Opinion Poll by GESOP for CEO, 13 October–7 November 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 24.4% | 22.9–26.0% | 22.5–26.4% | 22.1–26.8% | 21.4–27.6% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 18.7% | 17.4–20.1% | 17.0–20.5% | 16.7–20.9% | 16.0–21.6% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 16.8% | 15.5–18.2% | 15.1–18.6% | 14.8–18.9% | 14.2–19.6% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 10.0% | 9.0–11.2% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.5–11.8% | 8.0–12.3% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.4–8.2% | 6.1–8.5% | 5.9–8.8% | 5.6–9.3% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 7.0% | 6.2–8.0% | 5.9–8.3% | 5.7–8.5% | 5.3–9.0% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 6.4% | 5.6–7.3% | 5.4–7.6% | 5.2–7.8% | 4.8–8.3% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.6–6.2% | 4.4–6.4% | 4.2–6.7% | 3.9–7.1% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.7–3.4% | 1.5–3.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 37 | 34–40 | 34–40 | 33–41 | 32–42 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 30 | 27–32 | 26–32 | 26–33 | 25–34 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 23 | 20–25 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 18–26 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–15 | 11–15 | 10–17 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–11 | 6–11 | 5–11 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–12 | 7–12 |
| Vox | 0 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 5–12 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 3–9 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–4 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 32 | 1.2% | 99.6% | Last Result |
| 33 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 34 | 8% | 97% | |
| 35 | 7% | 89% | |
| 36 | 17% | 83% | |
| 37 | 16% | 65% | Median |
| 38 | 26% | 49% | |
| 39 | 13% | 23% | |
| 40 | 5% | 10% | |
| 41 | 4% | 5% | |
| 42 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 43 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 7% | 98.5% | |
| 27 | 10% | 91% | |
| 28 | 10% | 81% | |
| 29 | 17% | 71% | |
| 30 | 14% | 55% | Median |
| 31 | 25% | 40% | |
| 32 | 12% | 15% | |
| 33 | 2% | 3% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 1.1% | Last Result |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 19 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 20 | 8% | 96% | |
| 21 | 9% | 88% | |
| 22 | 23% | 79% | |
| 23 | 16% | 56% | Median |
| 24 | 26% | 40% | |
| 25 | 12% | 15% | |
| 26 | 2% | 2% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 12 | 23% | 97% | |
| 13 | 38% | 75% | Median |
| 14 | 31% | 37% | |
| 15 | 4% | 6% | |
| 16 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 7 | 17% | 94% | |
| 8 | 51% | 77% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 17% | 26% | |
| 10 | 3% | 9% | |
| 11 | 6% | 6% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 13% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 15% | 86% | |
| 9 | 39% | 71% | Median |
| 10 | 25% | 32% | |
| 11 | 4% | 7% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 98% | |
| 7 | 40% | 96% | |
| 8 | 17% | 56% | Median |
| 9 | 27% | 39% | |
| 10 | 11% | 12% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 5 | 20% | 96% | |
| 6 | 8% | 76% | |
| 7 | 29% | 68% | Median |
| 8 | 36% | 39% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 30% | 32% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 75 | 100% | 72–78 | 71–79 | 71–79 | 69–81 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 70 | 74 | 99.9% | 71–77 | 71–78 | 70–79 | 69–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 73 | 99.7% | 71–77 | 70–78 | 69–78 | 68–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 68 | 60% | 65–71 | 64–72 | 63–72 | 62–74 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 66 | 67 | 42% | 64–70 | 63–71 | 63–71 | 61–73 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 67 | 37% | 64–70 | 63–70 | 62–71 | 61–73 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 53 | 0% | 50–56 | 49–57 | 49–57 | 48–58 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 53 | 0% | 50–56 | 49–56 | 48–57 | 47–58 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 45 | 0% | 42–48 | 42–49 | 41–50 | 39–50 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 45 | 0% | 42–47 | 41–48 | 41–49 | 40–50 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | 0.2% | 100% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 70 | 1.2% | 99.0% | |
| 71 | 5% | 98% | |
| 72 | 6% | 92% | |
| 73 | 17% | 86% | |
| 74 | 18% | 69% | Last Result |
| 75 | 12% | 51% | Median |
| 76 | 10% | 39% | |
| 77 | 13% | 29% | |
| 78 | 9% | 15% | |
| 79 | 5% | 7% | |
| 80 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 99.9% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 70 | 2% | 98% | Last Result |
| 71 | 11% | 95% | |
| 72 | 12% | 84% | |
| 73 | 14% | 72% | |
| 74 | 18% | 58% | Median |
| 75 | 16% | 40% | |
| 76 | 13% | 25% | |
| 77 | 5% | 12% | |
| 78 | 4% | 7% | |
| 79 | 3% | 3% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 81 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 68 | 0.6% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 70 | 4% | 97% | Last Result |
| 71 | 14% | 93% | |
| 72 | 12% | 79% | |
| 73 | 20% | 67% | |
| 74 | 11% | 47% | Median |
| 75 | 16% | 36% | |
| 76 | 11% | 21% | |
| 77 | 4% | 10% | |
| 78 | 5% | 6% | |
| 79 | 0.9% | 1.2% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 64 | 5% | 96% | |
| 65 | 9% | 91% | |
| 66 | 9% | 82% | |
| 67 | 13% | 73% | |
| 68 | 11% | 60% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 22% | 50% | |
| 70 | 11% | 28% | |
| 71 | 8% | 17% | |
| 72 | 6% | 8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 62 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 63 | 4% | 98% | |
| 64 | 5% | 94% | |
| 65 | 12% | 89% | |
| 66 | 16% | 76% | Last Result |
| 67 | 19% | 61% | Median |
| 68 | 9% | 42% | Majority |
| 69 | 18% | 32% | |
| 70 | 8% | 14% | |
| 71 | 5% | 7% | |
| 72 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 63 | 5% | 97% | |
| 64 | 8% | 92% | |
| 65 | 15% | 85% | |
| 66 | 16% | 70% | Last Result |
| 67 | 16% | 53% | Median |
| 68 | 12% | 37% | Majority |
| 69 | 12% | 25% | |
| 70 | 8% | 13% | |
| 71 | 3% | 5% | |
| 72 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 73 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 49 | 6% | 98% | |
| 50 | 6% | 92% | |
| 51 | 11% | 86% | |
| 52 | 12% | 75% | |
| 53 | 22% | 64% | Median |
| 54 | 15% | 42% | |
| 55 | 15% | 27% | |
| 56 | 5% | 11% | |
| 57 | 5% | 6% | |
| 58 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 59 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.4% | |
| 49 | 4% | 97% | |
| 50 | 8% | 93% | |
| 51 | 12% | 85% | |
| 52 | 13% | 73% | |
| 53 | 18% | 60% | Median |
| 54 | 16% | 41% | |
| 55 | 10% | 25% | |
| 56 | 11% | 15% | |
| 57 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 58 | 1.1% | 1.5% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.7% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 41 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 42 | 6% | 95% | |
| 43 | 9% | 89% | |
| 44 | 14% | 80% | |
| 45 | 18% | 67% | Median |
| 46 | 20% | 49% | |
| 47 | 17% | 28% | |
| 48 | 4% | 12% | |
| 49 | 4% | 8% | |
| 50 | 3% | 4% | |
| 51 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 52 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 41 | 6% | 98% | |
| 42 | 8% | 92% | |
| 43 | 9% | 84% | |
| 44 | 13% | 75% | |
| 45 | 21% | 62% | Median |
| 46 | 15% | 41% | |
| 47 | 17% | 26% | |
| 48 | 5% | 10% | |
| 49 | 4% | 5% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 52 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): CEO
- Fieldwork period: 13 October–7 November 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1300
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.68%