Opinion Poll by GESOP for CEO, 25 June–21 July 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 22.1% | 20.7–23.5% | 20.3–24.0% | 20.0–24.3% | 19.3–25.0% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 20.9% | 19.6–22.4% | 19.2–22.8% | 18.9–23.2% | 18.2–23.9% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 17.0% | 15.8–18.4% | 15.4–18.7% | 15.1–19.1% | 14.5–19.7% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 14.4% | 13.3–15.7% | 13.0–16.1% | 12.7–16.4% | 12.1–17.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.3–9.2% | 7.1–9.5% | 6.9–9.8% | 6.5–10.3% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.8–6.4% | 4.6–6.6% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.1–7.3% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.1–6.0% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.6–6.6% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.8–5.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 33 | 31–35 | 30–36 | 29–37 | 29–38 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 33 | 31–36 | 31–37 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 23 | 21–25 | 20–25 | 20–26 | 18–26 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 19 | 18–21 | 18–22 | 18–22 | 16–24 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–13 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 4–9 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 |
| Vox | 0 | 3 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–6 | 0–7 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 5% | 96% | |
| 31 | 10% | 91% | |
| 32 | 16% | 82% | Last Result |
| 33 | 27% | 65% | Median |
| 34 | 16% | 38% | |
| 35 | 13% | 23% | |
| 36 | 6% | 9% | |
| 37 | 3% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 31 | 16% | 96% | |
| 32 | 20% | 80% | |
| 33 | 14% | 60% | Median |
| 34 | 17% | 46% | Last Result |
| 35 | 14% | 29% | |
| 36 | 8% | 15% | |
| 37 | 6% | 7% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 20 | 4% | 98% | |
| 21 | 6% | 94% | |
| 22 | 12% | 88% | |
| 23 | 33% | 77% | Median |
| 24 | 30% | 44% | |
| 25 | 11% | 14% | |
| 26 | 3% | 3% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 17 | 1.4% | 99.1% | |
| 18 | 14% | 98% | |
| 19 | 42% | 83% | Median |
| 20 | 27% | 41% | |
| 21 | 6% | 14% | |
| 22 | 6% | 8% | |
| 23 | 2% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 24% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 9 | 34% | 75% | Median |
| 10 | 15% | 41% | |
| 11 | 23% | 26% | |
| 12 | 2% | 4% | |
| 13 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 5 | 13% | 98.7% | |
| 6 | 24% | 86% | |
| 7 | 54% | 62% | Median |
| 8 | 5% | 8% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 15% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 5 | 12% | 84% | |
| 6 | 22% | 72% | |
| 7 | 35% | 50% | Median |
| 8 | 15% | 15% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.2% | |
| 2 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 3 | 55% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 8% | 41% | |
| 5 | 28% | 33% | |
| 6 | 4% | 5% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 76 | 100% | 73–78 | 72–79 | 72–80 | 70–81 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 73 | 98.9% | 70–75 | 69–76 | 68–77 | 67–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 66 | 31% | 64–70 | 63–70 | 62–71 | 61–72 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 66 | 20% | 63–68 | 62–69 | 61–70 | 60–71 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 59 | 0% | 56–61 | 55–62 | 55–63 | 53–64 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 53 | 0% | 50–56 | 50–56 | 49–57 | 47–58 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 49 | 0% | 47–51 | 46–52 | 45–53 | 44–54 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 43 | 0% | 40–45 | 39–46 | 38–46 | 37–48 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 71 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 72 | 3% | 98% | |
| 73 | 8% | 95% | |
| 74 | 15% | 87% | Last Result |
| 75 | 16% | 73% | Median |
| 76 | 17% | 56% | |
| 77 | 14% | 39% | |
| 78 | 15% | 24% | |
| 79 | 6% | 10% | |
| 80 | 2% | 3% | |
| 81 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 82 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98.9% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 97% | |
| 70 | 9% | 92% | Last Result |
| 71 | 14% | 83% | |
| 72 | 18% | 69% | |
| 73 | 17% | 52% | Median |
| 74 | 15% | 35% | |
| 75 | 10% | 19% | |
| 76 | 5% | 10% | |
| 77 | 3% | 4% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 62 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 63 | 5% | 97% | |
| 64 | 14% | 91% | |
| 65 | 13% | 77% | |
| 66 | 15% | 64% | Last Result, Median |
| 67 | 19% | 49% | |
| 68 | 11% | 31% | Majority |
| 69 | 10% | 20% | |
| 70 | 7% | 10% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 73 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 62 | 4% | 97% | |
| 63 | 12% | 93% | |
| 64 | 8% | 82% | |
| 65 | 19% | 74% | Median |
| 66 | 14% | 54% | |
| 67 | 21% | 40% | |
| 68 | 11% | 20% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 8% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 55 | 5% | 98% | |
| 56 | 7% | 93% | |
| 57 | 14% | 86% | |
| 58 | 20% | 72% | Median |
| 59 | 17% | 52% | |
| 60 | 17% | 35% | |
| 61 | 10% | 18% | |
| 62 | 5% | 8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.3% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 49 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 50 | 7% | 95% | |
| 51 | 11% | 88% | |
| 52 | 21% | 77% | Median |
| 53 | 18% | 57% | |
| 54 | 17% | 39% | |
| 55 | 11% | 22% | |
| 56 | 6% | 11% | |
| 57 | 3% | 5% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 46 | 5% | 97% | |
| 47 | 8% | 93% | |
| 48 | 15% | 85% | |
| 49 | 28% | 69% | Median |
| 50 | 19% | 41% | |
| 51 | 12% | 22% | |
| 52 | 5% | 9% | |
| 53 | 3% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 55 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 39 | 5% | 97% | |
| 40 | 7% | 92% | Last Result |
| 41 | 13% | 85% | |
| 42 | 18% | 72% | Median |
| 43 | 21% | 54% | |
| 44 | 18% | 33% | |
| 45 | 9% | 15% | |
| 46 | 4% | 6% | |
| 47 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): CEO
- Fieldwork period: 25 June–21 July 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1400
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.66%