Opinion Poll by Opinòmetre for CEO, 13–21 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 22.0% 20.1–24.1% 19.5–24.7% 19.0–25.3% 18.2–26.3%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 20.7% 18.8–22.8% 18.3–23.4% 17.8–23.9% 16.9–24.9%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 19.6% 17.8–21.7% 17.3–22.3% 16.8–22.8% 16.0–23.8%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 9.5% 8.2–11.1% 7.8–11.6% 7.5–12.0% 7.0–12.8%
Partit Popular 4.2% 7.0% 5.9–8.5% 5.6–8.9% 5.3–9.2% 4.9–9.9%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 6.5% 5.4–7.8% 5.1–8.2% 4.8–8.6% 4.4–9.3%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 6.2% 5.1–7.5% 4.8–7.9% 4.6–8.2% 4.1–8.9%
Vox 0.0% 4.8% 3.9–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.5–6.7% 3.1–7.4%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.3% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–3.8% 1.2–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 33 30–37 29–37 28–38 27–39
Junts per Catalunya 34 32 30–37 29–37 28–38 26–39
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 27 24–30 24–31 22–31 21–33
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 13 10–14 9–15 9–16 8–18
Partit Popular 4 9 7–12 7–12 6–12 5–13
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 7 5–9 5–10 4–10 4–11
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 8 7–9 6–10 5–11 4–12
Vox 0 5 3–7 3–7 3–8 2–9
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0–1 0–4 0–4 0–5

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 0.2% 99.9%  
27 0.4% 99.7%  
28 2% 99.3%  
29 4% 97%  
30 9% 93%  
31 17% 84%  
32 14% 67% Last Result
33 13% 53% Median
34 11% 40%  
35 11% 30%  
36 6% 19%  
37 9% 13%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.8% 1.2%  
40 0.3% 0.5%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
25 0.1% 100%  
26 1.0% 99.9%  
27 0.6% 98.9%  
28 2% 98%  
29 3% 97%  
30 4% 94%  
31 21% 89%  
32 23% 68% Median
33 12% 45%  
34 11% 33% Last Result
35 5% 22%  
36 5% 18%  
37 9% 13%  
38 3% 4%  
39 0.6% 1.0%  
40 0.3% 0.4%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.4% 99.7%  
22 3% 99.4%  
23 1.3% 97%  
24 8% 96%  
25 20% 87%  
26 17% 67%  
27 23% 50% Median
28 10% 27%  
29 7% 17%  
30 3% 10%  
31 6% 7%  
32 1.1% 2%  
33 0.4% 0.6%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 2% 99.9%  
9 5% 98%  
10 4% 93%  
11 4% 90%  
12 35% 85%  
13 31% 51% Median
14 14% 20%  
15 3% 6%  
16 1.5% 3%  
17 0.7% 1.3%  
18 0.6% 0.7%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 1.0% 100%  
6 2% 99.0%  
7 20% 97%  
8 10% 76%  
9 28% 67% Median
10 22% 39%  
11 6% 17%  
12 10% 11%  
13 0.3% 0.7%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 3% 99.9%  
5 19% 97%  
6 15% 79%  
7 25% 63% Median
8 27% 38% Last Result
9 4% 11%  
10 6% 7%  
11 1.1% 1.2%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9% Last Result
5 2% 98%  
6 3% 96%  
7 18% 93%  
8 48% 75% Median
9 18% 27%  
10 4% 9%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.4% 0.6%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0.5% 99.8%  
3 13% 99.4%  
4 8% 87%  
5 35% 79% Median
6 11% 44%  
7 29% 33%  
8 2% 4%  
9 2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 24% 32%  
2 0% 8%  
3 2% 8%  
4 4% 5%  
5 1.1% 2%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 74 99.2% 71–78 70–79 69–80 67–82
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 74 98% 70–78 69–79 68–79 66–82
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 73 95% 69–76 68–78 67–79 65–81
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 67 41% 63–70 62–72 61–73 59–74
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 66 38% 63–70 62–71 61–72 59–74
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 66 32% 62–69 61–71 60–72 58–74
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 65 55 0% 52–58 51–59 50–61 48–63
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 53 0% 50–57 49–59 48–59 46–61
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 48 0% 45–52 44–53 43–53 41–56
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 40 0% 36–43 36–45 35–46 33–47

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.2% 99.8%  
67 0.4% 99.6%  
68 0.9% 99.2% Majority
69 3% 98%  
70 4% 96% Last Result
71 7% 92%  
72 8% 84%  
73 12% 76% Median
74 16% 64%  
75 9% 48%  
76 18% 39%  
77 7% 21%  
78 6% 13%  
79 4% 8%  
80 3% 4%  
81 0.7% 1.4%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.4% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.6%  
67 0.9% 99.3%  
68 2% 98% Majority
69 3% 97%  
70 4% 94% Last Result
71 13% 90%  
72 8% 77%  
73 13% 69% Median
74 15% 56%  
75 9% 41%  
76 17% 32%  
77 5% 15%  
78 5% 10%  
79 3% 6%  
80 1.3% 2%  
81 0.6% 1.1%  
82 0.1% 0.5%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.7%  
66 2% 99.3%  
67 2% 98%  
68 5% 95% Majority
69 4% 91%  
70 9% 87%  
71 13% 78%  
72 9% 64% Median
73 10% 56%  
74 18% 46% Last Result
75 12% 28%  
76 7% 16%  
77 2% 9%  
78 3% 7%  
79 1.4% 4%  
80 2% 2%  
81 0.3% 0.7%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100% Last Result
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.7%  
60 0.8% 99.4%  
61 2% 98.5%  
62 5% 96%  
63 8% 91%  
64 13% 83%  
65 11% 70%  
66 8% 59%  
67 10% 51% Median
68 13% 41% Majority
69 7% 28%  
70 12% 21%  
71 4% 9%  
72 1.4% 5%  
73 3% 4%  
74 0.9% 1.3%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 0.6% 99.7%  
60 1.2% 99.1%  
61 3% 98%  
62 4% 95%  
63 8% 92%  
64 10% 84%  
65 12% 74% Median
66 16% 62% Last Result
67 8% 46%  
68 14% 38% Majority
69 11% 24%  
70 5% 13%  
71 3% 7%  
72 2% 4%  
73 1.4% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.0%  
75 0.3% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.2% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 1.2% 99.3%  
60 1.4% 98%  
61 3% 97%  
62 5% 93%  
63 12% 89%  
64 12% 77%  
65 10% 65% Median
66 15% 55% Last Result
67 7% 39%  
68 14% 32% Majority
69 10% 19%  
70 3% 9%  
71 2% 6%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.4% 1.2%  
74 0.4% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.7%  
49 1.3% 99.1%  
50 2% 98%  
51 4% 95%  
52 6% 91%  
53 8% 85%  
54 19% 76%  
55 15% 57%  
56 13% 42% Median
57 10% 29%  
58 9% 19%  
59 5% 9%  
60 2% 5%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.5% 1.1%  
63 0.3% 0.6%  
64 0.2% 0.3%  
65 0% 0.1% Last Result
66 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.2% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.8%  
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 1.2% 99.3%  
48 3% 98%  
49 3% 95%  
50 4% 92%  
51 9% 88%  
52 10% 79%  
53 25% 70%  
54 8% 45% Median
55 13% 37%  
56 8% 23%  
57 6% 15% Last Result
58 2% 9%  
59 5% 7%  
60 1.3% 2%  
61 0.3% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.4%  
63 0.2% 0.2%  
64 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.8% 99.8%  
42 1.0% 99.0%  
43 2% 98%  
44 4% 96%  
45 6% 92%  
46 15% 86%  
47 8% 72%  
48 26% 64%  
49 11% 37% Median
50 9% 27%  
51 5% 18%  
52 4% 12%  
53 6% 8%  
54 1.1% 2%  
55 0.5% 1.1%  
56 0.2% 0.6%  
57 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.3% 99.7%  
34 0.9% 99.4%  
35 3% 98.5%  
36 8% 96%  
37 7% 88%  
38 18% 81%  
39 10% 63%  
40 8% 53% Last Result, Median
41 14% 45%  
42 8% 31%  
43 14% 24%  
44 4% 10%  
45 2% 6%  
46 2% 3%  
47 1.1% 1.4%  
48 0.2% 0.3%  
49 0.1% 0.1%  
50 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations