Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 30 November 2020

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 23.2% 21.4–25.2% 20.9–25.7% 20.4–26.2% 19.6–27.2%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 20.2% 18.5–22.1% 18.0–22.7% 17.6–23.2% 16.8–24.1%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 18.2% 16.5–20.0% 16.0–20.5% 15.7–21.0% 14.9–21.9%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 9.8% 8.6–11.3% 8.2–11.7% 8.0–12.1% 7.4–12.8%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.7% 6.6–9.1% 6.3–9.4% 6.1–9.8% 5.6–10.5%
Partit Popular 4.2% 6.7% 5.7–8.0% 5.5–8.4% 5.2–8.7% 4.8–9.3%
Vox 0.0% 5.3% 4.4–6.4% 4.1–6.8% 3.9–7.0% 3.6–7.6%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 5.2% 4.3–6.3% 4.0–6.6% 3.8–6.9% 3.5–7.5%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–2.9% 0.8–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 35 32–38 31–39 31–40 29–42
Junts per Catalunya 34 32 29–35 28–37 28–37 26–38
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 24 22–26 22–28 21–28 19–30
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 13 12–14 11–16 10–16 9–18
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 9 7–11 7–11 6–12 5–13
Partit Popular 4 9 7–10 7–11 6–12 5–12
Vox 0 7 5–8 4–8 3–9 3–10
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 7 4–8 4–8 4–9 3–9
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.5% 99.8%  
30 2% 99.3%  
31 5% 98%  
32 9% 92% Last Result
33 8% 83%  
34 13% 75%  
35 25% 62% Median
36 11% 37%  
37 11% 26%  
38 10% 15%  
39 2% 5%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.8% 1.4%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.4% 99.8%  
27 0.7% 98%  
28 4% 98%  
29 4% 94%  
30 5% 90%  
31 23% 85%  
32 27% 62% Median
33 10% 35%  
34 7% 24% Last Result
35 9% 18%  
36 3% 9%  
37 5% 6%  
38 0.8% 1.2%  
39 0.3% 0.4%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0.3% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.7%  
20 2% 99.4%  
21 2% 98%  
22 15% 96%  
23 8% 81%  
24 26% 73% Median
25 21% 47%  
26 17% 26%  
27 3% 9%  
28 5% 6%  
29 0.9% 2%  
30 0.5% 0.8%  
31 0.3% 0.3%  
32 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 2% 99.6%  
10 2% 98%  
11 2% 96%  
12 19% 94%  
13 50% 75% Median
14 17% 26%  
15 4% 9%  
16 4% 6%  
17 0.8% 1.4%  
18 0.6% 0.6%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.8% 100%  
6 2% 99.2%  
7 9% 97%  
8 31% 88% Last Result
9 25% 57% Median
10 19% 32%  
11 10% 13%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.3% 0.6%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 2% 100%  
6 1.5% 98%  
7 24% 97%  
8 19% 73%  
9 27% 54% Median
10 21% 28%  
11 2% 6%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 3% 99.9%  
4 3% 97%  
5 28% 93%  
6 11% 65%  
7 43% 55% Median
8 7% 12%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.7% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 2% 99.8%  
4 14% 98% Last Result
5 14% 85%  
6 10% 70%  
7 22% 60% Median
8 35% 39%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.2% 0.4%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.2% 0.3%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 76 99.9% 73–80 72–81 71–81 69–83
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 74 99.2% 70–77 70–78 69–79 67–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 74 99.2% 71–77 70–78 69–79 67–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 68 56% 65–71 64–73 63–74 62–75
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 67 42% 64–71 63–72 62–73 60–74
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 67 43% 64–71 63–72 62–73 60–74
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 55 0% 52–58 51–59 50–60 48–62
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 52 0% 49–55 48–56 47–58 45–59
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 46 0% 43–49 42–50 41–51 40–52
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 44 0% 41–47 40–48 39–49 37–51

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9% Majority
69 0.6% 99.7%  
70 0.9% 99.2%  
71 2% 98%  
72 3% 96%  
73 10% 93%  
74 14% 83% Last Result
75 11% 69%  
76 10% 58% Median
77 21% 48%  
78 11% 27%  
79 6% 16%  
80 5% 10%  
81 3% 5%  
82 1.4% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.7%  
68 1.3% 99.2% Majority
69 2% 98%  
70 5% 95% Last Result
71 13% 90%  
72 7% 77%  
73 16% 70%  
74 16% 54% Median
75 15% 38%  
76 8% 23%  
77 6% 14%  
78 5% 8%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.9% 2%  
81 0.7% 0.9%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.5% 99.7%  
68 1.3% 99.2% Majority
69 2% 98%  
70 5% 96% Last Result
71 13% 90%  
72 7% 77%  
73 16% 70%  
74 16% 55% Median
75 15% 39%  
76 9% 24%  
77 6% 15%  
78 5% 9%  
79 2% 4%  
80 1.0% 2%  
81 0.7% 0.9%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 100%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.7% 99.5%  
63 1.4% 98.9%  
64 3% 97%  
65 7% 94%  
66 8% 87%  
67 23% 79%  
68 11% 56% Median, Majority
69 12% 45%  
70 16% 33%  
71 7% 17%  
72 4% 9%  
73 3% 6%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.6% 1.0%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.9%  
61 1.1% 99.3%  
62 1.5% 98%  
63 6% 97%  
64 6% 91%  
65 14% 85%  
66 13% 71% Last Result
67 16% 58% Median
68 9% 42% Majority
69 17% 34%  
70 4% 16%  
71 3% 12%  
72 5% 8%  
73 3% 4%  
74 0.5% 0.8%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.9%  
61 1.1% 99.4%  
62 1.2% 98%  
63 6% 97%  
64 5% 91%  
65 13% 86%  
66 13% 72% Last Result
67 17% 60% Median
68 9% 43% Majority
69 17% 34%  
70 5% 17%  
71 4% 12%  
72 5% 8%  
73 3% 4%  
74 0.5% 0.9%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.2% 100%  
48 0.5% 99.7%  
49 2% 99.2%  
50 1.4% 98%  
51 4% 96%  
52 10% 92%  
53 12% 82%  
54 14% 70%  
55 15% 56% Median
56 13% 42%  
57 11% 29%  
58 10% 18%  
59 6% 8%  
60 1.4% 3%  
61 0.6% 1.1%  
62 0.2% 0.5%  
63 0.3% 0.3%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.5% 99.8%  
46 1.0% 99.3%  
47 2% 98%  
48 3% 97%  
49 7% 93%  
50 14% 86%  
51 11% 73%  
52 12% 61%  
53 14% 50% Median
54 16% 36%  
55 10% 20%  
56 5% 10%  
57 2% 5% Last Result
58 2% 3%  
59 0.7% 1.0%  
60 0.2% 0.3%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 1.2% 99.5%  
41 2% 98%  
42 2% 96%  
43 13% 95%  
44 14% 82%  
45 7% 68%  
46 15% 62% Median
47 20% 47%  
48 8% 26%  
49 10% 18%  
50 6% 8%  
51 1.2% 3%  
52 0.9% 1.4%  
53 0.3% 0.4%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 1.2% 99.4%  
39 2% 98%  
40 4% 96% Last Result
41 11% 92%  
42 12% 81%  
43 11% 70%  
44 12% 58% Median
45 21% 46%  
46 15% 25%  
47 4% 10%  
48 2% 6%  
49 2% 4%  
50 1.2% 2%  
51 0.5% 0.7%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations