Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 18–22 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 20.5% 18.7–22.6% 18.2–23.2% 17.7–23.7% 16.9–24.7%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 19.3% 17.5–21.3% 16.9–21.9% 16.5–22.3% 15.7–23.4%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 18.7% 16.9–20.7% 16.4–21.3% 16.0–21.7% 15.2–22.7%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 11.1% 9.7–12.8% 9.3–13.3% 9.0–13.7% 8.4–14.5%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.3% 6.2–8.7% 5.8–9.1% 5.6–9.4% 5.1–10.2%
Partit Popular 4.2% 6.7% 5.6–8.1% 5.3–8.5% 5.1–8.8% 4.6–9.5%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 6.1% 5.1–7.5% 4.8–7.8% 4.6–8.2% 4.1–8.8%
Vox 0.0% 6.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.7–7.7% 4.5–8.0% 4.0–8.7%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.6% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.8% 0.7–3.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 31 28–34 28–35 27–35 25–37
Junts per Catalunya 34 31 28–33 26–35 26–36 25–37
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 25 24–28 23–29 22–30 20–31
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 14 13–18 12–18 12–18 12–19
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 7–10 6–11 5–11 5–12
Partit Popular 4 9 7–10 7–11 6–12 5–12
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 8 7–10 6–10 5–11 4–11
Vox 0 7 6–9 5–10 5–11 3–12
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.2% 100%  
25 0.3% 99.8%  
26 1.0% 99.4%  
27 2% 98%  
28 12% 96%  
29 11% 84%  
30 19% 74%  
31 20% 55% Median
32 13% 35% Last Result
33 7% 21%  
34 8% 14%  
35 4% 6%  
36 1.1% 2%  
37 0.6% 0.9%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.1% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 99.6%  
26 3% 98%  
27 3% 95%  
28 7% 92%  
29 6% 84%  
30 15% 78%  
31 27% 63% Median
32 19% 36%  
33 7% 16%  
34 4% 9% Last Result
35 3% 6%  
36 1.5% 3%  
37 1.0% 1.4%  
38 0.2% 0.3%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.5% 99.7%  
21 0.5% 99.3%  
22 2% 98.7%  
23 4% 97%  
24 13% 93%  
25 30% 80% Median
26 26% 49%  
27 12% 24%  
28 6% 12%  
29 3% 6%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.9% 1.1%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 0.2% 99.9%  
11 0.2% 99.7%  
12 6% 99.5%  
13 16% 93%  
14 31% 78% Median
15 12% 46%  
16 16% 35%  
17 6% 19%  
18 10% 13%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100%  
5 4% 99.9%  
6 4% 96%  
7 24% 92%  
8 33% 69% Last Result, Median
9 10% 35%  
10 18% 25%  
11 6% 8%  
12 1.3% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 2% 99.9%  
6 2% 98%  
7 25% 96%  
8 8% 71%  
9 33% 63% Median
10 22% 30%  
11 5% 8%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.2% 0.3%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.1% 100%  
4 2% 99.9% Last Result
5 2% 98%  
6 2% 97%  
7 16% 95%  
8 47% 79% Median
9 18% 32%  
10 9% 14%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 100%  
4 0.4% 99.5%  
5 9% 99.1%  
6 7% 90%  
7 40% 83% Median
8 9% 44%  
9 28% 35%  
10 5% 7%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 70 83% 67–73 66–74 65–75 63–77
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 70 83% 67–73 66–74 65–75 63–77
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 70 84% 67–73 66–74 65–75 63–77
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 65 15% 61–68 60–70 59–70 58–72
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 62 2% 58–65 58–66 57–67 55–69
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 62 2% 59–65 58–66 57–67 55–69
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 58 0% 53–61 53–62 52–62 50–64
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 57 0% 54–60 52–61 52–62 49–63
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 49 0% 46–52 45–53 44–54 42–56
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 39 0% 36–42 35–43 35–44 33–46

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.8% 99.4%  
65 2% 98.6%  
66 5% 97%  
67 9% 92%  
68 13% 83% Majority
69 16% 70%  
70 17% 54% Last Result, Median
71 9% 37%  
72 12% 28%  
73 11% 16%  
74 2% 6%  
75 2% 4%  
76 0.4% 2%  
77 0.7% 1.1%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.8% 99.5%  
65 2% 98.7%  
66 5% 97%  
67 9% 92%  
68 13% 83% Majority
69 15% 71%  
70 17% 55% Last Result, Median
71 9% 38%  
72 12% 29%  
73 11% 17%  
74 2% 6%  
75 3% 4%  
76 0.5% 2%  
77 0.7% 1.1%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 0.8% 99.4%  
65 2% 98.6%  
66 5% 97%  
67 8% 91%  
68 9% 84% Majority
69 17% 75%  
70 17% 58% Median
71 17% 40%  
72 9% 23%  
73 5% 14%  
74 4% 9% Last Result
75 3% 5%  
76 1.0% 2%  
77 0.6% 1.0%  
78 0.2% 0.4%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.9% Last Result
58 0.5% 99.6%  
59 2% 99.2%  
60 2% 97%  
61 6% 95%  
62 9% 89%  
63 13% 80%  
64 12% 66% Median
65 12% 54%  
66 20% 42%  
67 7% 22%  
68 5% 15% Majority
69 4% 10%  
70 4% 6%  
71 1.0% 2%  
72 0.9% 1.2%  
73 0.1% 0.3%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 0.9% 99.3%  
57 2% 98%  
58 6% 96%  
59 8% 90%  
60 13% 82%  
61 16% 69%  
62 17% 53% Median
63 15% 36%  
64 10% 21%  
65 5% 11%  
66 1.5% 6% Last Result
67 3% 5%  
68 0.8% 2% Majority
69 0.4% 0.8%  
70 0.1% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 0.8% 99.4%  
57 2% 98.6%  
58 6% 96%  
59 8% 90%  
60 13% 82%  
61 15% 69%  
62 17% 54% Median
63 15% 37%  
64 10% 21%  
65 5% 12%  
66 1.5% 6% Last Result
67 3% 5%  
68 0.8% 2% Majority
69 0.5% 0.8%  
70 0.1% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.3% 99.8%  
51 0.8% 99.5%  
52 1.2% 98.7%  
53 8% 97%  
54 3% 90%  
55 8% 87%  
56 18% 79% Median
57 10% 61%  
58 12% 52%  
59 19% 39%  
60 8% 21%  
61 7% 13%  
62 3% 6%  
63 1.1% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.4% Last Result
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.5% 99.8%  
50 0.6% 99.3%  
51 0.8% 98.8%  
52 3% 98%  
53 3% 95%  
54 7% 92%  
55 16% 85% Median
56 17% 69%  
57 9% 52% Last Result
58 16% 43%  
59 14% 27%  
60 6% 12%  
61 3% 6%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.5% 0.9%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.8%  
43 0.6% 99.2%  
44 1.2% 98.6%  
45 3% 97%  
46 11% 94%  
47 10% 83%  
48 8% 72% Median
49 18% 64%  
50 13% 46%  
51 18% 33%  
52 7% 16%  
53 5% 9%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.9%  
33 0.4% 99.7%  
34 1.2% 99.4%  
35 4% 98%  
36 8% 94%  
37 9% 86%  
38 19% 77%  
39 15% 57% Median
40 13% 42% Last Result
41 14% 29%  
42 6% 15%  
43 5% 10%  
44 3% 4%  
45 0.9% 2%  
46 0.5% 0.9%  
47 0.3% 0.4%  
48 0.1% 0.1%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations