Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 31 August 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 22.4% | 21.8–23.0% | 21.6–23.2% | 21.5–23.3% | 21.2–23.6% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 21.4% | 20.8–22.0% | 20.7–22.2% | 20.5–22.3% | 20.2–22.6% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 17.4–18.5% | 17.2–18.6% | 17.1–18.8% | 16.8–19.0% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 10.1% | 9.7–10.5% | 9.6–10.7% | 9.4–10.8% | 9.3–11.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 8.1% | 7.7–8.5% | 7.6–8.6% | 7.5–8.7% | 7.3–8.9% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 7.1% | 6.7–7.5% | 6.6–7.6% | 6.6–7.7% | 6.4–7.9% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2–5.9% | 5.1–5.9% | 5.0–6.0% | 4.9–6.2% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 4.6% | 4.3–4.9% | 4.2–5.0% | 4.2–5.1% | 4.0–5.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 34 | 33–35 | 32–35 | 32–35 | 31–36 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 33 | 32–34 | 32–35 | 32–35 | 32–36 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 24 | 24–25 | 24–25 | 24–25 | 23–26 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 13 | 13–14 | 13–14 | 13–14 | 12–14 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 9 | 9–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–8 |
| Vox | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 7% | 98% | Last Result |
| 33 | 31% | 92% | |
| 34 | 27% | 60% | Median |
| 35 | 33% | 33% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 35% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 28% | 65% | Median |
| 34 | 29% | 36% | Last Result |
| 35 | 5% | 8% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 23 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 24 | 57% | 98% | Median |
| 25 | 40% | 41% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 80% | 98% | Median |
| 14 | 18% | 18% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 14% | 100% | Last Result |
| 9 | 72% | 86% | Median |
| 10 | 12% | 15% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 8 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 76% | 92% | Median |
| 10 | 15% | 15% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 52% | 99.4% | Median |
| 8 | 47% | 47% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 8% | 99.4% | |
| 5 | 91% | 92% | Median |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 76 | 100% | 75–77 | 75–77 | 75–78 | 74–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 74 | 100% | 73–75 | 73–76 | 73–76 | 72–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 68 | 51% | 66–68 | 65–69 | 65–69 | 64–70 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 67 | 26% | 66–68 | 65–68 | 65–69 | 65–69 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 56 | 0% | 55–57 | 54–57 | 54–57 | 53–58 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 52 | 0% | 51–52 | 50–53 | 50–53 | 49–53 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 47 | 0% | 46–47 | 45–48 | 45–48 | 44–48 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 43 | 0% | 41–44 | 41–44 | 41–44 | 40–45 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 75 | 24% | 98% | |
| 76 | 52% | 75% | Median |
| 77 | 20% | 23% | |
| 78 | 3% | 3% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 71 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 72 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 73 | 12% | 98% | |
| 74 | 39% | 86% | Median |
| 75 | 38% | 47% | |
| 76 | 8% | 9% | |
| 77 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0% | 100% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 65 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 66 | 18% | 94% | |
| 67 | 24% | 76% | Median |
| 68 | 44% | 51% | Majority |
| 69 | 7% | 7% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 65 | 6% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 22% | 94% | Last Result |
| 67 | 46% | 72% | Median |
| 68 | 23% | 26% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 3% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 54 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 55 | 39% | 94% | Median |
| 56 | 39% | 55% | |
| 57 | 14% | 16% | |
| 58 | 2% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 8% | 99.0% | |
| 51 | 35% | 91% | Median |
| 52 | 48% | 56% | |
| 53 | 8% | 8% | |
| 54 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 45 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 46 | 35% | 94% | Median |
| 47 | 51% | 59% | |
| 48 | 9% | 9% | |
| 49 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 41 | 8% | 98% | |
| 42 | 21% | 90% | |
| 43 | 38% | 68% | Median |
| 44 | 29% | 31% | |
| 45 | 2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: electoPanel
- Commissioner(s): electomania.es
- Fieldwork period: 31 August 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 8000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.78%