Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 29 April–8 May 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 25.2% | 23.8–26.7% | 23.4–27.2% | 23.0–27.5% | 22.4–28.3% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 18.0% | 16.8–19.4% | 16.4–19.7% | 16.1–20.1% | 15.5–20.7% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 16.8% | 15.6–18.1% | 15.2–18.5% | 14.9–18.8% | 14.4–19.4% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 12.9% | 11.8–14.1% | 11.6–14.4% | 11.3–14.8% | 10.8–15.3% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.9–8.7% | 6.6–8.9% | 6.4–9.2% | 6.1–9.7% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.6–7.2% | 5.4–7.5% | 5.2–7.7% | 4.8–8.2% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.4–7.0% | 5.2–7.3% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.7–7.9% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.2–4.5% | 3.0–4.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.7–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 38 | 36–41 | 35–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 24 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 21–26 | 20–28 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 27 | 25–29 | 24–30 | 23–31 | 23–31 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Vox | 0 | 3 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–6 | 0–6 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 99.6% | |
| 35 | 7% | 98% | |
| 36 | 13% | 92% | |
| 37 | 19% | 79% | |
| 38 | 16% | 60% | Median |
| 39 | 17% | 44% | |
| 40 | 13% | 27% | |
| 41 | 11% | 14% | |
| 42 | 2% | 3% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 22 | 2% | 97% | |
| 23 | 17% | 95% | |
| 24 | 41% | 78% | Median |
| 25 | 26% | 37% | |
| 26 | 9% | 11% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 4% | 97% | |
| 25 | 11% | 93% | |
| 26 | 31% | 82% | |
| 27 | 18% | 51% | Median |
| 28 | 13% | 33% | |
| 29 | 12% | 20% | |
| 30 | 5% | 8% | |
| 31 | 3% | 3% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 2% | 98% | |
| 16 | 15% | 95% | |
| 17 | 13% | 80% | |
| 18 | 43% | 67% | Median |
| 19 | 22% | 24% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 8 | 43% | 92% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 20% | 49% | |
| 10 | 19% | 29% | |
| 11 | 9% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 7 | 43% | 96% | |
| 8 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 9 | 33% | 37% | |
| 10 | 4% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 15% | 98% | |
| 8 | 63% | 83% | Median |
| 9 | 17% | 21% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 7% | 98% | |
| 3 | 65% | 90% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 25% | |
| 5 | 16% | 20% | |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 74 | 99.9% | 71–76 | 71–77 | 70–78 | 69–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 73 | 99.8% | 71–76 | 70–76 | 69–77 | 68–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 71 | 97% | 68–74 | 68–75 | 67–76 | 67–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 65 | 10% | 63–68 | 62–68 | 61–69 | 60–70 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 59 | 0% | 56–61 | 55–61 | 55–62 | 53–63 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 53 | 0% | 51–56 | 50–56 | 49–57 | 48–58 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 50 | 0% | 47–52 | 47–53 | 46–53 | 45–54 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 47 | 0% | 44–49 | 43–50 | 43–51 | 42–52 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 71 | 8% | 96% | |
| 72 | 13% | 88% | |
| 73 | 17% | 75% | Median |
| 74 | 23% | 58% | Last Result |
| 75 | 18% | 36% | |
| 76 | 9% | 18% | |
| 77 | 6% | 9% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.8% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 70 | 5% | 97% | Last Result |
| 71 | 12% | 92% | |
| 72 | 19% | 81% | |
| 73 | 21% | 61% | Median |
| 74 | 18% | 41% | |
| 75 | 12% | 22% | |
| 76 | 7% | 10% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 7% | 97% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 90% | |
| 70 | 17% | 77% | Median |
| 71 | 17% | 59% | |
| 72 | 13% | 42% | |
| 73 | 17% | 29% | |
| 74 | 6% | 12% | |
| 75 | 4% | 6% | |
| 76 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 78 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 62 | 5% | 97% | |
| 63 | 11% | 92% | |
| 64 | 23% | 81% | |
| 65 | 21% | 59% | Median |
| 66 | 16% | 38% | Last Result |
| 67 | 11% | 22% | |
| 68 | 6% | 10% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 1.4% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 4% | 98% | |
| 56 | 7% | 93% | |
| 57 | 14% | 87% | |
| 58 | 18% | 72% | Median |
| 59 | 22% | 54% | |
| 60 | 19% | 33% | |
| 61 | 10% | 14% | |
| 62 | 3% | 4% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 50 | 6% | 97% | |
| 51 | 9% | 91% | |
| 52 | 18% | 82% | |
| 53 | 24% | 64% | Median |
| 54 | 16% | 40% | |
| 55 | 13% | 24% | |
| 56 | 7% | 10% | |
| 57 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 2% | 98% | |
| 47 | 8% | 96% | |
| 48 | 10% | 88% | |
| 49 | 20% | 78% | |
| 50 | 26% | 59% | Median |
| 51 | 15% | 32% | |
| 52 | 12% | 18% | |
| 53 | 5% | 6% | |
| 54 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 44 | 8% | 95% | |
| 45 | 14% | 86% | |
| 46 | 16% | 73% | Median |
| 47 | 10% | 56% | |
| 48 | 19% | 46% | |
| 49 | 17% | 27% | |
| 50 | 6% | 10% | |
| 51 | 3% | 4% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 53 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): El Periódico
- Fieldwork period: 29 April–8 May 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1455
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.87%