Opinion Poll by GESOP for CEO, 10 February–9 March 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 23.0% 21.6–24.5% 21.2–24.9% 20.9–25.3% 20.2–26.0%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 18.6% 17.3–20.0% 16.9–20.4% 16.6–20.7% 16.0–21.4%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 17.4% 16.2–18.8% 15.8–19.2% 15.5–19.5% 15.0–20.2%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 12.8% 11.7–14.0% 11.4–14.3% 11.1–14.6% 10.6–15.2%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 10.9% 9.9–12.1% 9.6–12.4% 9.4–12.7% 8.9–13.2%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 7.1% 6.3–8.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.8–8.6% 5.5–9.0%
Partit Popular 4.2% 5.5% 4.8–6.4% 4.6–6.6% 4.4–6.8% 4.1–7.3%
Vox 0.0% 3.0% 2.5–3.7% 2.3–3.9% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 35 32–37 31–37 31–38 30–39
Junts per Catalunya 34 29 27–31 26–32 26–32 24–33
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 24 22–25 21–26 21–26 19–27
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 18 15–19 14–19 14–19 14–20
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 14 12–15 11–16 11–16 11–17
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 9 8–11 8–11 8–11 7–12
Partit Popular 4 7 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–9
Vox 0 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.2% 100%  
30 1.3% 99.8%  
31 4% 98%  
32 8% 94% Last Result
33 16% 86%  
34 19% 70%  
35 24% 51% Median
36 13% 27%  
37 10% 14%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.7% 0.9%  
40 0.1% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.5% 100%  
25 2% 99.5%  
26 5% 98%  
27 9% 93%  
28 14% 84%  
29 32% 71% Median
30 14% 39%  
31 17% 25%  
32 7% 8%  
33 1.0% 1.3%  
34 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.7%  
20 2% 99.2%  
21 7% 98%  
22 16% 91%  
23 19% 75%  
24 31% 56% Median
25 20% 25%  
26 5% 5%  
27 0.4% 0.7%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 8% 99.6%  
15 5% 92%  
16 13% 87%  
17 24% 74%  
18 37% 51% Median
19 12% 13%  
20 1.2% 1.4%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.2% 99.9%  
11 7% 99.7%  
12 14% 93%  
13 18% 78%  
14 41% 60% Median
15 12% 19%  
16 5% 7%  
17 2% 2%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 1.0% 100%  
8 28% 99.0%  
9 50% 72% Median
10 8% 22%  
11 13% 13%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 1.1% 99.6% Last Result
5 18% 98%  
6 22% 80%  
7 51% 58% Median
8 5% 7%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 41% 100% Last Result
1 0% 59%  
2 27% 59% Median
3 30% 32%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 77 100% 75–80 74–81 73–82 72–83
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 73 99.5% 70–75 70–76 69–77 68–78
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 72 98% 68–74 68–75 68–76 66–78
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 64 3% 61–66 60–67 60–68 59–69
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 61 0.1% 58–63 57–64 57–65 55–66
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 48 0% 45–51 45–51 44–52 43–53
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 49 0% 45–51 45–52 44–52 43–54
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 48 0% 44–49 43–50 43–51 42–52

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.5% 99.7%  
73 3% 99.3%  
74 6% 96% Last Result
75 11% 91%  
76 16% 79%  
77 18% 63%  
78 21% 45% Median
79 9% 24%  
80 6% 15%  
81 4% 9%  
82 3% 4%  
83 0.5% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.9%  
68 1.2% 99.5% Majority
69 3% 98%  
70 10% 96% Last Result
71 14% 86%  
72 18% 72%  
73 21% 54% Median
74 13% 33%  
75 10% 20%  
76 6% 10%  
77 3% 4%  
78 1.0% 1.3%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.5% 99.9%  
67 2% 99.4%  
68 8% 98% Majority
69 9% 90%  
70 15% 81%  
71 16% 66%  
72 14% 50%  
73 13% 36% Median
74 16% 23%  
75 4% 7%  
76 2% 3%  
77 0.7% 1.3%  
78 0.6% 0.6%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 2% 99.5%  
60 4% 98%  
61 6% 93%  
62 16% 87%  
63 18% 71%  
64 20% 52% Median
65 14% 33%  
66 8% 18% Last Result
67 7% 10%  
68 2% 3% Majority
69 1.0% 1.3%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.8% 99.8%  
56 1.0% 99.0%  
57 5% 98%  
58 9% 93%  
59 12% 84%  
60 16% 73%  
61 16% 57%  
62 23% 41%  
63 11% 18% Median
64 4% 7%  
65 3% 3% Last Result
66 0.5% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.8% 99.9%  
44 4% 99.1%  
45 9% 95%  
46 12% 86%  
47 12% 75%  
48 16% 63%  
49 25% 47% Median
50 9% 22%  
51 9% 13%  
52 3% 4%  
53 1.0% 1.4%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 99.9%  
43 0.6% 99.8%  
44 2% 99.3%  
45 7% 97%  
46 5% 90%  
47 9% 85%  
48 23% 76%  
49 16% 53%  
50 14% 37%  
51 18% 23% Median
52 3% 5%  
53 1.3% 2%  
54 0.7% 0.8%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 0.8% 99.6%  
43 4% 98.7%  
44 5% 94%  
45 11% 89%  
46 14% 78%  
47 12% 64%  
48 27% 52%  
49 15% 25% Median
50 6% 10%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.6% 0.8%  
53 0.1% 0.2%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations