Opinion Poll by GESOP, 19–23 October 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 22.9% 21.5–24.4% 21.1–24.8% 20.8–25.1% 20.2–25.8%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 18.3% 17.1–19.7% 16.7–20.1% 16.4–20.4% 15.8–21.0%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 17.5% 16.3–18.8% 15.9–19.2% 15.6–19.5% 15.1–20.2%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 12.5% 11.5–13.7% 11.2–14.0% 10.9–14.3% 10.4–14.9%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.3% 6.5–8.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.1–8.8% 5.7–9.3%
Partit Popular 4.2% 6.2% 5.5–7.1% 5.3–7.4% 5.1–7.6% 4.8–8.0%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 5.8% 5.1–6.7% 4.9–6.9% 4.7–7.1% 4.4–7.6%
Vox 0.0% 5.1% 4.5–5.9% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.4% 3.8–6.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 35 33–37 32–38 31–39 30–40
Junts per Catalunya 34 30 26–31 26–32 26–32 25–34
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 24 22–26 21–26 20–26 20–27
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 17 15–19 14–19 14–19 14–20
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 7–10 7–10 6–11 6–11
Partit Popular 4 7 7–9 7–9 6–10 5–10
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 8 7–8 6–9 5–9 4–10
Vox 0 6 5–7 5–7 4–8 3–9

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.4% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.6%  
31 4% 99.1%  
32 4% 95% Last Result
33 10% 91%  
34 20% 81%  
35 33% 61% Median
36 17% 29%  
37 5% 11%  
38 3% 6%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.5% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 1.0% 99.9%  
26 10% 99.0%  
27 7% 89%  
28 9% 82%  
29 17% 73%  
30 15% 56% Median
31 31% 41%  
32 8% 10%  
33 0.9% 2%  
34 0.6% 0.7% Last Result
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.8%  
21 3% 97%  
22 13% 95%  
23 10% 82%  
24 35% 72% Median
25 26% 36%  
26 9% 10%  
27 0.9% 1.2%  
28 0.2% 0.3%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.4% 100%  
14 5% 99.6%  
15 5% 94%  
16 31% 89%  
17 18% 58% Median
18 28% 40%  
19 12% 13%  
20 1.0% 1.1%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.4% 100%  
6 4% 99.6%  
7 14% 96%  
8 47% 82% Last Result, Median
9 19% 35%  
10 13% 16%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 2% 100%  
6 3% 98%  
7 48% 95% Median
8 17% 47%  
9 25% 30%  
10 5% 5%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.5% 100% Last Result
5 2% 99.4%  
6 5% 97%  
7 21% 93%  
8 62% 72% Median
9 8% 10%  
10 1.3% 1.5%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 1.3% 98%  
5 37% 96%  
6 16% 60% Median
7 41% 44%  
8 1.3% 3%  
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 73 99.4% 70–75 69–76 68–77 67–78
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 72 98% 69–75 68–75 68–76 67–77
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 67 41% 64–70 64–71 63–71 61–73
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 64 5% 61–67 60–68 60–68 59–69
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 57 0% 54–60 54–60 53–61 52–62
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 55 0% 52–57 52–58 51–59 50–60
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 49 0% 46–51 45–52 45–52 44–53
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 43 0% 41–46 40–46 39–47 38–48

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.4% 99.9%  
68 2% 99.4% Majority
69 5% 97%  
70 10% 92%  
71 13% 83%  
72 15% 70%  
73 20% 55% Median
74 17% 35% Last Result
75 12% 18%  
76 3% 6%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.9% 1.1%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 1.4% 99.7%  
68 6% 98% Majority
69 7% 92%  
70 9% 85% Last Result
71 14% 76%  
72 20% 62%  
73 13% 42% Median
74 18% 29%  
75 7% 11%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.9% 1.2%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.4% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.5%  
63 4% 98.8%  
64 7% 95%  
65 13% 89%  
66 16% 76%  
67 19% 60% Median
68 19% 41% Majority
69 10% 22%  
70 8% 13%  
71 4% 5%  
72 0.9% 1.5%  
73 0.4% 0.6%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.2% 100%  
59 0.7% 99.8%  
60 5% 99.1%  
61 5% 94%  
62 10% 89%  
63 13% 79%  
64 19% 66%  
65 13% 48% Median
66 22% 34% Last Result
67 7% 12%  
68 3% 5% Majority
69 2% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.8% 99.6%  
53 2% 98.7%  
54 11% 96%  
55 7% 86%  
56 21% 78% Median
57 18% 57%  
58 15% 39%  
59 10% 24%  
60 9% 13%  
61 3% 4%  
62 1.0% 1.2%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 1.4% 99.5%  
51 3% 98%  
52 10% 95%  
53 16% 85%  
54 18% 69% Median
55 17% 51%  
56 13% 34%  
57 11% 21% Last Result
58 6% 10%  
59 2% 4%  
60 0.9% 1.1%  
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.9%  
44 1.0% 99.5%  
45 5% 98.5%  
46 8% 94%  
47 12% 86%  
48 21% 73% Median
49 19% 53%  
50 15% 33%  
51 10% 18%  
52 5% 8%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.4%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.4% 100%  
38 0.6% 99.6%  
39 3% 99.0%  
40 4% 96% Last Result
41 9% 93%  
42 19% 84%  
43 29% 65% Median
44 16% 36%  
45 9% 19%  
46 6% 10%  
47 3% 4%  
48 1.3% 2%  
49 0.3% 0.4%  
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations