Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 28 September–2 October 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 23.2% | 21.3–25.3% | 20.8–25.9% | 20.3–26.5% | 19.4–27.5% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.9% | 18.1–21.9% | 17.6–22.5% | 17.2–23.0% | 16.4–24.0% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 17.7% | 16.0–19.7% | 15.5–20.2% | 15.1–20.7% | 14.3–21.6% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 12.0% | 10.5–13.6% | 10.1–14.1% | 9.8–14.5% | 9.2–15.4% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.7–9.3% | 6.4–9.7% | 6.1–10.0% | 5.6–10.8% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 7.6% | 6.4–9.0% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.9–9.7% | 5.3–10.4% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.6–6.8% | 3.2–7.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.7–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.2–6.3% | 2.9–6.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 35 | 31–38 | 31–39 | 30–40 | 28–41 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 28–34 | 27–36 | 26–37 | 25–38 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 24 | 21–26 | 20–26 | 19–28 | 18–29 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 15 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 12–20 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 9 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 | 5–13 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 10 | 7–12 | 7–12 | 7–13 | 6–14 |
| Vox | 0 | 6 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 3–8 | 2–9 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 5 | 3–7 | 3–8 | 2–8 | 0–9 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 99.2% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98% | |
| 31 | 8% | 96% | |
| 32 | 9% | 88% | Last Result |
| 33 | 10% | 79% | |
| 34 | 9% | 69% | |
| 35 | 21% | 59% | Median |
| 36 | 15% | 38% | |
| 37 | 9% | 23% | |
| 38 | 7% | 14% | |
| 39 | 4% | 7% | |
| 40 | 2% | 3% | |
| 41 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 42 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 27 | 3% | 96% | |
| 28 | 4% | 93% | |
| 29 | 9% | 89% | |
| 30 | 11% | 81% | |
| 31 | 23% | 70% | Median |
| 32 | 18% | 46% | |
| 33 | 10% | 29% | |
| 34 | 9% | 18% | Last Result |
| 35 | 4% | 9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 5% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 19 | 2% | 98% | |
| 20 | 3% | 96% | |
| 21 | 5% | 93% | |
| 22 | 5% | 88% | |
| 23 | 20% | 83% | |
| 24 | 29% | 63% | Median |
| 25 | 18% | 34% | |
| 26 | 11% | 16% | |
| 27 | 2% | 4% | |
| 28 | 2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 31 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 10% | 98% | |
| 14 | 25% | 88% | |
| 15 | 14% | 64% | Median |
| 16 | 15% | 49% | |
| 17 | 10% | 34% | |
| 18 | 16% | 24% | |
| 19 | 6% | 8% | |
| 20 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 7 | 10% | 96% | |
| 8 | 34% | 85% | Last Result |
| 9 | 25% | 52% | Median |
| 10 | 10% | 27% | |
| 11 | 14% | 17% | |
| 12 | 1.4% | 4% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 10% | 99.2% | |
| 8 | 10% | 90% | |
| 9 | 28% | 80% | |
| 10 | 26% | 52% | Median |
| 11 | 10% | 26% | |
| 12 | 13% | 16% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 3% | |
| 14 | 2% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 11% | 99.4% | |
| 4 | 7% | 88% | |
| 5 | 28% | 81% | |
| 6 | 18% | 52% | Median |
| 7 | 30% | 35% | |
| 8 | 3% | 5% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 98.8% | |
| 2 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 3 | 9% | 97% | |
| 4 | 32% | 88% | Last Result |
| 5 | 11% | 56% | Median |
| 6 | 14% | 45% | |
| 7 | 20% | 30% | |
| 8 | 9% | 10% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 75 | 99.5% | 71–79 | 70–80 | 69–81 | 67–83 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 71 | 92% | 68–75 | 67–76 | 66–77 | 64–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 67 | 50% | 63–71 | 62–72 | 61–73 | 60–75 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 66 | 32% | 62–70 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 59–74 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 58 | 0.1% | 54–61 | 53–63 | 52–64 | 51–66 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 55 | 0% | 51–59 | 50–59 | 49–60 | 47–62 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 49 | 0% | 46–53 | 45–53 | 44–54 | 42–56 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 44 | 0% | 40–47 | 39–48 | 38–49 | 36–51 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 99.5% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 70 | 4% | 97% | |
| 71 | 4% | 93% | |
| 72 | 10% | 88% | |
| 73 | 9% | 79% | |
| 74 | 14% | 70% | Last Result |
| 75 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 76 | 14% | 43% | |
| 77 | 8% | 29% | |
| 78 | 9% | 21% | |
| 79 | 5% | 12% | |
| 80 | 4% | 7% | |
| 81 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 86 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 4% | 96% | |
| 68 | 9% | 92% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 83% | |
| 70 | 13% | 74% | Last Result |
| 71 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 72 | 15% | 50% | |
| 73 | 9% | 34% | |
| 74 | 13% | 25% | |
| 75 | 4% | 12% | |
| 76 | 3% | 8% | |
| 77 | 3% | 5% | |
| 78 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 61 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 62 | 3% | 97% | |
| 63 | 6% | 94% | |
| 64 | 6% | 88% | |
| 65 | 7% | 82% | |
| 66 | 12% | 75% | |
| 67 | 13% | 63% | |
| 68 | 15% | 50% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 34% | |
| 70 | 8% | 23% | |
| 71 | 6% | 15% | |
| 72 | 4% | 9% | |
| 73 | 2% | 5% | |
| 74 | 2% | 2% | |
| 75 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 76 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 1.4% | 98.9% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 5% | 94% | |
| 63 | 8% | 90% | |
| 64 | 12% | 82% | |
| 65 | 14% | 71% | |
| 66 | 16% | 57% | Last Result, Median |
| 67 | 9% | 41% | |
| 68 | 8% | 32% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 24% | |
| 70 | 8% | 15% | |
| 71 | 4% | 7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 52 | 1.5% | 98.9% | |
| 53 | 4% | 97% | |
| 54 | 4% | 94% | |
| 55 | 7% | 90% | |
| 56 | 13% | 82% | |
| 57 | 11% | 69% | |
| 58 | 15% | 57% | Median |
| 59 | 14% | 43% | |
| 60 | 10% | 29% | |
| 61 | 10% | 19% | |
| 62 | 4% | 9% | |
| 63 | 3% | 6% | |
| 64 | 2% | 3% | |
| 65 | 0.6% | 1.2% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 50 | 4% | 96% | |
| 51 | 4% | 92% | |
| 52 | 8% | 88% | |
| 53 | 12% | 81% | |
| 54 | 18% | 69% | |
| 55 | 10% | 51% | Median |
| 56 | 12% | 40% | |
| 57 | 11% | 28% | Last Result |
| 58 | 7% | 17% | |
| 59 | 6% | 10% | |
| 60 | 3% | 5% | |
| 61 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 44 | 3% | 98% | |
| 45 | 4% | 95% | |
| 46 | 6% | 91% | |
| 47 | 13% | 86% | |
| 48 | 15% | 73% | |
| 49 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 50 | 14% | 45% | |
| 51 | 13% | 32% | |
| 52 | 8% | 19% | |
| 53 | 7% | 11% | |
| 54 | 2% | 5% | |
| 55 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 38 | 3% | 98% | |
| 39 | 3% | 96% | |
| 40 | 7% | 93% | Last Result |
| 41 | 9% | 85% | |
| 42 | 10% | 77% | |
| 43 | 14% | 67% | |
| 44 | 20% | 53% | Median |
| 45 | 9% | 33% | |
| 46 | 11% | 25% | |
| 47 | 5% | 14% | |
| 48 | 4% | 9% | |
| 49 | 3% | 4% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 28 September–2 October 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 727
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.10%