Opinion Poll by GAD3 for La Vanguardia, 1–4 September 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 27.2% | 24.9–29.7% | 24.2–30.4% | 23.7–31.1% | 22.6–32.3% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.8% | 17.8–22.1% | 17.2–22.8% | 16.7–23.4% | 15.8–24.5% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 19.1% | 17.1–21.4% | 16.5–22.0% | 16.0–22.6% | 15.1–23.7% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 10.3% | 8.8–12.1% | 8.4–12.6% | 8.0–13.1% | 7.3–14.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.5–8.2% | 5.2–8.7% | 4.9–9.1% | 4.4–9.9% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.3–8.0% | 5.0–8.5% | 4.7–8.9% | 4.2–9.6% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.2–5.4% | 3.0–5.8% | 2.8–6.2% | 2.4–6.8% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.8–5.6% | 2.6–5.9% | 2.3–6.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 41 | 37–44 | 36–46 | 35–47 | 33–49 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 28–35 | 26–37 | 26–37 | 25–38 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 25 | 23–29 | 22–30 | 21–31 | 19–32 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 13 | 12–16 | 11–17 | 9–18 | 8–19 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 7 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 4–11 | 4–12 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 8 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 5–12 | 4–13 |
| Vox | 0 | 4 | 3–7 | 2–7 | 0–7 | 0–9 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 4 | 0–7 | 0–8 | 0–8 | 0–8 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 33 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 35 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 97% | |
| 37 | 8% | 95% | |
| 38 | 8% | 86% | |
| 39 | 11% | 78% | |
| 40 | 7% | 66% | |
| 41 | 14% | 59% | Median |
| 42 | 13% | 45% | |
| 43 | 11% | 32% | |
| 44 | 11% | 21% | |
| 45 | 4% | 10% | |
| 46 | 2% | 5% | |
| 47 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 48 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 26 | 4% | 98% | |
| 27 | 3% | 94% | |
| 28 | 6% | 91% | |
| 29 | 12% | 86% | |
| 30 | 8% | 73% | |
| 31 | 20% | 66% | Median |
| 32 | 20% | 45% | |
| 33 | 9% | 25% | |
| 34 | 4% | 16% | Last Result |
| 35 | 4% | 12% | |
| 36 | 3% | 8% | |
| 37 | 3% | 5% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 20 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 21 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 22 | 3% | 97% | |
| 23 | 5% | 94% | |
| 24 | 16% | 89% | |
| 25 | 25% | 73% | Median |
| 26 | 20% | 48% | |
| 27 | 10% | 28% | |
| 28 | 5% | 18% | |
| 29 | 3% | 13% | |
| 30 | 6% | 10% | |
| 31 | 3% | 4% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 97% | |
| 11 | 2% | 96% | |
| 12 | 21% | 94% | |
| 13 | 29% | 73% | Median |
| 14 | 22% | 43% | |
| 15 | 6% | 22% | |
| 16 | 8% | 15% | |
| 17 | 4% | 8% | |
| 18 | 3% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 15% | 97% | |
| 6 | 8% | 83% | |
| 7 | 26% | 74% | Median |
| 8 | 31% | 49% | Last Result |
| 9 | 8% | 17% | |
| 10 | 5% | 9% | |
| 11 | 4% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 5 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 5% | 94% | |
| 7 | 33% | 89% | |
| 8 | 10% | 55% | Median |
| 9 | 26% | 46% | |
| 10 | 11% | 19% | |
| 11 | 4% | 8% | |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 5% | 97% | |
| 3 | 38% | 92% | |
| 4 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 5 | 25% | 43% | |
| 6 | 6% | 18% | |
| 7 | 11% | 12% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 9 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 90% | |
| 2 | 9% | 90% | |
| 3 | 19% | 81% | |
| 4 | 32% | 63% | Last Result, Median |
| 5 | 11% | 31% | |
| 6 | 6% | 20% | |
| 7 | 9% | 14% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 79 | 100% | 75–83 | 74–85 | 73–86 | 71–88 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 76 | 99.6% | 72–81 | 71–82 | 69–83 | 68–85 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 74 | 98% | 70–78 | 68–80 | 68–80 | 66–83 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 72 | 92% | 68–76 | 67–78 | 66–79 | 64–81 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 55 | 0% | 50–59 | 50–60 | 49–61 | 46–63 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 52 | 0% | 47–56 | 46–57 | 45–58 | 43–60 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 49 | 0% | 44–52 | 43–54 | 42–55 | 41–57 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 47 | 0% | 43–51 | 43–52 | 41–53 | 40–56 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 71 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 99.0% | |
| 73 | 2% | 98% | |
| 74 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 75 | 4% | 93% | |
| 76 | 6% | 89% | |
| 77 | 9% | 83% | |
| 78 | 15% | 74% | |
| 79 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 80 | 9% | 49% | |
| 81 | 10% | 40% | |
| 82 | 11% | 30% | |
| 83 | 10% | 19% | |
| 84 | 3% | 9% | |
| 85 | 2% | 6% | |
| 86 | 2% | 4% | |
| 87 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 88 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.5% | 99.6% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 70 | 2% | 97% | Last Result |
| 71 | 3% | 96% | |
| 72 | 5% | 93% | |
| 73 | 5% | 87% | |
| 74 | 8% | 82% | |
| 75 | 17% | 74% | |
| 76 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 77 | 12% | 42% | |
| 78 | 9% | 30% | |
| 79 | 7% | 21% | |
| 80 | 4% | 14% | |
| 81 | 4% | 10% | |
| 82 | 3% | 6% | |
| 83 | 2% | 3% | |
| 84 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 85 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 67 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 68 | 3% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 95% | |
| 70 | 7% | 91% | |
| 71 | 8% | 85% | |
| 72 | 10% | 76% | |
| 73 | 9% | 67% | Median |
| 74 | 11% | 58% | |
| 75 | 13% | 47% | |
| 76 | 12% | 34% | |
| 77 | 8% | 22% | |
| 78 | 5% | 15% | |
| 79 | 4% | 9% | |
| 80 | 3% | 5% | |
| 81 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 83 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 84 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 87 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 1.2% | 99.1% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 67 | 4% | 96% | |
| 68 | 5% | 92% | Majority |
| 69 | 7% | 87% | |
| 70 | 10% | 80% | |
| 71 | 13% | 70% | |
| 72 | 12% | 57% | Median |
| 73 | 12% | 45% | |
| 74 | 8% | 33% | |
| 75 | 9% | 26% | |
| 76 | 8% | 17% | |
| 77 | 4% | 9% | |
| 78 | 2% | 5% | |
| 79 | 2% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.6% | 1.5% | |
| 81 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 84 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 0.7% | 99.4% | |
| 48 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 49 | 3% | 98% | |
| 50 | 5% | 95% | |
| 51 | 5% | 90% | |
| 52 | 7% | 84% | |
| 53 | 10% | 78% | Median |
| 54 | 13% | 67% | |
| 55 | 12% | 54% | |
| 56 | 14% | 42% | |
| 57 | 12% | 28% | |
| 58 | 6% | 16% | |
| 59 | 4% | 10% | |
| 60 | 2% | 6% | |
| 61 | 2% | 4% | |
| 62 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 63 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 44 | 0.7% | 99.3% | |
| 45 | 1.1% | 98.6% | |
| 46 | 3% | 97% | |
| 47 | 4% | 94% | |
| 48 | 8% | 90% | |
| 49 | 7% | 82% | |
| 50 | 10% | 75% | Median |
| 51 | 14% | 64% | |
| 52 | 12% | 50% | |
| 53 | 13% | 38% | |
| 54 | 8% | 25% | |
| 55 | 7% | 17% | |
| 56 | 5% | 10% | |
| 57 | 2% | 5% | Last Result |
| 58 | 2% | 3% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 42 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 43 | 3% | 97% | |
| 44 | 6% | 93% | |
| 45 | 9% | 88% | |
| 46 | 8% | 79% | |
| 47 | 10% | 71% | |
| 48 | 8% | 61% | Median |
| 49 | 16% | 53% | |
| 50 | 11% | 36% | |
| 51 | 13% | 25% | |
| 52 | 4% | 12% | |
| 53 | 2% | 8% | |
| 54 | 3% | 6% | |
| 55 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 56 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 41 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 42 | 2% | 97% | |
| 43 | 6% | 95% | |
| 44 | 6% | 90% | |
| 45 | 10% | 84% | |
| 46 | 12% | 73% | Median |
| 47 | 13% | 61% | |
| 48 | 13% | 48% | |
| 49 | 12% | 35% | |
| 50 | 8% | 23% | |
| 51 | 7% | 15% | |
| 52 | 3% | 8% | |
| 53 | 3% | 5% | |
| 54 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 1.0% | |
| 56 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.2% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GAD3
- Commissioner(s): La Vanguardia
- Fieldwork period: 1–4 September 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 555
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.36%