Opinion Poll by GESOP for CEO, 10 February–9 March 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 23.0% | 21.6–24.5% | 21.2–24.9% | 20.9–25.3% | 20.2–26.0% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 18.6% | 17.3–20.0% | 16.9–20.4% | 16.6–20.7% | 16.0–21.4% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 17.4% | 16.2–18.8% | 15.8–19.2% | 15.5–19.5% | 15.0–20.2% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 12.8% | 11.7–14.0% | 11.4–14.3% | 11.1–14.6% | 10.6–15.2% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 10.9% | 9.9–12.1% | 9.6–12.4% | 9.4–12.7% | 8.9–13.2% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 7.1% | 6.3–8.0% | 6.0–8.3% | 5.8–8.6% | 5.5–9.0% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.1–7.3% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.3–3.9% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.0–4.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 35 | 32–37 | 31–37 | 31–38 | 30–39 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 29 | 27–31 | 26–32 | 26–32 | 24–33 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 24 | 22–25 | 21–26 | 21–26 | 19–27 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 18 | 15–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 14 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 11–17 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Vox | 0 | 2 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 4% | 98% | |
| 32 | 8% | 94% | Last Result |
| 33 | 16% | 86% | |
| 34 | 19% | 70% | |
| 35 | 24% | 51% | Median |
| 36 | 13% | 27% | |
| 37 | 10% | 14% | |
| 38 | 3% | 4% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 26 | 5% | 98% | |
| 27 | 9% | 93% | |
| 28 | 14% | 84% | |
| 29 | 32% | 71% | Median |
| 30 | 14% | 39% | |
| 31 | 17% | 25% | |
| 32 | 7% | 8% | |
| 33 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 21 | 7% | 98% | |
| 22 | 16% | 91% | |
| 23 | 19% | 75% | |
| 24 | 31% | 56% | Median |
| 25 | 20% | 25% | |
| 26 | 5% | 5% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 14 | 8% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 5% | 92% | |
| 16 | 13% | 87% | |
| 17 | 24% | 74% | |
| 18 | 37% | 51% | Median |
| 19 | 12% | 13% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 12 | 14% | 93% | |
| 13 | 18% | 78% | |
| 14 | 41% | 60% | Median |
| 15 | 12% | 19% | |
| 16 | 5% | 7% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 28% | 99.0% | |
| 9 | 50% | 72% | Median |
| 10 | 8% | 22% | |
| 11 | 13% | 13% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 5 | 18% | 98% | |
| 6 | 22% | 80% | |
| 7 | 51% | 58% | Median |
| 8 | 5% | 7% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 41% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 59% | |
| 2 | 27% | 59% | Median |
| 3 | 30% | 32% | |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 77 | 100% | 75–80 | 74–81 | 73–82 | 72–83 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 73 | 99.5% | 70–75 | 70–76 | 69–77 | 68–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 72 | 98% | 68–74 | 68–75 | 68–76 | 66–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 64 | 3% | 61–66 | 60–67 | 60–68 | 59–69 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 61 | 0.1% | 58–63 | 57–64 | 57–65 | 55–66 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 48 | 0% | 45–51 | 45–51 | 44–52 | 43–53 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 49 | 0% | 45–51 | 45–52 | 44–52 | 43–54 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 48 | 0% | 44–49 | 43–50 | 43–51 | 42–52 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 73 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 74 | 6% | 96% | Last Result |
| 75 | 11% | 91% | |
| 76 | 16% | 79% | |
| 77 | 18% | 63% | |
| 78 | 21% | 45% | Median |
| 79 | 9% | 24% | |
| 80 | 6% | 15% | |
| 81 | 4% | 9% | |
| 82 | 3% | 4% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 1.2% | 99.5% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 98% | |
| 70 | 10% | 96% | Last Result |
| 71 | 14% | 86% | |
| 72 | 18% | 72% | |
| 73 | 21% | 54% | Median |
| 74 | 13% | 33% | |
| 75 | 10% | 20% | |
| 76 | 6% | 10% | |
| 77 | 3% | 4% | |
| 78 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 68 | 8% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 90% | |
| 70 | 15% | 81% | |
| 71 | 16% | 66% | |
| 72 | 14% | 50% | |
| 73 | 13% | 36% | Median |
| 74 | 16% | 23% | |
| 75 | 4% | 7% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 4% | 98% | |
| 61 | 6% | 93% | |
| 62 | 16% | 87% | |
| 63 | 18% | 71% | |
| 64 | 20% | 52% | Median |
| 65 | 14% | 33% | |
| 66 | 8% | 18% | Last Result |
| 67 | 7% | 10% | |
| 68 | 2% | 3% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 56 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 57 | 5% | 98% | |
| 58 | 9% | 93% | |
| 59 | 12% | 84% | |
| 60 | 16% | 73% | |
| 61 | 16% | 57% | |
| 62 | 23% | 41% | |
| 63 | 11% | 18% | Median |
| 64 | 4% | 7% | |
| 65 | 3% | 3% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 45 | 9% | 95% | |
| 46 | 12% | 86% | |
| 47 | 12% | 75% | |
| 48 | 16% | 63% | |
| 49 | 25% | 47% | Median |
| 50 | 9% | 22% | |
| 51 | 9% | 13% | |
| 52 | 3% | 4% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 45 | 7% | 97% | |
| 46 | 5% | 90% | |
| 47 | 9% | 85% | |
| 48 | 23% | 76% | |
| 49 | 16% | 53% | |
| 50 | 14% | 37% | |
| 51 | 18% | 23% | Median |
| 52 | 3% | 5% | |
| 53 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 43 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 44 | 5% | 94% | |
| 45 | 11% | 89% | |
| 46 | 14% | 78% | |
| 47 | 12% | 64% | |
| 48 | 27% | 52% | |
| 49 | 15% | 25% | Median |
| 50 | 6% | 10% | |
| 51 | 3% | 4% | |
| 52 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): CEO
- Fieldwork period: 10 February–9 March 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1400
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.08%