Opinion Poll by CIS, 2–15 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 23.9% 23.0–24.8% 22.8–25.0% 22.6–25.2% 22.2–25.7%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.6% 19.8–21.4% 19.6–21.7% 19.4–21.9% 19.0–22.3%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 12.5% 11.8–13.2% 11.7–13.4% 11.5–13.5% 11.2–13.9%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 9.7% 9.1–10.3% 9.0–10.5% 8.8–10.6% 8.6–10.9%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 9.6% 9.0–10.2% 8.9–10.4% 8.7–10.5% 8.5–10.8%
Vox 0.0% 6.6% 6.1–7.1% 6.0–7.3% 5.9–7.4% 5.7–7.7%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 6.0% 5.5–6.5% 5.4–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.1–7.0%
Partit Popular 4.2% 5.8% 5.3–6.3% 5.2–6.4% 5.1–6.6% 4.9–6.8%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 0.7% 0.6–0.9% 0.5–1.0% 0.5–1.0% 0.4–1.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 34 32–35 32–36 31–36 31–37
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 33 31–34 30–34 30–34 29–35
Junts per Catalunya 34 21 19–21 18–22 18–23 18–23
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 12 11–13 11–14 11–14 10–14
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 13 12–13 12–13 12–14 12–15
Vox 0 9 8–9 8–9 7–10 7–11
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 8 8 7–9 7–9 7–10
Partit Popular 4 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 6–9
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.1% 100%  
31 5% 99.9%  
32 17% 95%  
33 24% 79%  
34 30% 55% Median
35 19% 24%  
36 5% 6%  
37 0.6% 0.7%  
38 0.2% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.9% 99.9%  
30 6% 99.0%  
31 18% 93%  
32 20% 75% Last Result
33 43% 55% Median
34 10% 12%  
35 1.0% 1.1%  
36 0.1% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.5% 100%  
18 8% 99.5%  
19 29% 91%  
20 9% 62%  
21 47% 53% Median
22 3% 6%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0% 100% Last Result
9 0% 100%  
10 1.0% 100%  
11 34% 99.0%  
12 16% 65% Median
13 43% 49%  
14 6% 6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100%  
12 22% 99.7%  
13 75% 78% Median
14 2% 3%  
15 1.3% 1.3%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 4% 100%  
8 30% 96%  
9 63% 66% Median
10 2% 3%  
11 0.6% 0.6%  
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 8% 100%  
8 86% 92% Median
9 5% 6%  
10 1.3% 1.3%  
11 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.2% 100%  
6 7% 99.8%  
7 67% 93% Median
8 16% 25%  
9 9% 9%  
10 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 78 100% 76–80 76–80 75–80 74–81
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 65 66 16% 64–68 64–69 63–69 62–70
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 65 3% 63–67 62–67 62–68 61–68
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 62 0% 61–64 60–65 59–65 59–66
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 60 0% 58–62 58–63 57–63 57–64
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 60 0% 58–62 58–63 57–63 57–64
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 54 0% 52–55 51–56 51–57 50–57
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 52 0% 50–54 50–55 49–55 49–56
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 52 0% 50–54 50–55 49–55 49–56
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 45 0% 43–46 42–46 42–47 41–48

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100% Majority
69 0% 100%  
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.8% 99.9%  
75 3% 99.1%  
76 9% 96%  
77 20% 87%  
78 27% 68%  
79 22% 40% Median
80 16% 18%  
81 2% 2%  
82 0.3% 0.3%  
83 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.5% 100%  
63 4% 99.5%  
64 17% 95%  
65 26% 79% Last Result
66 19% 53% Median
67 19% 35%  
68 8% 16% Majority
69 7% 8%  
70 0.7% 0.8%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 2% 99.9%  
62 4% 98%  
63 13% 94%  
64 25% 81%  
65 29% 56%  
66 16% 26% Median
67 8% 11%  
68 3% 3% Majority
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  
71 0% 0%  
72 0% 0%  
73 0% 0%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0.1% 100%  
59 3% 99.9%  
60 7% 97%  
61 17% 90%  
62 28% 73%  
63 27% 45% Median
64 12% 18%  
65 5% 7%  
66 1.5% 2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Majority

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.4% 100%  
57 3% 99.6%  
58 7% 96%  
59 18% 89%  
60 22% 71%  
61 15% 49%  
62 25% 34% Median
63 8% 9%  
64 0.7% 0.8%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0% Majority
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.4% 100%  
57 3% 99.6%  
58 7% 96%  
59 18% 89%  
60 22% 71%  
61 15% 49%  
62 25% 34% Median
63 8% 9%  
64 0.7% 0.8%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0% Majority
69 0% 0%  
70 0% 0% Last Result

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.7% 100%  
51 6% 99.3%  
52 16% 94%  
53 20% 78%  
54 30% 58% Median
55 18% 27%  
56 6% 9%  
57 2% 3% Last Result
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.3% 100%  
49 3% 99.7%  
50 8% 97%  
51 16% 88%  
52 22% 72%  
53 15% 50%  
54 27% 35% Median
55 7% 8%  
56 0.7% 0.8%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.3% 100%  
49 3% 99.7%  
50 8% 97%  
51 16% 88%  
52 22% 72%  
53 15% 50%  
54 27% 35% Median
55 7% 8%  
56 0.7% 0.8%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100% Last Result
41 1.1% 99.8%  
42 5% 98.7%  
43 9% 94%  
44 32% 85%  
45 36% 53% Median
46 12% 17%  
47 4% 4%  
48 0.6% 0.7%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations