Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 18–22 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 21.5% 20.5–22.5% 20.2–22.8% 20.0–23.1% 19.5–23.6%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 19.7% 18.7–20.7% 18.5–21.0% 18.2–21.3% 17.8–21.7%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 19.3% 18.3–20.3% 18.1–20.6% 17.8–20.8% 17.4–21.3%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 11.2% 10.4–12.0% 10.2–12.2% 10.0–12.4% 9.7–12.8%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.2% 6.6–7.9% 6.4–8.1% 6.3–8.3% 6.0–8.6%
Partit Popular 4.2% 5.8% 5.3–6.4% 5.1–6.6% 5.0–6.8% 4.7–7.1%
Vox 0.0% 5.8% 5.3–6.4% 5.1–6.6% 5.0–6.8% 4.7–7.1%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 4.9% 4.4–5.5% 4.3–5.7% 4.1–5.8% 3.9–6.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 30 28–31 27–32 27–32 26–33
Junts per Catalunya 34 31 31–34 31–34 30–35 29–36
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 29 28–31 28–31 27–32 27–33
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 15 14–16 13–17 13–17 13–18
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 7–9 7–10 7–10 7–10
Partit Popular 4 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–9
Vox 0 7 7–8 6–9 6–9 5–9
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 7 5–7 4–8 4–8 4–8

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0.9% 100%  
27 4% 99.0%  
28 9% 95%  
29 8% 86%  
30 38% 78% Median
31 33% 40%  
32 5% 6%  
33 1.0% 1.1%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.7% 99.8%  
30 3% 99.1%  
31 54% 96% Median
32 13% 42%  
33 18% 29%  
34 8% 11% Last Result
35 2% 3%  
36 1.1% 1.1%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.3% 100%  
27 3% 99.7%  
28 25% 97%  
29 39% 71% Median
30 18% 33%  
31 9% 14%  
32 3% 5% Last Result
33 1.0% 1.3%  
34 0.3% 0.3%  
35 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 8% 100%  
14 32% 92%  
15 21% 60% Median
16 29% 39%  
17 8% 10%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
5 0.1% 100%  
6 0.4% 99.9%  
7 11% 99.5%  
8 70% 88% Last Result, Median
9 10% 18%  
10 8% 8%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0.9% 100%  
6 11% 99.1%  
7 72% 88% Median
8 4% 16%  
9 12% 12%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.8% 100%  
6 5% 99.2%  
7 84% 94% Median
8 5% 11%  
9 6% 6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 8% 100% Last Result
5 6% 92%  
6 21% 86%  
7 58% 65% Median
8 8% 8%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 69 85% 67–71 67–72 67–73 66–74
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 67 43% 66–69 65–70 65–71 63–72
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 67 45% 65–69 65–70 64–71 63–72
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 66 61 0% 59–63 59–64 59–64 58–65
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 61 0% 58–62 58–63 57–63 56–64
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 60 0% 57–61 57–62 56–62 55–63
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 52 0% 50–54 50–55 49–55 48–56
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 37 0% 36–39 36–40 35–40 34–42

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.3% 100%  
66 2% 99.7%  
67 13% 98%  
68 28% 85% Median, Majority
69 15% 57%  
70 20% 42%  
71 13% 22%  
72 6% 9%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.7% 0.8% Last Result
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.5% 99.9%  
64 1.0% 99.5%  
65 6% 98%  
66 14% 93%  
67 36% 79% Median
68 17% 43% Majority
69 17% 26%  
70 7% 9% Last Result
71 2% 3%  
72 0.5% 0.7%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.6% 99.9%  
64 3% 99.3%  
65 7% 97%  
66 13% 89%  
67 31% 76% Median
68 26% 45% Majority
69 10% 20%  
70 6% 9%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.8% 0.9%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 2% 99.7%  
59 14% 98%  
60 29% 84% Median
61 17% 55%  
62 20% 38%  
63 10% 18%  
64 5% 8%  
65 2% 2%  
66 0.4% 0.5% Last Result
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0% Majority

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.3% 100%  
56 0.5% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.2%  
58 8% 97%  
59 20% 90%  
60 15% 70% Median
61 35% 54%  
62 12% 19%  
63 6% 7%  
64 0.9% 1.2%  
65 0.3% 0.4% Last Result
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.3% 100%  
55 0.6% 99.7%  
56 3% 99.0%  
57 8% 96% Last Result
58 19% 89%  
59 17% 69% Median
60 33% 53%  
61 13% 20%  
62 5% 6%  
63 0.8% 1.3%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.4% 100%  
48 0.7% 99.5%  
49 3% 98.8%  
50 8% 96%  
51 22% 88%  
52 16% 66% Median
53 32% 50%  
54 12% 18%  
55 5% 6%  
56 0.8% 1.1%  
57 0.3% 0.3% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.4% 99.9%  
35 3% 99.5%  
36 24% 97%  
37 36% 72% Median
38 17% 36%  
39 10% 19%  
40 7% 9% Last Result
41 2% 2%  
42 0.6% 0.6%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations