Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 23–29 December 2020
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 21.7% | 20.2–23.3% | 19.8–23.7% | 19.4–24.1% | 18.7–24.9% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 20.3% | 18.9–21.9% | 18.5–22.3% | 18.2–22.7% | 17.5–23.5% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 16.7% | 15.3–18.1% | 15.0–18.5% | 14.7–18.9% | 14.1–19.6% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 13.2% | 12.0–14.5% | 11.6–14.9% | 11.4–15.2% | 10.8–15.9% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.8–8.7% | 6.5–9.1% | 6.3–9.3% | 5.9–9.9% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.3–7.6% | 5.1–7.9% | 4.7–8.4% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.3–7.1% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.9–7.6% | 4.5–8.1% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.2–5.8% | 4.0–6.1% | 3.8–6.3% | 3.5–6.8% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.2% | 1.1–2.3% | 1.0–2.5% | 0.9–2.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 33 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–37 | 28–38 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 32 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–37 | 26–37 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 23 | 20–25 | 19–25 | 18–25 | 17–26 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 18 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 14–20 | 14–22 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–12 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 5–10 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 6 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 3–9 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98% | |
| 30 | 8% | 93% | |
| 31 | 17% | 85% | |
| 32 | 12% | 68% | Last Result |
| 33 | 25% | 56% | Median |
| 34 | 11% | 31% | |
| 35 | 13% | 20% | |
| 36 | 4% | 6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 99.1% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98% | |
| 30 | 5% | 93% | |
| 31 | 32% | 88% | |
| 32 | 28% | 57% | Median |
| 33 | 10% | 28% | |
| 34 | 6% | 19% | Last Result |
| 35 | 6% | 12% | |
| 36 | 4% | 6% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 19 | 3% | 97% | |
| 20 | 17% | 94% | |
| 21 | 8% | 77% | |
| 22 | 15% | 70% | |
| 23 | 21% | 54% | Median |
| 24 | 19% | 33% | |
| 25 | 12% | 14% | |
| 26 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 2% | 96% | |
| 16 | 9% | 94% | |
| 17 | 7% | 85% | |
| 18 | 40% | 77% | Median |
| 19 | 30% | 38% | |
| 20 | 6% | 7% | |
| 21 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 7 | 7% | 98% | |
| 8 | 41% | 92% | Last Result |
| 9 | 29% | 51% | Median |
| 10 | 11% | 22% | |
| 11 | 9% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 5% | 98% | |
| 7 | 51% | 93% | Median |
| 8 | 12% | 42% | |
| 9 | 24% | 30% | |
| 10 | 5% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 9% | 96% | |
| 7 | 49% | 87% | Median |
| 8 | 22% | 38% | |
| 9 | 12% | 16% | |
| 10 | 3% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 22% | 98% | Last Result |
| 5 | 11% | 76% | |
| 6 | 18% | 65% | Median |
| 7 | 21% | 47% | |
| 8 | 25% | 25% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 73 | 99.4% | 70–76 | 69–77 | 69–78 | 67–80 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 71 | 89% | 67–74 | 67–75 | 67–75 | 65–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 70 | 71 | 89% | 67–74 | 67–75 | 67–75 | 65–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 65 | 12% | 61–68 | 61–69 | 60–69 | 59–71 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 66 | 65 | 12% | 61–68 | 61–69 | 60–69 | 59–71 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 64 | 6% | 61–67 | 60–68 | 59–68 | 58–70 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 57 | 0% | 54–60 | 53–61 | 52–61 | 51–62 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 56 | 0% | 53–59 | 52–60 | 51–60 | 50–61 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 48 | 0% | 45–51 | 44–52 | 44–53 | 42–53 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 41 | 0% | 39–44 | 38–45 | 37–45 | 36–47 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 99.4% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 98% | |
| 70 | 4% | 93% | |
| 71 | 12% | 89% | |
| 72 | 12% | 78% | |
| 73 | 18% | 65% | |
| 74 | 12% | 47% | Last Result, Median |
| 75 | 19% | 35% | |
| 76 | 9% | 17% | |
| 77 | 4% | 7% | |
| 78 | 3% | 4% | |
| 79 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 80 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 9% | 98% | |
| 68 | 9% | 89% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 80% | |
| 70 | 15% | 69% | Last Result |
| 71 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 72 | 12% | 38% | |
| 73 | 13% | 26% | |
| 74 | 7% | 13% | |
| 75 | 4% | 6% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 66 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 67 | 9% | 98% | |
| 68 | 9% | 89% | Majority |
| 69 | 11% | 80% | |
| 70 | 15% | 69% | Last Result |
| 71 | 16% | 54% | Median |
| 72 | 12% | 38% | |
| 73 | 13% | 26% | |
| 74 | 7% | 13% | |
| 75 | 4% | 6% | |
| 76 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 61 | 12% | 97% | |
| 62 | 5% | 85% | |
| 63 | 10% | 81% | |
| 64 | 17% | 70% | |
| 65 | 15% | 53% | Median |
| 66 | 19% | 38% | Last Result |
| 67 | 7% | 19% | |
| 68 | 7% | 12% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 5% | |
| 70 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 61 | 12% | 97% | |
| 62 | 5% | 85% | |
| 63 | 10% | 81% | |
| 64 | 17% | 70% | |
| 65 | 15% | 53% | Median |
| 66 | 19% | 38% | Last Result |
| 67 | 7% | 19% | |
| 68 | 7% | 12% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 5% | |
| 70 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 59 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 60 | 4% | 95% | |
| 61 | 10% | 91% | |
| 62 | 12% | 82% | |
| 63 | 18% | 70% | |
| 64 | 9% | 52% | |
| 65 | 21% | 43% | Median |
| 66 | 8% | 21% | |
| 67 | 7% | 13% | |
| 68 | 4% | 6% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 52 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 53 | 5% | 97% | |
| 54 | 11% | 91% | |
| 55 | 10% | 80% | |
| 56 | 13% | 71% | |
| 57 | 19% | 57% | Median |
| 58 | 10% | 38% | |
| 59 | 12% | 28% | |
| 60 | 10% | 16% | |
| 61 | 5% | 6% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 1.1% | |
| 63 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 52 | 5% | 96% | |
| 53 | 10% | 91% | |
| 54 | 17% | 81% | |
| 55 | 13% | 64% | Median |
| 56 | 21% | 51% | |
| 57 | 10% | 30% | Last Result |
| 58 | 9% | 20% | |
| 59 | 5% | 11% | |
| 60 | 6% | 7% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 1.3% | 99.4% | |
| 44 | 4% | 98% | |
| 45 | 10% | 95% | |
| 46 | 9% | 84% | |
| 47 | 13% | 75% | |
| 48 | 19% | 62% | Median |
| 49 | 15% | 42% | |
| 50 | 11% | 27% | |
| 51 | 7% | 16% | |
| 52 | 6% | 9% | |
| 53 | 3% | 3% | |
| 54 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 36 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 37 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 38 | 4% | 96% | |
| 39 | 12% | 91% | |
| 40 | 14% | 80% | Last Result |
| 41 | 20% | 65% | |
| 42 | 13% | 45% | Median |
| 43 | 15% | 32% | |
| 44 | 11% | 17% | |
| 45 | 4% | 6% | |
| 46 | 2% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SocioMétrica
- Commissioner(s): El Español
- Fieldwork period: 23–29 December 2020
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.60%