Opinion Poll by GAD3 for La Vanguardia, 4–8 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 24.1% 21.9–26.5% 21.3–27.2% 20.8–27.8% 19.8–29.0%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 20.5% 18.4–22.8% 17.9–23.4% 17.4–24.0% 16.4–25.1%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 18.6% 16.6–20.8% 16.1–21.4% 15.6–22.0% 14.7–23.1%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 9.7% 8.3–11.5% 7.9–12.0% 7.6–12.4% 6.9–13.3%
Partit Popular 4.2% 6.2% 5.1–7.7% 4.8–8.2% 4.5–8.5% 4.1–9.3%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 6.1% 5.0–7.5% 4.7–8.0% 4.4–8.3% 3.9–9.1%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 4.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–6.0% 3.0–6.3% 2.6–7.0%
Vox 0.0% 4.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.0–5.8% 2.8–6.1% 2.4–6.8%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 3.0% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.4% 1.8–4.7% 1.6–5.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 36 34–42 33–43 33–43 30–44
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 28 25–32 25–33 24–34 23–36
Junts per Catalunya 34 31 26–33 25–35 25–35 23–37
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 13 12–15 10–17 9–18 8–19
Partit Popular 4 8 6–10 5–11 5–12 4–12
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 7 5–9 4–9 4–10 4–11
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 5 3–8 2–8 0–8 0–9
Vox 0 4 3–7 3–7 2–7 0–9
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 1 0–5 0–6 0–6 0–7

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.3% 99.9%  
30 0.4% 99.6%  
31 0.3% 99.2%  
32 1.1% 98.8% Last Result
33 5% 98%  
34 9% 93%  
35 19% 84%  
36 19% 65% Median
37 14% 46%  
38 4% 32%  
39 3% 28%  
40 10% 26%  
41 5% 16%  
42 4% 11%  
43 6% 8%  
44 2% 2%  
45 0.2% 0.3%  
46 0% 0.1%  
47 0% 0.1%  
48 0% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.7% 99.5%  
24 3% 98.8%  
25 8% 96%  
26 17% 88%  
27 11% 71%  
28 12% 59% Median
29 14% 47%  
30 12% 33%  
31 10% 22%  
32 7% 12%  
33 2% 5%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.7% 1.3%  
36 0.4% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 1.4% 99.4%  
25 3% 98%  
26 8% 95%  
27 5% 87%  
28 5% 82%  
29 13% 77%  
30 11% 64%  
31 20% 52% Median
32 15% 32%  
33 9% 17%  
34 3% 8% Last Result
35 3% 6%  
36 1.0% 2%  
37 1.0% 1.3%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 1.0% 100%  
9 4% 99.0%  
10 1.3% 95%  
11 4% 94%  
12 24% 90%  
13 35% 66% Median
14 19% 31%  
15 3% 12%  
16 4% 9%  
17 2% 5%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0.5% 0.5%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.4% 100%  
4 0.6% 99.6% Last Result
5 5% 99.1%  
6 7% 94%  
7 33% 87%  
8 13% 54% Median
9 24% 41%  
10 10% 17%  
11 4% 7%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 7% 99.7%  
5 22% 93%  
6 7% 71%  
7 32% 64% Median
8 21% 32% Last Result
9 7% 11%  
10 3% 4%  
11 1.3% 1.5%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 3% 97%  
3 11% 95%  
4 34% 84% Last Result
5 12% 50% Median
6 6% 39%  
7 21% 33%  
8 11% 12%  
9 1.2% 1.5%  
10 0.2% 0.3%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 3% 98%  
3 37% 95%  
4 8% 58% Median
5 23% 50%  
6 10% 27%  
7 16% 17%  
8 0.7% 1.4%  
9 0.5% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100% Last Result
1 43% 76% Median
2 0.1% 33%  
3 6% 33%  
4 7% 27%  
5 13% 20%  
6 6% 7%  
7 0.7% 1.1%  
8 0.3% 0.4%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 74 97% 70–79 68–80 67–81 66–83
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 74 97% 69–78 68–80 67–81 65–84
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 73 90% 68–77 66–78 66–79 64–83
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 72 92% 68–77 66–78 66–79 64–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 69 67% 65–74 63–75 62–76 61–78
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 68 50% 63–72 61–73 61–74 58–76
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 65 56 0.1% 52–61 51–62 50–63 48–64
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 54 0% 50–58 49–60 48–61 44–63
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 49 0% 45–53 45–55 44–56 41–58
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 43 0% 40–49 39–50 38–51 36–52

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.6%  
67 2% 99.1%  
68 2% 97% Majority
69 3% 95%  
70 4% 92% Last Result
71 9% 88%  
72 9% 79%  
73 5% 70% Median
74 20% 65%  
75 8% 45%  
76 12% 37%  
77 6% 25%  
78 7% 19%  
79 6% 12%  
80 3% 6%  
81 1.3% 3%  
82 0.4% 2%  
83 0.9% 1.2%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.7% 99.8%  
66 0.9% 99.0%  
67 2% 98%  
68 5% 97% Majority
69 5% 91%  
70 6% 86%  
71 4% 80%  
72 9% 76%  
73 8% 67%  
74 10% 60% Last Result, Median
75 15% 49%  
76 10% 34%  
77 10% 25%  
78 5% 15%  
79 2% 10%  
80 3% 8%  
81 3% 5%  
82 0.7% 2%  
83 0.4% 1.0%  
84 0.5% 0.6%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 1.1% 99.6%  
65 1.0% 98.5%  
66 3% 98%  
67 4% 95%  
68 4% 90% Majority
69 8% 86%  
70 6% 78% Last Result
71 12% 71%  
72 8% 59% Median
73 16% 51%  
74 8% 35%  
75 5% 26%  
76 9% 21%  
77 5% 12%  
78 5% 8%  
79 1.0% 3%  
80 0.5% 2%  
81 0.6% 1.3%  
82 0.1% 0.7%  
83 0.5% 0.6%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.6%  
65 1.0% 99.2%  
66 3% 98%  
67 3% 95%  
68 3% 92% Majority
69 10% 88%  
70 8% 78%  
71 13% 70% Median
72 13% 57%  
73 12% 44%  
74 11% 32%  
75 4% 22%  
76 5% 17%  
77 4% 13%  
78 5% 9%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.8% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.9%  
82 0.2% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 0.8% 99.5%  
62 1.3% 98.8%  
63 3% 97%  
64 2% 94%  
65 6% 92%  
66 6% 86% Last Result
67 12% 79%  
68 8% 67% Median, Majority
69 12% 59%  
70 10% 47%  
71 10% 37%  
72 9% 27%  
73 7% 18%  
74 6% 11%  
75 1.4% 5%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.9% 2%  
78 0.5% 0.9%  
79 0.2% 0.4%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.4% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.5%  
60 1.5% 99.1%  
61 3% 98%  
62 5% 95%  
63 6% 90%  
64 6% 84%  
65 9% 78%  
66 8% 68% Last Result
67 10% 60% Median
68 16% 50% Majority
69 7% 34%  
70 9% 26%  
71 5% 17%  
72 3% 12%  
73 5% 8%  
74 1.1% 3%  
75 1.1% 2%  
76 0.9% 1.2%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.6%  
49 1.3% 99.2%  
50 2% 98%  
51 3% 96%  
52 7% 93%  
53 6% 86%  
54 7% 79%  
55 10% 72%  
56 15% 62% Median
57 10% 48%  
58 20% 38%  
59 5% 18%  
60 3% 13%  
61 5% 10%  
62 3% 6%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.6% 1.1%  
65 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.5% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.5%  
46 0.6% 99.3%  
47 0.9% 98.7%  
48 2% 98%  
49 5% 95%  
50 8% 90%  
51 5% 82%  
52 11% 78%  
53 9% 66% Median
54 18% 57%  
55 9% 40%  
56 10% 31%  
57 7% 21% Last Result
58 4% 14%  
59 3% 10%  
60 3% 6%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.9% 1.4%  
63 0.3% 0.5%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.9%  
42 0.7% 99.2%  
43 0.9% 98.5%  
44 2% 98%  
45 7% 96%  
46 6% 89%  
47 10% 83%  
48 13% 73%  
49 13% 61% Median
50 7% 48%  
51 18% 41%  
52 7% 23%  
53 8% 16%  
54 3% 9%  
55 3% 6%  
56 1.0% 3%  
57 0.9% 2% Last Result
58 0.9% 1.2%  
59 0.2% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.2% 99.9%  
36 0.4% 99.7%  
37 0.6% 99.4%  
38 2% 98.8%  
39 3% 97%  
40 4% 94% Last Result
41 11% 89%  
42 20% 78%  
43 15% 58% Median
44 10% 43%  
45 6% 34%  
46 3% 28%  
47 9% 25%  
48 5% 16%  
49 4% 10%  
50 2% 6%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.9% 1.2%  
53 0.1% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations