Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 2–5 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 20.1% | 18.5–21.9% | 18.0–22.4% | 17.6–22.9% | 16.9–23.7% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.9% | 18.3–21.7% | 17.8–22.2% | 17.4–22.6% | 16.6–23.5% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 19.3% | 17.7–21.1% | 17.3–21.6% | 16.9–22.1% | 16.1–22.9% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 12.0% | 10.7–13.5% | 10.3–13.9% | 10.0–14.3% | 9.4–15.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.0–8.2% | 5.7–8.6% | 5.5–8.9% | 5.1–9.5% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.4–7.5% | 5.1–7.8% | 4.9–8.1% | 4.5–8.7% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.2–7.3% | 4.9–7.6% | 4.7–7.9% | 4.3–8.5% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.3% | 4.1–6.6% | 3.9–6.9% | 3.6–7.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 30 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 27–35 | 25–36 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 32 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 28–37 | 26–38 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 26 | 24–29 | 24–30 | 23–30 | 22–31 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 16 | 14–18 | 13–19 | 13–19 | 13–20 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 7–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 5–11 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–12 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 3–10 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 99.0% | |
| 27 | 4% | 98% | |
| 28 | 14% | 94% | |
| 29 | 14% | 80% | |
| 30 | 21% | 65% | Median |
| 31 | 17% | 45% | |
| 32 | 10% | 27% | Last Result |
| 33 | 9% | 18% | |
| 34 | 5% | 9% | |
| 35 | 3% | 4% | |
| 36 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 1.2% | 98.9% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98% | |
| 29 | 5% | 96% | |
| 30 | 8% | 91% | |
| 31 | 28% | 83% | |
| 32 | 20% | 55% | Median |
| 33 | 14% | 35% | |
| 34 | 9% | 21% | Last Result |
| 35 | 4% | 12% | |
| 36 | 5% | 8% | |
| 37 | 3% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 0.7% | 99.7% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 24 | 10% | 97% | |
| 25 | 24% | 87% | |
| 26 | 24% | 62% | Median |
| 27 | 18% | 38% | |
| 28 | 7% | 21% | |
| 29 | 5% | 13% | |
| 30 | 6% | 8% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 14% | 93% | |
| 15 | 9% | 79% | |
| 16 | 26% | 70% | Median |
| 17 | 15% | 44% | |
| 18 | 19% | 29% | |
| 19 | 9% | 10% | |
| 20 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 4% | 95% | |
| 7 | 22% | 90% | |
| 8 | 48% | 68% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 8% | 20% | |
| 10 | 7% | 12% | |
| 11 | 4% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 5% | 97% | |
| 7 | 47% | 92% | Median |
| 8 | 8% | 45% | |
| 9 | 28% | 37% | |
| 10 | 7% | 10% | |
| 11 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 12 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 5 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 10% | 96% | |
| 7 | 49% | 85% | Median |
| 8 | 7% | 36% | |
| 9 | 22% | 29% | |
| 10 | 5% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 12% | 99.2% | Last Result |
| 5 | 8% | 87% | |
| 6 | 10% | 79% | |
| 7 | 31% | 69% | Median |
| 8 | 34% | 38% | |
| 9 | 3% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 70 | 84% | 67–74 | 66–75 | 65–76 | 64–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 69 | 74% | 66–72 | 65–73 | 64–74 | 62–76 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 65 | 14% | 61–68 | 61–69 | 60–70 | 58–72 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 63 | 2% | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–67 | 56–69 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 58 | 0% | 55–61 | 54–62 | 53–63 | 52–65 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular | 57 | 58 | 0% | 55–61 | 54–62 | 53–63 | 51–65 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 50 | 0% | 47–53 | 46–54 | 45–55 | 44–57 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 38 | 0% | 35–42 | 35–42 | 34–43 | 32–44 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 66 | 4% | 96% | |
| 67 | 8% | 92% | |
| 68 | 7% | 84% | Majority |
| 69 | 14% | 77% | |
| 70 | 15% | 63% | Median |
| 71 | 17% | 48% | |
| 72 | 13% | 31% | |
| 73 | 7% | 18% | |
| 74 | 4% | 11% | Last Result |
| 75 | 3% | 7% | |
| 76 | 3% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 65 | 4% | 97% | |
| 66 | 7% | 93% | |
| 67 | 13% | 87% | |
| 68 | 14% | 74% | Majority |
| 69 | 12% | 59% | Median |
| 70 | 18% | 47% | Last Result |
| 71 | 11% | 29% | |
| 72 | 10% | 18% | |
| 73 | 4% | 8% | |
| 74 | 3% | 5% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 60 | 3% | 98% | |
| 61 | 8% | 95% | |
| 62 | 9% | 87% | |
| 63 | 15% | 79% | |
| 64 | 13% | 64% | Median |
| 65 | 16% | 51% | |
| 66 | 12% | 35% | |
| 67 | 9% | 23% | |
| 68 | 8% | 14% | Majority |
| 69 | 3% | 6% | |
| 70 | 2% | 3% | |
| 71 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 72 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 58 | 4% | 97% | |
| 59 | 7% | 94% | |
| 60 | 9% | 86% | |
| 61 | 12% | 77% | |
| 62 | 14% | 65% | Median |
| 63 | 20% | 51% | |
| 64 | 13% | 31% | |
| 65 | 6% | 18% | |
| 66 | 5% | 12% | Last Result |
| 67 | 5% | 7% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.8% | 1.2% | |
| 70 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 53 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 54 | 3% | 96% | |
| 55 | 7% | 93% | |
| 56 | 15% | 86% | |
| 57 | 14% | 71% | Median |
| 58 | 18% | 57% | |
| 59 | 12% | 40% | |
| 60 | 12% | 28% | |
| 61 | 9% | 16% | |
| 62 | 3% | 7% | |
| 63 | 2% | 4% | |
| 64 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 52 | 0.7% | 99.2% | |
| 53 | 3% | 98% | |
| 54 | 5% | 96% | |
| 55 | 9% | 91% | |
| 56 | 9% | 82% | Median |
| 57 | 17% | 73% | Last Result |
| 58 | 16% | 56% | |
| 59 | 11% | 40% | |
| 60 | 13% | 29% | |
| 61 | 8% | 15% | |
| 62 | 4% | 8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 4% | |
| 64 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 44 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 46 | 4% | 97% | |
| 47 | 6% | 93% | |
| 48 | 14% | 87% | |
| 49 | 15% | 73% | Median |
| 50 | 17% | 59% | |
| 51 | 13% | 41% | |
| 52 | 11% | 29% | |
| 53 | 10% | 18% | |
| 54 | 4% | 7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 33 | 1.5% | 99.5% | |
| 34 | 2% | 98% | |
| 35 | 6% | 96% | |
| 36 | 15% | 90% | |
| 37 | 12% | 74% | |
| 38 | 18% | 62% | Median |
| 39 | 16% | 44% | |
| 40 | 9% | 29% | Last Result |
| 41 | 9% | 20% | |
| 42 | 6% | 10% | |
| 43 | 3% | 4% | |
| 44 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SocioMétrica
- Commissioner(s): El Español
- Fieldwork period: 2–5 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 900
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.53%