Opinion Poll by GESOP for CEO, 29 September–9 October 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 23.4% | 21.7–25.2% | 21.2–25.7% | 20.8–26.2% | 20.0–27.0% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.4% | 17.8–21.1% | 17.4–21.6% | 17.0–22.0% | 16.3–22.8% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 18.1% | 16.6–19.7% | 16.1–20.2% | 15.8–20.6% | 15.1–21.4% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 12.0% | 10.7–13.4% | 10.4–13.8% | 10.1–14.2% | 9.5–14.9% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.6–8.8% | 6.3–9.1% | 6.1–9.4% | 5.6–10.0% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.1% | 4.9–7.5% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.3% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.1–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.7–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.5% | 3.6–5.8% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 35 | 33–38 | 32–39 | 31–40 | 30–42 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 29–34 | 27–35 | 27–36 | 26–37 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 25 | 23–26 | 22–27 | 21–28 | 20–30 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 16 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 13–19 | 13–20 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 9 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–11 | 5–13 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–8 | 3–9 |
| Vox | 0 | 5 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 32 | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 33 | 5% | 92% | |
| 34 | 17% | 87% | |
| 35 | 23% | 70% | Median |
| 36 | 14% | 46% | |
| 37 | 14% | 32% | |
| 38 | 10% | 18% | |
| 39 | 4% | 8% | |
| 40 | 2% | 4% | |
| 41 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 27 | 3% | 98% | |
| 28 | 3% | 95% | |
| 29 | 11% | 92% | |
| 30 | 9% | 81% | |
| 31 | 27% | 72% | Median |
| 32 | 21% | 45% | |
| 33 | 11% | 23% | |
| 34 | 6% | 12% | Last Result |
| 35 | 3% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | |
| 37 | 1.3% | 1.5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 21 | 2% | 98% | |
| 22 | 3% | 96% | |
| 23 | 10% | 94% | |
| 24 | 23% | 84% | |
| 25 | 33% | 61% | Median |
| 26 | 19% | 28% | |
| 27 | 5% | 8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 4% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 30 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 31 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 25% | 96% | |
| 15 | 12% | 70% | |
| 16 | 18% | 59% | Median |
| 17 | 13% | 40% | |
| 18 | 16% | 27% | |
| 19 | 10% | 11% | |
| 20 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 7 | 8% | 97% | |
| 8 | 38% | 88% | Last Result |
| 9 | 25% | 51% | Median |
| 10 | 13% | 26% | |
| 11 | 12% | 13% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 5 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 9% | 95% | |
| 7 | 50% | 86% | Median |
| 8 | 10% | 37% | |
| 9 | 22% | 26% | |
| 10 | 4% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 20% | 97% | Last Result |
| 5 | 9% | 77% | |
| 6 | 15% | 68% | |
| 7 | 33% | 53% | Median |
| 8 | 19% | 20% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 19% | 99.0% | |
| 4 | 11% | 80% | |
| 5 | 40% | 69% | Median |
| 6 | 13% | 29% | |
| 7 | 15% | 16% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 76 | 99.9% | 72–79 | 71–80 | 70–81 | 69–82 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 73 | 98.9% | 70–76 | 69–77 | 68–78 | 67–80 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 69 | 74% | 66–72 | 65–73 | 64–74 | 62–76 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 67 | 41% | 64–70 | 63–71 | 62–72 | 60–74 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 57 | 0% | 54–60 | 53–61 | 52–62 | 51–63 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 53 | 0% | 50–57 | 49–58 | 48–58 | 46–59 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 48 | 0% | 45–51 | 44–52 | 44–53 | 42–54 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 44 | 0% | 42–48 | 41–49 | 40–49 | 38–51 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 71 | 3% | 97% | |
| 72 | 6% | 94% | |
| 73 | 7% | 88% | |
| 74 | 13% | 81% | Last Result |
| 75 | 16% | 68% | Median |
| 76 | 15% | 51% | |
| 77 | 13% | 36% | |
| 78 | 10% | 23% | |
| 79 | 6% | 13% | |
| 80 | 4% | 7% | |
| 81 | 2% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 83 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98.9% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 96% | |
| 70 | 6% | 91% | Last Result |
| 71 | 11% | 85% | |
| 72 | 15% | 74% | |
| 73 | 18% | 59% | Median |
| 74 | 13% | 41% | |
| 75 | 12% | 28% | |
| 76 | 8% | 16% | |
| 77 | 4% | 8% | |
| 78 | 2% | 4% | |
| 79 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 80 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98% | |
| 65 | 3% | 96% | |
| 66 | 6% | 93% | |
| 67 | 13% | 87% | |
| 68 | 15% | 74% | Majority |
| 69 | 20% | 59% | Median |
| 70 | 11% | 39% | |
| 71 | 12% | 28% | |
| 72 | 7% | 17% | |
| 73 | 6% | 10% | |
| 74 | 2% | 4% | |
| 75 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 77 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 61 | 1.1% | 99.5% | |
| 62 | 3% | 98% | |
| 63 | 4% | 95% | |
| 64 | 9% | 92% | |
| 65 | 12% | 83% | |
| 66 | 17% | 71% | Last Result, Median |
| 67 | 13% | 54% | |
| 68 | 15% | 41% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 25% | |
| 70 | 7% | 14% | |
| 71 | 4% | 8% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 53 | 4% | 97% | |
| 54 | 7% | 93% | |
| 55 | 12% | 86% | |
| 56 | 15% | 74% | |
| 57 | 15% | 60% | Median |
| 58 | 19% | 45% | |
| 59 | 11% | 26% | |
| 60 | 7% | 14% | |
| 61 | 4% | 7% | |
| 62 | 2% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98% | |
| 49 | 4% | 96% | |
| 50 | 6% | 92% | |
| 51 | 8% | 86% | |
| 52 | 15% | 78% | |
| 53 | 19% | 64% | Median |
| 54 | 16% | 45% | |
| 55 | 12% | 29% | |
| 56 | 6% | 17% | |
| 57 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 58 | 4% | 6% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 60 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 99.0% | |
| 44 | 5% | 98% | |
| 45 | 6% | 93% | |
| 46 | 8% | 88% | |
| 47 | 15% | 80% | |
| 48 | 16% | 65% | Median |
| 49 | 20% | 48% | |
| 50 | 13% | 28% | |
| 51 | 5% | 15% | |
| 52 | 5% | 10% | |
| 53 | 3% | 4% | |
| 54 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 36 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 39 | 1.3% | 99.2% | |
| 40 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 41 | 5% | 95% | |
| 42 | 11% | 91% | |
| 43 | 21% | 80% | |
| 44 | 18% | 59% | Median |
| 45 | 9% | 41% | |
| 46 | 14% | 32% | |
| 47 | 7% | 17% | |
| 48 | 5% | 10% | |
| 49 | 3% | 5% | |
| 50 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): CEO
- Fieldwork period: 29 September–9 October 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 975
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.14%