44%  
51 9% 36%  
52 8% 27%  
53 6% 19%  
54 4% 13%  
55 4% 9%  
56 3% 6%  
57 1.3% 3% Last Result
58 0.9% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.8%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 0.4% 99.8%  
38 0.7% 99.4%  
39 1.4% 98.7%  
40 2% 97% Last Result
41 3% 95%  
42 6% 93%  
43 8% 87%  
44 11% 79%  
45 9% 67%  
46 8% 58% Median
47 9% 50%  
48 8% 41%  
49 11% 33%  
50 7% 22%  
51 6% 15%  
52 3% 9%  
53 2% 6%  
54 1.3% 3%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.5% 99.7%  
37 0.5% 99.3%  
38 2% 98.8%  
39 2% 97%  
40 3% 95%  
41 4% 92%  
42 6% 88%  
43 8% 82%  
44 14% 74%  
45 13% 60% Median
46 10% 46%  
47 8% 36%  
48 7% 28%  
49 6% 21%  
50 6% 14%  
51 4% 8%  
52 3% 5%  
53 1.0% 2%  
54 0.5% 1.1%  
55 0.3% 0.6%  
56 0.2% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations