Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 1 April–15 May 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 21.2% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.2–23.4% | 18.8–23.9% | 18.0–24.7% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 21.1% | 19.5–22.8% | 19.1–23.3% | 18.7–23.7% | 17.9–24.6% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 19.5% | 18.0–21.2% | 17.5–21.7% | 17.2–22.1% | 16.4–22.9% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 9.6% | 8.5–10.9% | 8.2–11.3% | 7.9–11.6% | 7.4–12.2% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 8.7% | 7.7–10.0% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.1–10.6% | 6.6–11.2% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.6–7.6% | 5.3–7.9% | 5.1–8.2% | 4.7–8.8% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.2–5.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 33 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 30–37 | 28–38 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 31 | 28–34 | 28–34 | 28–35 | 26–37 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 26 | 24–28 | 24–29 | 23–30 | 22–31 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 8–16 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 10 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 | 7–14 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 12 | 10–13 | 9–14 | 9–14 | 8–15 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 5–11 |
| Vox | 0 | 3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 1.5% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98% | |
| 31 | 18% | 95% | |
| 32 | 20% | 77% | |
| 33 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 34 | 17% | 44% | Last Result |
| 35 | 12% | 26% | |
| 36 | 6% | 15% | |
| 37 | 7% | 9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 28 | 9% | 98% | |
| 29 | 10% | 89% | |
| 30 | 16% | 79% | |
| 31 | 26% | 63% | Median |
| 32 | 13% | 37% | Last Result |
| 33 | 11% | 25% | |
| 34 | 9% | 13% | |
| 35 | 3% | 5% | |
| 36 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 24 | 17% | 96% | |
| 25 | 23% | 80% | |
| 26 | 32% | 57% | Median |
| 27 | 11% | 25% | |
| 28 | 6% | 13% | |
| 29 | 4% | 7% | |
| 30 | 2% | 3% | |
| 31 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 3% | 98% | |
| 11 | 6% | 94% | |
| 12 | 37% | 88% | |
| 13 | 35% | 51% | Median |
| 14 | 14% | 16% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 15% | 98.8% | Last Result |
| 9 | 20% | 84% | |
| 10 | 20% | 64% | Median |
| 11 | 33% | 44% | |
| 12 | 5% | 11% | |
| 13 | 5% | 6% | |
| 14 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 7% | 98% | |
| 10 | 17% | 91% | |
| 11 | 23% | 74% | |
| 12 | 38% | 51% | Median |
| 13 | 6% | 13% | |
| 14 | 5% | 6% | |
| 15 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 7 | 11% | 98.7% | |
| 8 | 50% | 87% | Median |
| 9 | 31% | 37% | |
| 10 | 3% | 7% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 85% | |
| 2 | 15% | 85% | |
| 3 | 55% | 70% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 15% | |
| 5 | 8% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 74 | 99.8% | 72–77 | 71–78 | 70–79 | 68–80 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 73 | 98.5% | 70–75 | 69–76 | 68–77 | 67–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 67 | 40% | 64–70 | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–73 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 66 | 64 | 7% | 62–67 | 61–68 | 60–69 | 58–71 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 60 | 0.1% | 57–62 | 56–64 | 55–64 | 53–66 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 52 | 0% | 50–55 | 49–56 | 48–57 | 47–58 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 50 | 0% | 47–52 | 46–53 | 45–54 | 44–56 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 41 | 0% | 38–44 | 37–45 | 37–45 | 36–47 |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98% | |
| 71 | 5% | 96% | |
| 72 | 9% | 91% | |
| 73 | 14% | 82% | |
| 74 | 20% | 68% | Last Result, Median |
| 75 | 19% | 49% | |
| 76 | 17% | 30% | |
| 77 | 6% | 13% | |
| 78 | 4% | 7% | |
| 79 | 2% | 3% | |
| 80 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 1.0% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98.5% | Majority |
| 69 | 4% | 96% | |
| 70 | 11% | 93% | Last Result |
| 71 | 12% | 82% | |
| 72 | 17% | 70% | Median |
| 73 | 18% | 53% | |
| 74 | 14% | 34% | |
| 75 | 11% | 20% | |
| 76 | 5% | 9% | |
| 77 | 2% | 4% | |
| 78 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 63 | 4% | 97% | |
| 64 | 8% | 93% | |
| 65 | 11% | 84% | |
| 66 | 12% | 73% | |
| 67 | 21% | 61% | Median |
| 68 | 16% | 40% | Majority |
| 69 | 10% | 24% | |
| 70 | 6% | 14% | |
| 71 | 4% | 8% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 5% | 96% | |
| 62 | 14% | 91% | |
| 63 | 13% | 77% | |
| 64 | 16% | 64% | Median |
| 65 | 20% | 48% | |
| 66 | 12% | 28% | Last Result |
| 67 | 9% | 16% | |
| 68 | 4% | 7% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 71 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 55 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 56 | 5% | 97% | |
| 57 | 8% | 92% | |
| 58 | 9% | 83% | |
| 59 | 19% | 74% | |
| 60 | 22% | 55% | |
| 61 | 12% | 33% | Median |
| 62 | 12% | 21% | |
| 63 | 4% | 9% | |
| 64 | 4% | 5% | |
| 65 | 1.0% | 2% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 67 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 48 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 49 | 5% | 95% | |
| 50 | 7% | 90% | |
| 51 | 16% | 83% | |
| 52 | 24% | 67% | |
| 53 | 18% | 44% | |
| 54 | 12% | 26% | Median |
| 55 | 7% | 14% | |
| 56 | 4% | 7% | |
| 57 | 1.5% | 3% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 45 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 46 | 4% | 97% | |
| 47 | 5% | 93% | |
| 48 | 13% | 88% | |
| 49 | 25% | 75% | |
| 50 | 19% | 50% | |
| 51 | 16% | 31% | Median |
| 52 | 7% | 15% | |
| 53 | 4% | 8% | |
| 54 | 3% | 4% | |
| 55 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 5% | 98% | |
| 38 | 6% | 94% | |
| 39 | 12% | 88% | |
| 40 | 9% | 76% | Last Result |
| 41 | 21% | 66% | Median |
| 42 | 18% | 45% | |
| 43 | 13% | 27% | |
| 44 | 8% | 14% | |
| 45 | 4% | 6% | |
| 46 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: electoPanel
- Commissioner(s): electomania.es
- Fieldwork period: 1 April–15 May 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.40%