Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 15 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 22.0% 19.5–24.8% 18.8–25.6% 18.2–26.3% 17.1–27.7%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 21.0% 18.6–23.8% 17.9–24.6% 17.3–25.3% 16.2–26.6%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 20.5% 18.1–23.3% 17.4–24.1% 16.8–24.7% 15.7–26.1%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 10.5% 8.8–12.7% 8.3–13.3% 7.9–13.9% 7.1–15.0%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 6.5% 5.2–8.4% 4.8–8.9% 4.5–9.4% 3.9–10.3%
Partit Popular 4.2% 6.0% 4.7–7.8% 4.4–8.3% 4.1–8.8% 3.5–9.7%
Vox 0.0% 5.5% 4.3–7.3% 3.9–7.7% 3.7–8.2% 3.2–9.1%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 4.5% 3.4–6.1% 3.1–6.6% 2.9–7.0% 2.4–7.9%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9% 0.7–3.2% 0.5–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 33 29–37 28–38 27–39 25–42
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 28 25–32 24–34 23–35 21–37
Junts per Catalunya 34 32 29–37 27–38 26–40 25–41
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 14 12–18 11–18 9–19 8–20
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 7 5–10 4–11 4–11 4–13
Partit Popular 4 7 5–10 4–11 3–12 3–13
Vox 0 7 4–9 3–10 3–11 2–12
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 6 3–8 0–8 0–9 0–10
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–5

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.7% 99.7%  
26 0.9% 99.0%  
27 2% 98%  
28 6% 96%  
29 6% 91%  
30 6% 84%  
31 15% 78%  
32 9% 64% Last Result
33 11% 55% Median
34 13% 44%  
35 13% 31%  
36 5% 18%  
37 6% 13%  
38 3% 7%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.6% 1.2%  
42 0.4% 0.7%  
43 0.1% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.3% 99.7%  
22 1.0% 99.5%  
23 1.3% 98.5%  
24 3% 97%  
25 6% 94%  
26 18% 88%  
27 11% 70%  
28 13% 59% Median
29 15% 46%  
30 6% 31%  
31 8% 25%  
32 8% 17%  
33 4% 10%  
34 3% 6%  
35 1.4% 3%  
36 0.7% 1.4%  
37 0.4% 0.7%  
38 0.1% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.2% 99.8%  
25 0.8% 99.6%  
26 2% 98.8%  
27 2% 96%  
28 2% 94%  
29 5% 92%  
30 6% 87%  
31 19% 81%  
32 15% 62% Median
33 12% 47%  
34 4% 35% Last Result
35 6% 31%  
36 10% 25%  
37 8% 15%  
38 3% 7%  
39 2% 5%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.7% 1.1%  
42 0.2% 0.4%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 1.0% 99.9%  
9 2% 99.0%  
10 1.3% 97%  
11 2% 96%  
12 12% 94%  
13 29% 82%  
14 25% 53% Median
15 6% 28%  
16 5% 21%  
17 5% 16%  
18 7% 11%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.4% 0.8%  
21 0.3% 0.4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 6% 99.7%  
5 26% 93%  
6 8% 67%  
7 20% 60% Median
8 16% 39% Last Result
9 4% 23%  
10 11% 19%  
11 6% 8%  
12 0.7% 2%  
13 1.2% 1.4%  
14 0.2% 0.2%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 3% 99.9%  
4 2% 96% Last Result
5 12% 95%  
6 10% 83%  
7 32% 72% Median
8 11% 40%  
9 14% 29%  
10 9% 15%  
11 3% 6%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.2% 0.5%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0.5% 99.8%  
3 6% 99.3%  
4 5% 93%  
5 18% 88%  
6 10% 70%  
7 30% 60% Median
8 9% 30%  
9 12% 21%  
10 5% 9%  
11 2% 4%  
12 1.1% 1.4%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 0% 95%  
2 4% 95%  
3 9% 91%  
4 25% 82% Last Result
5 5% 57%  
6 10% 52% Median
7 25% 42%  
8 14% 18%  
9 2% 4%  
10 1.1% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 11% 12%  
2 0.1% 2%  
3 0.5% 1.5%  
4 0.4% 0.9%  
5 0.3% 0.5%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 73 91% 68–77 67–79 65–80 62–83
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 71 84% 66–76 65–77 64–79 61–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 71 82% 66–76 65–77 64–78 61–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 69 59% 64–74 63–75 61–77 58–80
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 66 27% 61–70 60–72 59–73 56–76
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 66 28% 61–71 60–72 59–73 56–76
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 57 0.4% 53–62 52–63 50–64 48–67
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 57 0.3% 52–62 51–63 50–64 47–67
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 50 0% 46–55 44–56 43–57 41–60
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 40 0% 35–45 35–47 34–47 31–50

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 0.2% 99.4%  
64 1.1% 99.3%  
65 1.4% 98%  
66 2% 97%  
67 4% 95%  
68 5% 91% Majority
69 5% 86%  
70 5% 81%  
71 7% 76%  
72 17% 69% Median
73 7% 52%  
74 13% 45% Last Result
75 7% 32%  
76 11% 25%  
77 4% 14%  
78 4% 10%  
79 2% 6%  
80 1.2% 3%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.4% 1.2%  
83 0.4% 0.9%  
84 0.3% 0.5%  
85 0.1% 0.2%  
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.2% 99.7%  
62 0.5% 99.5%  
63 1.0% 98.9%  
64 2% 98%  
65 2% 96%  
66 5% 94%  
67 6% 90%  
68 5% 84% Majority
69 11% 79%  
70 8% 68% Last Result
71 14% 60% Median
72 11% 46%  
73 11% 35%  
74 5% 24%  
75 6% 19%  
76 6% 13%  
77 2% 7%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.4% 3%  
80 0.5% 1.2%  
81 0.4% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 0.6% 99.4%  
63 1.1% 98.8%  
64 2% 98%  
65 2% 96%  
66 5% 94%  
67 7% 89%  
68 5% 82% Majority
69 11% 78%  
70 8% 67% Last Result
71 16% 59% Median
72 9% 43%  
73 11% 34%  
74 5% 23%  
75 6% 17%  
76 6% 12%  
77 2% 6%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.1% 2%  
80 0.4% 1.1%  
81 0.4% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
58 0.4% 99.8%  
59 0.4% 99.4%  
60 0.8% 99.0%  
61 1.5% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 4% 95%  
64 7% 91%  
65 8% 85%  
66 7% 77%  
67 10% 69%  
68 8% 59% Median, Majority
69 13% 51%  
70 12% 38%  
71 6% 26%  
72 5% 20%  
73 5% 15%  
74 3% 10%  
75 2% 7%  
76 2% 5%  
77 1.3% 3%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.3% 1.0%  
80 0.5% 0.7%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.6%  
57 0.5% 99.1%  
58 1.0% 98.6%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 95%  
61 5% 93%  
62 5% 88%  
63 8% 83%  
64 11% 75%  
65 12% 65% Median
66 14% 53% Last Result
67 12% 39%  
68 9% 27% Majority
69 5% 18%  
70 4% 13%  
71 4% 10%  
72 2% 6%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.6% 1.1%  
76 0.2% 0.5%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.6%  
57 0.4% 99.1%  
58 0.9% 98.7%  
59 2% 98%  
60 2% 95%  
61 4% 94%  
62 5% 90%  
63 7% 84%  
64 10% 77%  
65 14% 68% Median
66 13% 54% Last Result
67 12% 40%  
68 9% 28% Majority
69 5% 19%  
70 3% 14%  
71 4% 11%  
72 3% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.7% 1.3%  
76 0.2% 0.6%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 0.9% 99.1%  
50 1.0% 98%  
51 2% 97%  
52 5% 96%  
53 5% 91%  
54 10% 86%  
55 10% 76%  
56 8% 66% Median
57 17% 58%  
58 12% 42%  
59 8% 29%  
60 5% 21%  
61 5% 16%  
62 4% 12%  
63 3% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 1.2% 2% Last Result
66 0.4% 1.2%  
67 0.5% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.4% Majority
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.1% 99.8%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 0.6% 99.3%  
49 1.0% 98.7%  
50 2% 98%  
51 4% 96%  
52 8% 92%  
53 6% 83%  
54 10% 77%  
55 9% 67%  
56 5% 58% Median
57 7% 53% Last Result
58 10% 45%  
59 13% 35%  
60 6% 22%  
61 7% 17%  
62 3% 10%  
63 3% 8%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.5% 1.1%  
67 0.3% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.3% Majority
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.4% 99.6%  
42 0.7% 99.3%  
43 2% 98.6%  
44 3% 97%  
45 3% 94%  
46 4% 91%  
47 18% 87%  
48 6% 69%  
49 12% 63% Median
50 8% 51%  
51 9% 44%  
52 13% 35%  
53 7% 21%  
54 3% 14%  
55 2% 11%  
56 4% 9%  
57 2% 5% Last Result
58 2% 2%  
59 0.4% 0.9%  
60 0.2% 0.6%  
61 0.2% 0.4%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.3% 99.8%  
32 0.6% 99.4%  
33 1.1% 98.9%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 95%  
36 11% 89%  
37 7% 78%  
38 6% 70%  
39 10% 64%  
40 11% 54% Last Result, Median
41 10% 43%  
42 7% 34%  
43 7% 26%  
44 7% 19%  
45 3% 12%  
46 3% 9%  
47 3% 6%  
48 1.1% 2%  
49 0.6% 1.4%  
50 0.4% 0.8%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations