Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 6–13 July 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 22.5% | 21.2–24.0% | 20.8–24.4% | 20.5–24.7% | 19.8–25.4% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.3% | 18.0–20.6% | 17.6–21.0% | 17.3–21.4% | 16.7–22.0% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 16.7–19.3% | 16.3–19.6% | 16.0–20.0% | 15.5–20.6% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 11.9% | 10.9–13.0% | 10.6–13.4% | 10.3–13.7% | 9.9–14.2% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.1–8.9% | 6.8–9.2% | 6.6–9.4% | 6.2–9.9% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.2–7.2% | 5.0–7.4% | 4.6–7.9% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.7–6.2% | 4.5–6.5% | 4.4–6.7% | 4.1–7.1% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.7–6.2% | 4.5–6.5% | 4.4–6.7% | 4.1–7.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 34 | 31–36 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 28–32 | 27–33 | 27–34 | 26–35 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 24 | 23–26 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 20–28 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 16 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 6–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 4–9 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 3–9 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 9% | 97% | |
| 32 | 5% | 88% | Last Result |
| 33 | 25% | 83% | |
| 34 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 35 | 28% | 43% | |
| 36 | 10% | 15% | |
| 37 | 2% | 5% | |
| 38 | 2% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98% | |
| 28 | 6% | 95% | |
| 29 | 10% | 89% | |
| 30 | 9% | 79% | |
| 31 | 42% | 70% | Median |
| 32 | 21% | 29% | |
| 33 | 5% | 8% | |
| 34 | 2% | 3% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 21 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 22 | 6% | 98% | |
| 23 | 11% | 91% | |
| 24 | 34% | 81% | Median |
| 25 | 33% | 47% | |
| 26 | 12% | 14% | |
| 27 | 2% | 2% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 19% | 97% | |
| 15 | 10% | 78% | |
| 16 | 40% | 68% | Median |
| 17 | 10% | 28% | |
| 18 | 15% | 18% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 34% | 97% | Last Result |
| 9 | 27% | 63% | Median |
| 10 | 20% | 35% | |
| 11 | 15% | 16% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 95% | |
| 7 | 57% | 89% | Median |
| 8 | 11% | 31% | |
| 9 | 18% | 21% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.2% | 95% | |
| 6 | 12% | 95% | |
| 7 | 32% | 83% | |
| 8 | 47% | 51% | Median |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 5 | 27% | 98% | |
| 6 | 12% | 71% | |
| 7 | 53% | 60% | Median |
| 8 | 3% | 6% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 74 | 99.9% | 71–76 | 70–77 | 70–78 | 69–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 72 | 98% | 69–74 | 68–75 | 68–76 | 66–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 67 | 41% | 65–70 | 64–71 | 64–72 | 62–73 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 65 | 7% | 62–67 | 61–68 | 60–69 | 59–70 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 57 | 0% | 54–59 | 53–60 | 53–61 | 52–62 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 54 | 0% | 51–57 | 51–58 | 50–58 | 49–59 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 48 | 0% | 45–50 | 44–51 | 44–51 | 43–53 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 43 | 0% | 41–46 | 39–46 | 39–47 | 38–48 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 70 | 5% | 98% | |
| 71 | 7% | 93% | |
| 72 | 12% | 87% | |
| 73 | 20% | 75% | |
| 74 | 18% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 75 | 19% | 36% | |
| 76 | 8% | 17% | |
| 77 | 6% | 9% | |
| 78 | 2% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 4% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 94% | |
| 70 | 12% | 86% | Last Result |
| 71 | 14% | 74% | |
| 72 | 21% | 60% | |
| 73 | 15% | 39% | Median |
| 74 | 15% | 24% | |
| 75 | 6% | 10% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 64 | 7% | 98% | |
| 65 | 7% | 91% | |
| 66 | 18% | 84% | |
| 67 | 25% | 66% | Median |
| 68 | 13% | 41% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 28% | |
| 70 | 9% | 16% | |
| 71 | 5% | 8% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 5% | 97% | |
| 62 | 9% | 93% | |
| 63 | 12% | 84% | |
| 64 | 20% | 72% | |
| 65 | 15% | 52% | Median |
| 66 | 19% | 37% | Last Result |
| 67 | 11% | 18% | |
| 68 | 5% | 7% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 53 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 54 | 9% | 95% | |
| 55 | 10% | 86% | |
| 56 | 24% | 76% | Median |
| 57 | 19% | 52% | |
| 58 | 15% | 33% | |
| 59 | 9% | 18% | |
| 60 | 7% | 10% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 51 | 6% | 95% | |
| 52 | 13% | 89% | |
| 53 | 18% | 76% | |
| 54 | 19% | 58% | Median |
| 55 | 18% | 40% | |
| 56 | 10% | 22% | |
| 57 | 6% | 12% | Last Result |
| 58 | 4% | 6% | |
| 59 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 44 | 3% | 98% | |
| 45 | 9% | 95% | |
| 46 | 12% | 86% | |
| 47 | 21% | 74% | Median |
| 48 | 23% | 53% | |
| 49 | 13% | 29% | |
| 50 | 8% | 16% | |
| 51 | 6% | 8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 2% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 40 | 4% | 95% | Last Result |
| 41 | 12% | 91% | |
| 42 | 20% | 79% | |
| 43 | 19% | 59% | Median |
| 44 | 19% | 40% | |
| 45 | 10% | 21% | |
| 46 | 8% | 11% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): El Periódico
- Fieldwork period: 6–13 July 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1479
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.87%