Opinion Poll by GESOP for El Periódico, 4–7 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 24.1% | 22.2–26.1% | 21.7–26.7% | 21.3–27.2% | 20.4–28.2% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 20.8% | 19.1–22.8% | 18.6–23.3% | 18.2–23.8% | 17.4–24.8% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.0% | 17.3–20.9% | 16.8–21.4% | 16.4–21.8% | 15.6–22.8% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 9.7% | 8.5–11.2% | 8.2–11.6% | 7.9–12.0% | 7.3–12.7% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.4–7.7% | 4.0–8.3% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.9–7.1% | 4.7–7.4% | 4.4–7.7% | 4.0–8.3% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.5–6.5% | 4.2–6.9% | 4.0–7.2% | 3.6–7.8% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.1–6.1% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.7–6.7% | 3.3–7.3% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 33 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 30–38 | 27–40 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 33 | 29–35 | 28–35 | 28–36 | 26–37 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 30 | 27–33 | 26–34 | 26–35 | 25–37 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 13 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 10–16 | 8–18 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 7 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–10 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 5–10 | 3–11 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 4–10 | 4–10 |
| Vox | 0 | 6 | 4–7 | 3–8 | 3–9 | 3–9 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 1.1% | 98.8% | |
| 30 | 4% | 98% | |
| 31 | 12% | 93% | |
| 32 | 23% | 81% | |
| 33 | 19% | 58% | Median |
| 34 | 16% | 39% | |
| 35 | 8% | 23% | |
| 36 | 7% | 15% | |
| 37 | 4% | 8% | |
| 38 | 2% | 4% | |
| 39 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 40 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 1.5% | 99.2% | |
| 28 | 5% | 98% | |
| 29 | 6% | 92% | |
| 30 | 12% | 87% | |
| 31 | 10% | 75% | |
| 32 | 14% | 65% | Last Result |
| 33 | 11% | 51% | Median |
| 34 | 21% | 40% | |
| 35 | 15% | 19% | |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | |
| 37 | 2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 6% | 98% | |
| 27 | 9% | 92% | |
| 28 | 3% | 83% | |
| 29 | 5% | 80% | |
| 30 | 26% | 75% | Median |
| 31 | 26% | 49% | |
| 32 | 9% | 23% | |
| 33 | 7% | 14% | |
| 34 | 4% | 7% | Last Result |
| 35 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 2% | 98% | |
| 11 | 3% | 96% | |
| 12 | 26% | 93% | |
| 13 | 38% | 67% | Median |
| 14 | 15% | 29% | |
| 15 | 8% | 14% | |
| 16 | 4% | 6% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 33% | 94% | |
| 6 | 10% | 61% | |
| 7 | 30% | 51% | Median |
| 8 | 19% | 21% | Last Result |
| 9 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 99.3% | Last Result |
| 5 | 9% | 98.6% | |
| 6 | 15% | 89% | |
| 7 | 44% | 74% | Median |
| 8 | 8% | 31% | |
| 9 | 19% | 22% | |
| 10 | 3% | 4% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 9% | 99.7% | Last Result |
| 5 | 6% | 90% | |
| 6 | 13% | 84% | |
| 7 | 36% | 71% | Median |
| 8 | 26% | 34% | |
| 9 | 5% | 8% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 99.6% | |
| 4 | 6% | 91% | |
| 5 | 35% | 86% | |
| 6 | 14% | 51% | Median |
| 7 | 29% | 36% | |
| 8 | 4% | 7% | |
| 9 | 3% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 72 | 90% | 68–75 | 67–76 | 66–76 | 65–78 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 69 | 79% | 66–73 | 65–74 | 63–74 | 62–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 70 | 69 | 79% | 66–73 | 65–74 | 63–74 | 62–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 69 | 71% | 65–72 | 64–73 | 63–74 | 61–76 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 63 | 2% | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–67 | 55–69 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 66 | 63 | 2% | 59–66 | 58–67 | 57–67 | 55–69 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 60 | 0.3% | 57–63 | 56–64 | 55–65 | 53–67 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 59 | 0.2% | 56–62 | 55–64 | 54–65 | 53–67 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 53 | 0% | 50–57 | 49–58 | 49–59 | 47–61 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 39 | 0% | 35–42 | 34–42 | 33–43 | 31–44 |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 66 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 67 | 6% | 96% | |
| 68 | 5% | 90% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 85% | |
| 70 | 8% | 79% | |
| 71 | 11% | 71% | |
| 72 | 12% | 60% | |
| 73 | 20% | 49% | Median |
| 74 | 13% | 29% | |
| 75 | 10% | 16% | |
| 76 | 4% | 6% | |
| 77 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 65 | 3% | 96% | |
| 66 | 5% | 93% | |
| 67 | 8% | 88% | |
| 68 | 22% | 79% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 58% | |
| 70 | 8% | 49% | Last Result, Median |
| 71 | 13% | 41% | |
| 72 | 15% | 28% | |
| 73 | 7% | 13% | |
| 74 | 4% | 6% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 64 | 1.4% | 97% | |
| 65 | 3% | 96% | |
| 66 | 5% | 93% | |
| 67 | 8% | 88% | |
| 68 | 22% | 79% | Majority |
| 69 | 9% | 58% | |
| 70 | 8% | 49% | Last Result, Median |
| 71 | 13% | 41% | |
| 72 | 15% | 28% | |
| 73 | 7% | 13% | |
| 74 | 4% | 6% | |
| 75 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 76 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 77 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 61 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.2% | |
| 63 | 1.3% | 98% | |
| 64 | 2% | 97% | |
| 65 | 6% | 95% | |
| 66 | 7% | 89% | |
| 67 | 12% | 82% | |
| 68 | 13% | 71% | Majority |
| 69 | 14% | 58% | |
| 70 | 16% | 44% | Median |
| 71 | 13% | 28% | |
| 72 | 7% | 16% | |
| 73 | 5% | 9% | |
| 74 | 3% | 4% | Last Result |
| 75 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 76 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 58 | 4% | 97% | |
| 59 | 7% | 93% | |
| 60 | 9% | 86% | |
| 61 | 13% | 77% | |
| 62 | 8% | 64% | |
| 63 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 64 | 15% | 43% | |
| 65 | 15% | 27% | |
| 66 | 8% | 13% | Last Result |
| 67 | 3% | 5% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 56 | 0.4% | 99.0% | |
| 57 | 2% | 98.5% | |
| 58 | 4% | 97% | |
| 59 | 7% | 93% | |
| 60 | 9% | 86% | |
| 61 | 13% | 77% | |
| 62 | 8% | 64% | |
| 63 | 13% | 56% | Median |
| 64 | 15% | 43% | |
| 65 | 15% | 27% | |
| 66 | 8% | 13% | Last Result |
| 67 | 3% | 5% | |
| 68 | 1.3% | 2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 70 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 53 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 0.7% | 99.1% | |
| 55 | 3% | 98% | |
| 56 | 5% | 96% | |
| 57 | 11% | 91% | |
| 58 | 16% | 79% | |
| 59 | 7% | 63% | |
| 60 | 21% | 57% | Median |
| 61 | 10% | 36% | |
| 62 | 13% | 25% | |
| 63 | 4% | 13% | |
| 64 | 4% | 8% | |
| 65 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 66 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 67 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 68 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 54 | 3% | 98.6% | |
| 55 | 4% | 96% | |
| 56 | 5% | 92% | |
| 57 | 11% | 87% | Last Result |
| 58 | 15% | 76% | |
| 59 | 17% | 60% | Median |
| 60 | 16% | 43% | |
| 61 | 11% | 27% | |
| 62 | 7% | 16% | |
| 63 | 3% | 9% | |
| 64 | 2% | 7% | |
| 65 | 3% | 4% | |
| 66 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 67 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 68 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 70 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 48 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 49 | 3% | 98% | |
| 50 | 5% | 95% | |
| 51 | 9% | 90% | |
| 52 | 15% | 81% | |
| 53 | 22% | 66% | Median |
| 54 | 12% | 44% | |
| 55 | 15% | 32% | |
| 56 | 6% | 17% | |
| 57 | 4% | 11% | Last Result |
| 58 | 3% | 7% | |
| 59 | 2% | 4% | |
| 60 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 99.4% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 34 | 3% | 97% | |
| 35 | 8% | 95% | |
| 36 | 11% | 87% | |
| 37 | 10% | 76% | |
| 38 | 10% | 66% | |
| 39 | 13% | 57% | |
| 40 | 15% | 44% | Last Result, Median |
| 41 | 18% | 29% | |
| 42 | 8% | 11% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: GESOP
- Commissioner(s): El Periódico
- Fieldwork period: 4–7 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 801
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.51%