Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 22 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 22.0% 19.5–24.8% 18.8–25.6% 18.2–26.3% 17.1–27.7%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 21.5% 19.0–24.3% 18.3–25.1% 17.8–25.8% 16.6–27.2%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 19.8% 17.4–22.5% 16.7–23.3% 16.1–23.9% 15.1–25.3%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 10.5% 8.8–12.7% 8.3–13.3% 7.9–13.9% 7.1–15.0%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 6.8% 5.4–8.6% 5.0–9.2% 4.7–9.6% 4.1–10.6%
Partit Popular 4.2% 6.0% 4.7–7.8% 4.4–8.3% 4.1–8.8% 3.5–9.7%
Vox 0.0% 5.2% 4.1–7.0% 3.7–7.5% 3.5–7.9% 3.0–8.8%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 4.8% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–6.9% 3.1–7.3% 2.6–8.2%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9% 0.7–3.2% 0.5–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 32 29–37 28–39 27–40 25–42
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 30 25–33 25–35 24–36 22–38
Junts per Catalunya 34 31 27–36 26–37 25–38 23–40
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 14 12–17 10–18 9–19 8–20
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 5–10 5–11 4–11 4–13
Partit Popular 4 7 5–10 5–11 3–12 3–13
Vox 0 7 3–9 3–9 3–10 2–12
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 7 3–8 2–9 0–10 0–11
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–5

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 0.4% 99.7%  
26 0.9% 99.3%  
27 2% 98%  
28 6% 97%  
29 5% 90%  
30 12% 85%  
31 10% 73%  
32 15% 63% Last Result, Median
33 7% 48%  
34 11% 41%  
35 13% 30%  
36 6% 17%  
37 3% 11%  
38 2% 8%  
39 3% 6%  
40 1.2% 3%  
41 0.7% 2%  
42 0.9% 1.3%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.8%  
23 0.8% 99.5%  
24 4% 98.7%  
25 7% 95%  
26 12% 89%  
27 8% 76%  
28 7% 68%  
29 5% 61%  
30 18% 56% Median
31 16% 38%  
32 9% 22%  
33 4% 13%  
34 4% 9%  
35 3% 6%  
36 1.1% 3%  
37 0.8% 1.4%  
38 0.3% 0.6%  
39 0.2% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.4%  
25 2% 98.8%  
26 5% 96%  
27 3% 92%  
28 3% 89%  
29 10% 85%  
30 8% 76%  
31 19% 67% Median
32 17% 48%  
33 8% 31%  
34 6% 23% Last Result
35 6% 17%  
36 3% 11%  
37 5% 9%  
38 1.2% 3%  
39 1.2% 2%  
40 0.8% 1.1%  
41 0.1% 0.4%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.3% 99.9%  
9 2% 98.7%  
10 2% 97%  
11 2% 95%  
12 18% 93%  
13 22% 74%  
14 24% 52% Median
15 6% 28%  
16 7% 22%  
17 5% 15%  
18 7% 10%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.5% 0.9%  
21 0.2% 0.4%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 3% 99.7%  
5 22% 96%  
6 7% 75%  
7 14% 67%  
8 30% 53% Last Result, Median
9 6% 23%  
10 9% 17%  
11 6% 8%  
12 1.0% 2%  
13 0.9% 1.3%  
14 0.2% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 3% 99.8%  
4 2% 97% Last Result
5 14% 95%  
6 10% 81%  
7 33% 71% Median
8 7% 38%  
9 17% 31%  
10 8% 14%  
11 2% 5%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.4% 0.7%  
14 0.3% 0.3%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.6%  
2 0.5% 99.6%  
3 11% 99.1%  
4 5% 88%  
5 16% 83%  
6 15% 68%  
7 28% 53% Median
8 7% 25%  
9 14% 19%  
10 3% 5%  
11 0.7% 1.4%  
12 0.6% 0.7%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 3% 97%  
3 5% 94%  
4 20% 89% Last Result
5 5% 69%  
6 6% 64%  
7 27% 58% Median
8 22% 32%  
9 6% 10%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.9% 0.9%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 9% 11%  
2 0.1% 2%  
3 0.4% 2%  
4 0.5% 1.2%  
5 0.6% 0.7%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 71 83% 67–77 66–78 64–80 62–82
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 70 75% 66–75 64–76 63–78 60–80
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 71 77% 66–75 64–77 63–78 60–80
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 70 67% 65–75 63–76 62–78 60–80
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 64 20% 59–69 58–71 57–72 55–75
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 64 21% 59–69 58–71 57–72 55–75
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 58 1.0% 53–63 52–64 51–66 48–68
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 57 0.5% 52–62 51–63 50–65 47–68
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 51 0% 46–55 45–57 44–58 41–60
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 40 0% 35–45 35–47 35–48 31–50

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.3% 99.5%  
63 0.8% 99.3%  
64 1.2% 98%  
65 1.3% 97%  
66 4% 96%  
67 9% 92%  
68 4% 83% Majority
69 12% 79%  
70 4% 67%  
71 12% 62% Median
72 9% 50%  
73 7% 41%  
74 12% 34% Last Result
75 4% 22%  
76 5% 18%  
77 5% 13%  
78 3% 7%  
79 1.4% 4%  
80 1.5% 3%  
81 0.6% 1.3%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.5%  
61 0.6% 99.2%  
62 1.0% 98.6%  
63 1.5% 98%  
64 2% 96%  
65 4% 94%  
66 5% 90%  
67 10% 85%  
68 6% 75% Majority
69 11% 70%  
70 9% 59% Last Result, Median
71 7% 50%  
72 13% 43%  
73 9% 30%  
74 8% 21%  
75 4% 12%  
76 3% 8%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.4% 0.9%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.6%  
61 0.6% 99.3%  
62 0.9% 98.7%  
63 1.4% 98%  
64 2% 96%  
65 4% 95%  
66 5% 91%  
67 10% 87%  
68 5% 77% Majority
69 11% 71%  
70 9% 60% Last Result, Median
71 7% 51%  
72 12% 44%  
73 10% 32%  
74 9% 22%  
75 4% 13%  
76 4% 9%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.0%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.7%  
61 0.7% 99.2%  
62 1.4% 98.6%  
63 3% 97%  
64 3% 94%  
65 5% 91%  
66 11% 87%  
67 9% 76%  
68 10% 67% Majority
69 6% 57%  
70 14% 52% Median
71 7% 37%  
72 8% 30%  
73 7% 22%  
74 4% 15%  
75 3% 11%  
76 3% 8%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.3% 3%  
79 0.6% 1.3%  
80 0.3% 0.7%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.7%  
55 0.4% 99.6%  
56 0.9% 99.2%  
57 1.5% 98%  
58 4% 97%  
59 4% 93%  
60 5% 89%  
61 7% 84%  
62 10% 77%  
63 9% 67% Median
64 13% 58%  
65 7% 45%  
66 12% 38% Last Result
67 5% 26%  
68 7% 20% Majority
69 5% 13%  
70 3% 8%  
71 2% 6%  
72 1.3% 3%  
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.3% 0.9%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.7%  
55 0.3% 99.6%  
56 0.8% 99.3%  
57 1.3% 98.5%  
58 4% 97%  
59 4% 94%  
60 5% 89%  
61 7% 85%  
62 10% 78%  
63 9% 68% Median
64 13% 59%  
65 6% 47%  
66 13% 40% Last Result
67 6% 27%  
68 7% 21% Majority
69 6% 14%  
70 3% 9%  
71 2% 6%  
72 1.4% 4%  
73 1.3% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.0%  
75 0.2% 0.6%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 0.6% 99.4%  
50 0.7% 98.8%  
51 2% 98%  
52 2% 96%  
53 5% 94%  
54 10% 89%  
55 5% 79%  
56 7% 74%  
57 15% 66%  
58 7% 52%  
59 11% 44% Median
60 5% 34%  
61 10% 28%  
62 7% 18%  
63 4% 12%  
64 3% 8%  
65 2% 5% Last Result
66 1.3% 3%  
67 0.8% 2%  
68 0.6% 1.0% Majority
69 0.3% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 0.7% 99.3%  
49 0.9% 98.6%  
50 2% 98%  
51 3% 96%  
52 3% 93%  
53 11% 90%  
54 6% 79%  
55 10% 73%  
56 8% 63%  
57 13% 55% Last Result
58 5% 42% Median
59 8% 37%  
60 9% 29%  
61 9% 21%  
62 4% 11%  
63 2% 7%  
64 2% 5%  
65 1.2% 3%  
66 0.4% 1.4%  
67 0.4% 1.0%  
68 0.2% 0.5% Majority
69 0.3% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 99.9%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 0.8% 99.5%  
43 1.1% 98.7%  
44 2% 98%  
45 2% 96%  
46 8% 94%  
47 7% 85%  
48 6% 78%  
49 14% 73%  
50 8% 59%  
51 11% 51% Median
52 11% 40%  
53 6% 28%  
54 7% 23%  
55 6% 15%  
56 4% 9%  
57 1.5% 5% Last Result
58 2% 4%  
59 0.7% 2%  
60 0.8% 1.3%  
61 0.2% 0.5%  
62 0.2% 0.3%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.1% 100%  
31 0.4% 99.8%  
32 0.4% 99.4%  
33 0.6% 99.0%  
34 0.7% 98%  
35 8% 98%  
36 10% 89%  
37 6% 79%  
38 7% 74%  
39 7% 67%  
40 16% 60% Last Result, Median
41 10% 44%  
42 9% 34%  
43 7% 24%  
44 5% 17%  
45 4% 12%  
46 2% 8%  
47 3% 6%  
48 2% 3%  
49 0.7% 1.3%  
50 0.2% 0.7%  
51 0.2% 0.5%  
52 0.2% 0.3%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations