Opinion Poll by Key Data for Público, 17 October 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 24.2% | 21.4–27.2% | 20.7–28.1% | 20.0–28.9% | 18.8–30.4% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.7% | 17.2–22.6% | 16.5–23.4% | 15.9–24.2% | 14.8–25.6% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 16.9% | 14.6–19.7% | 14.0–20.5% | 13.4–21.2% | 12.4–22.6% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 12.2% | 10.3–14.7% | 9.7–15.4% | 9.2–16.0% | 8.4–17.3% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.0–9.6% | 5.6–10.2% | 5.2–10.7% | 4.6–11.8% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.0–8.4% | 4.6–8.9% | 4.3–9.4% | 3.7–10.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.6–6.5% | 3.2–7.0% | 3.0–7.4% | 2.5–8.4% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.1–5.9% | 2.8–6.3% | 2.5–6.8% | 2.1–7.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 36 | 32–42 | 31–43 | 30–44 | 28–46 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 27–37 | 26–37 | 25–38 | 23–41 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 23 | 19–26 | 18–28 | 17–29 | 16–31 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 17 | 13–20 | 13–20 | 12–22 | 11–24 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 6–11 | 5–13 | 5–14 | 4–15 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 8 | 6–11 | 5–12 | 5–12 | 3–14 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 6 | 3–8 | 2–9 | 0–9 | 0–11 |
| Vox | 0 | 5 | 2–7 | 0–7 | 0–9 | 0–10 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 1.5% | 99.1% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98% | |
| 31 | 3% | 96% | |
| 32 | 4% | 93% | Last Result |
| 33 | 8% | 89% | |
| 34 | 8% | 80% | |
| 35 | 11% | 72% | |
| 36 | 12% | 61% | Median |
| 37 | 9% | 49% | |
| 38 | 9% | 40% | |
| 39 | 8% | 31% | |
| 40 | 8% | 24% | |
| 41 | 5% | 16% | |
| 42 | 4% | 10% | |
| 43 | 2% | 7% | |
| 44 | 2% | 4% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 48 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 25 | 3% | 98% | |
| 26 | 5% | 95% | |
| 27 | 4% | 91% | |
| 28 | 5% | 87% | |
| 29 | 9% | 82% | |
| 30 | 8% | 74% | |
| 31 | 17% | 66% | Median |
| 32 | 13% | 49% | |
| 33 | 10% | 36% | |
| 34 | 7% | 26% | Last Result |
| 35 | 4% | 19% | |
| 36 | 4% | 15% | |
| 37 | 6% | 11% | |
| 38 | 3% | 5% | |
| 39 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 41 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 3% | 98.7% | Last Result |
| 18 | 5% | 95% | |
| 19 | 4% | 90% | |
| 20 | 7% | 86% | |
| 21 | 7% | 79% | |
| 22 | 11% | 72% | |
| 23 | 11% | 61% | Median |
| 24 | 19% | 50% | |
| 25 | 15% | 30% | |
| 26 | 8% | 16% | |
| 27 | 2% | 8% | |
| 28 | 3% | 5% | |
| 29 | 0.8% | 3% | |
| 30 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 31 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 99.6% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 10% | 97% | |
| 14 | 16% | 86% | |
| 15 | 8% | 70% | |
| 16 | 11% | 62% | |
| 17 | 8% | 51% | Median |
| 18 | 20% | 43% | |
| 19 | 12% | 23% | |
| 20 | 6% | 11% | |
| 21 | 2% | 5% | |
| 22 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 24 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 5 | 6% | 99.1% | |
| 6 | 6% | 93% | |
| 7 | 12% | 87% | |
| 8 | 29% | 75% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 16% | 46% | |
| 10 | 8% | 30% | |
| 11 | 13% | 23% | |
| 12 | 3% | 9% | |
| 13 | 3% | 6% | |
| 14 | 2% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 5 | 7% | 98% | |
| 6 | 7% | 91% | |
| 7 | 27% | 83% | |
| 8 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 9 | 17% | 43% | |
| 10 | 13% | 26% | |
| 11 | 5% | 13% | |
| 12 | 6% | 8% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 14 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 4% | 97% | |
| 3 | 9% | 94% | |
| 4 | 18% | 84% | Last Result |
| 5 | 9% | 66% | |
| 6 | 9% | 57% | Median |
| 7 | 18% | 48% | |
| 8 | 22% | 30% | |
| 9 | 6% | 8% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 6% | 94% | |
| 3 | 29% | 88% | |
| 4 | 6% | 59% | |
| 5 | 25% | 54% | Median |
| 6 | 10% | 28% | |
| 7 | 14% | 18% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 77 | 99.1% | 72–82 | 70–84 | 69–85 | 67–88 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 74 | 94% | 69–79 | 67–81 | 66–82 | 64–85 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 68 | 57% | 63–74 | 62–75 | 60–77 | 58–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 68 | 58% | 63–74 | 61–75 | 60–77 | 58–79 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 56 | 0.4% | 51–62 | 50–63 | 49–65 | 46–67 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 52 | 0% | 47–58 | 45–59 | 44–60 | 42–63 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 48 | 0% | 42–53 | 41–54 | 40–55 | 37–58 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 45 | 0% | 40–50 | 39–52 | 38–54 | 36–56 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 68 | 1.0% | 99.1% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 2% | 96% | |
| 71 | 3% | 94% | |
| 72 | 5% | 91% | |
| 73 | 7% | 86% | |
| 74 | 7% | 79% | Last Result |
| 75 | 8% | 72% | Median |
| 76 | 9% | 64% | |
| 77 | 10% | 55% | |
| 78 | 8% | 45% | |
| 79 | 10% | 37% | |
| 80 | 7% | 27% | |
| 81 | 5% | 20% | |
| 82 | 5% | 15% | |
| 83 | 4% | 10% | |
| 84 | 2% | 6% | |
| 85 | 2% | 4% | |
| 86 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 87 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 88 | 0.3% | 0.7% | |
| 89 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 90 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 91 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 92 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 1.1% | 99.1% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98% | |
| 67 | 2% | 96% | |
| 68 | 4% | 94% | Majority |
| 69 | 4% | 91% | |
| 70 | 5% | 86% | Last Result |
| 71 | 6% | 82% | |
| 72 | 9% | 75% | |
| 73 | 8% | 66% | Median |
| 74 | 11% | 58% | |
| 75 | 9% | 47% | |
| 76 | 11% | 38% | |
| 77 | 6% | 27% | |
| 78 | 6% | 21% | |
| 79 | 5% | 15% | |
| 80 | 3% | 10% | |
| 81 | 3% | 7% | |
| 82 | 1.5% | 3% | |
| 83 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 84 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 85 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 86 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 87 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 88 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 89 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.3% | 99.5% | |
| 59 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 2% | 97% | |
| 62 | 3% | 95% | |
| 63 | 4% | 92% | |
| 64 | 7% | 88% | |
| 65 | 6% | 81% | |
| 66 | 8% | 76% | |
| 67 | 11% | 68% | Median |
| 68 | 7% | 57% | Majority |
| 69 | 10% | 49% | |
| 70 | 8% | 39% | |
| 71 | 7% | 31% | |
| 72 | 7% | 25% | |
| 73 | 5% | 17% | |
| 74 | 4% | 12% | |
| 75 | 3% | 8% | |
| 76 | 2% | 5% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 60 | 1.1% | 98% | |
| 61 | 2% | 97% | |
| 62 | 3% | 95% | |
| 63 | 4% | 92% | |
| 64 | 6% | 87% | |
| 65 | 7% | 81% | |
| 66 | 9% | 75% | Last Result |
| 67 | 8% | 66% | Median |
| 68 | 10% | 58% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 48% | |
| 70 | 9% | 40% | |
| 71 | 8% | 30% | |
| 72 | 6% | 22% | |
| 73 | 5% | 16% | |
| 74 | 5% | 11% | |
| 75 | 2% | 6% | |
| 76 | 2% | 4% | |
| 77 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.8% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 47 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 48 | 1.2% | 98.8% | |
| 49 | 2% | 98% | |
| 50 | 3% | 96% | |
| 51 | 4% | 93% | |
| 52 | 6% | 89% | |
| 53 | 8% | 83% | |
| 54 | 8% | 75% | |
| 55 | 7% | 67% | |
| 56 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 57 | 10% | 50% | |
| 58 | 9% | 40% | |
| 59 | 7% | 30% | |
| 60 | 7% | 23% | |
| 61 | 6% | 16% | |
| 62 | 4% | 10% | |
| 63 | 3% | 7% | |
| 64 | 1.3% | 4% | |
| 65 | 1.4% | 3% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.5% | 1.3% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 68 | 0.2% | 0.4% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 71 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 43 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 98% | |
| 45 | 3% | 97% | |
| 46 | 2% | 94% | |
| 47 | 4% | 92% | |
| 48 | 6% | 87% | |
| 49 | 7% | 81% | |
| 50 | 9% | 74% | |
| 51 | 8% | 66% | |
| 52 | 12% | 58% | |
| 53 | 10% | 46% | Median |
| 54 | 8% | 36% | |
| 55 | 8% | 28% | |
| 56 | 5% | 19% | |
| 57 | 4% | 14% | Last Result |
| 58 | 4% | 10% | |
| 59 | 3% | 6% | |
| 60 | 1.5% | 4% | |
| 61 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 1.1% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 39 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 40 | 2% | 98% | |
| 41 | 2% | 97% | |
| 42 | 5% | 95% | |
| 43 | 4% | 90% | |
| 44 | 6% | 86% | |
| 45 | 9% | 80% | |
| 46 | 11% | 71% | |
| 47 | 10% | 61% | |
| 48 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 49 | 9% | 43% | |
| 50 | 11% | 34% | |
| 51 | 6% | 22% | |
| 52 | 6% | 17% | |
| 53 | 4% | 11% | |
| 54 | 3% | 7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 4% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.7% | 1.3% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 1.4% | 99.2% | |
| 38 | 2% | 98% | |
| 39 | 2% | 96% | |
| 40 | 4% | 94% | Last Result |
| 41 | 4% | 89% | |
| 42 | 7% | 85% | |
| 43 | 11% | 78% | |
| 44 | 10% | 68% | Median |
| 45 | 12% | 58% | |
| 46 | 8% | 46% | |
| 47 | 7% | 38% | |
| 48 | 8% | 31% | |
| 49 | 7% | 23% | |
| 50 | 6% | 16% | |
| 51 | 4% | 10% | |
| 52 | 2% | 6% | |
| 53 | 2% | 5% | |
| 54 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 55 | 0.7% | 1.4% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Key Data
- Commissioner(s): Público
- Fieldwork period: 17 October 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 360
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 2.65%