Opinion Poll by electoPanel for electomania.es, 29 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 21.5% 19.0–24.3% 18.3–25.1% 17.8–25.8% 16.6–27.2%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 21.5% 19.0–24.3% 18.3–25.1% 17.8–25.8% 16.6–27.2%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 19.5% 17.1–22.2% 16.5–23.0% 15.9–23.7% 14.8–25.0%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 10.5% 8.8–12.7% 8.3–13.3% 7.9–13.9% 7.1–15.0%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 6.8% 5.4–8.6% 5.0–9.2% 4.7–9.6% 4.1–10.6%
Partit Popular 4.2% 6.0% 4.7–7.8% 4.4–8.3% 4.1–8.8% 3.5–9.7%
Vox 0.0% 5.2% 4.1–7.0% 3.7–7.5% 3.5–7.9% 3.0–8.8%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 4.8% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–6.9% 3.1–7.3% 2.6–8.2%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.6–2.6% 0.5–2.9% 0.4–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 33 28–37 27–38 26–39 25–42
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 30 25–34 25–35 24–36 22–38
Junts per Catalunya 34 31 26–36 26–37 25–38 23–40
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 13 12–17 11–18 9–19 8–20
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 5–10 5–11 4–12 4–13
Partit Popular 4 7 5–10 5–11 3–12 3–14
Vox 0 6 3–9 3–9 3–10 2–12
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 7 3–8 2–9 0–10 0–11
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–4

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.3% 99.8%  
25 0.5% 99.5%  
26 2% 99.0%  
27 3% 97%  
28 8% 95%  
29 9% 87%  
30 7% 78%  
31 8% 71%  
32 13% 63% Last Result
33 10% 50% Median
34 11% 41%  
35 11% 30%  
36 7% 19%  
37 4% 12%  
38 4% 7%  
39 1.1% 4%  
40 0.9% 2%  
41 0.7% 2%  
42 0.5% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.4% 99.8%  
23 0.4% 99.3%  
24 2% 98.9%  
25 10% 97%  
26 7% 87%  
27 11% 80%  
28 9% 70%  
29 8% 61%  
30 11% 53% Median
31 11% 42%  
32 13% 31%  
33 8% 18%  
34 4% 11%  
35 2% 6%  
36 2% 4%  
37 1.2% 2%  
38 0.1% 0.6%  
39 0.2% 0.5%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.5% 99.9%  
24 0.6% 99.4%  
25 3% 98.8%  
26 6% 96%  
27 5% 90%  
28 3% 85%  
29 10% 82%  
30 9% 72%  
31 22% 63% Median
32 11% 41%  
33 6% 29%  
34 7% 24% Last Result
35 5% 17%  
36 4% 12%  
37 5% 8%  
38 2% 4%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.4% 0.7%  
41 0.2% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 1.1% 99.9%  
9 2% 98.8%  
10 2% 97%  
11 3% 95%  
12 17% 92%  
13 26% 75% Median
14 16% 49%  
15 5% 33%  
16 9% 28%  
17 9% 19%  
18 7% 10%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.7% 1.2%  
21 0.3% 0.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
3 0.3% 100%  
4 3% 99.7%  
5 17% 96%  
6 9% 80%  
7 18% 71%  
8 29% 53% Last Result, Median
9 6% 24%  
10 10% 19%  
11 6% 9%  
12 1.2% 3%  
13 1.3% 2%  
14 0.3% 0.4%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 3% 99.9%  
4 2% 97% Last Result
5 10% 95%  
6 9% 85%  
7 33% 76% Median
8 6% 43%  
9 22% 37%  
10 8% 15%  
11 3% 8%  
12 4% 4%  
13 0.3% 0.9%  
14 0.4% 0.5%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.6%  
2 1.0% 99.6%  
3 11% 98.5%  
4 4% 87%  
5 20% 83%  
6 16% 64% Median
7 27% 47%  
8 5% 20%  
9 10% 15%  
10 3% 5%  
11 1.2% 2%  
12 0.7% 0.9%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 0% 97%  
2 4% 97%  
3 6% 93%  
4 19% 88% Last Result
5 5% 69%  
6 11% 63%  
7 20% 52% Median
8 25% 32%  
9 4% 7%  
10 2% 3%  
11 1.1% 1.2%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 4%  
2 0% 0.8%  
3 0.2% 0.8%  
4 0.3% 0.5%  
5 0.2% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 71 81% 66–77 65–78 64–80 61–82
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 70 70% 65–75 63–76 62–78 59–80
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 70 70% 65–75 63–76 62–78 59–80
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 70 71% 64–75 63–76 62–77 60–80
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 63 18% 59–69 57–71 56–72 54–74
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 64 18% 59–69 57–71 56–72 54–74
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 59 2% 54–64 52–65 51–67 49–69
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox 57 58 0.8% 52–63 51–64 50–66 47–68
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 51 0% 46–57 45–58 44–59 42–61
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 40 0% 36–45 34–46 33–48 31–50

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 0.6% 99.3%  
63 1.2% 98.8%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 95%  
66 5% 93%  
67 7% 88%  
68 8% 81% Majority
69 7% 73%  
70 10% 67%  
71 7% 57%  
72 7% 50% Median
73 13% 42%  
74 7% 30% Last Result
75 6% 23%  
76 6% 16%  
77 4% 10%  
78 2% 7%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.4% 3%  
81 0.3% 1.2%  
82 0.5% 0.9%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1%  
86 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.5% 99.4%  
61 1.3% 98.8%  
62 1.4% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 3% 94%  
65 4% 91%  
66 6% 87%  
67 11% 81%  
68 9% 70% Majority
69 9% 61%  
70 7% 52% Last Result
71 11% 45% Median
72 6% 34%  
73 7% 27%  
74 6% 20%  
75 6% 15%  
76 4% 9%  
77 1.5% 5%  
78 0.9% 3%  
79 1.4% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.8%  
60 0.6% 99.4%  
61 1.2% 98.9%  
62 1.4% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 3% 94%  
65 4% 91%  
66 6% 87%  
67 11% 81%  
68 9% 70% Majority
69 9% 61%  
70 6% 52% Last Result
71 11% 46% Median
72 6% 34%  
73 7% 28%  
74 6% 21%  
75 6% 15%  
76 4% 9%  
77 2% 5%  
78 0.9% 3%  
79 1.5% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.8%  
81 0.2% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 0.6% 99.7%  
61 0.9% 99.1%  
62 2% 98%  
63 3% 96%  
64 5% 93%  
65 4% 88%  
66 5% 84%  
67 8% 79%  
68 10% 71% Majority
69 7% 62%  
70 12% 55%  
71 10% 42% Median
72 6% 33%  
73 6% 26%  
74 8% 20%  
75 4% 12%  
76 4% 8%  
77 1.3% 4%  
78 1.1% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.4%  
80 0.3% 0.8%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.4% 99.5%  
55 0.6% 99.1%  
56 1.1% 98%  
57 3% 97%  
58 3% 95%  
59 4% 91%  
60 7% 87%  
61 9% 80%  
62 10% 71%  
63 11% 61%  
64 8% 50% Median
65 8% 42%  
66 10% 34% Last Result
67 6% 24%  
68 5% 18% Majority
69 3% 13%  
70 4% 9%  
71 2% 5%  
72 2% 4%  
73 0.7% 2%  
74 0.8% 1.2%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.4% 99.5%  
55 0.6% 99.1%  
56 1.1% 98.6%  
57 3% 97%  
58 3% 95%  
59 4% 91%  
60 7% 88%  
61 9% 81%  
62 11% 72%  
63 11% 61%  
64 8% 50% Median
65 8% 42%  
66 10% 34% Last Result
67 6% 25%  
68 5% 18% Majority
69 3% 13%  
70 4% 10%  
71 2% 6%  
72 2% 4%  
73 0.7% 2%  
74 0.8% 1.2%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.8%  
49 0.7% 99.7%  
50 1.3% 99.0%  
51 2% 98%  
52 2% 96%  
53 3% 94%  
54 5% 91%  
55 6% 85%  
56 9% 80%  
57 7% 71%  
58 11% 64% Median
59 7% 53%  
60 11% 46%  
61 11% 36%  
62 5% 25%  
63 9% 20%  
64 3% 11%  
65 4% 8% Last Result
66 1.4% 4%  
67 1.1% 3%  
68 0.5% 2% Majority
69 0.6% 1.0%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 0.6% 99.5%  
49 0.9% 98.8%  
50 2% 98%  
51 3% 96%  
52 5% 93%  
53 5% 89%  
54 9% 84%  
55 8% 74%  
56 9% 67% Median
57 6% 57% Last Result
58 10% 52%  
59 9% 41%  
60 8% 32%  
61 9% 24%  
62 3% 15%  
63 3% 12%  
64 4% 8%  
65 2% 5%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.6% 1.5%  
68 0.6% 0.8% Majority
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 0.8% 99.5%  
43 1.2% 98.8%  
44 2% 98%  
45 4% 96%  
46 5% 92%  
47 4% 87%  
48 8% 83%  
49 7% 75%  
50 10% 68% Median
51 11% 58%  
52 9% 47%  
53 11% 38%  
54 6% 27%  
55 6% 21%  
56 5% 15%  
57 3% 10% Last Result
58 4% 7%  
59 1.3% 3%  
60 0.9% 2%  
61 0.5% 1.0%  
62 0.3% 0.5%  
63 0.1% 0.2%  
64 0% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.1% 99.9%  
31 0.9% 99.8%  
32 0.4% 98.9%  
33 2% 98%  
34 3% 97%  
35 4% 94%  
36 10% 90%  
37 8% 81%  
38 8% 73%  
39 6% 65%  
40 11% 59% Last Result
41 9% 48% Median
42 12% 39%  
43 10% 27%  
44 5% 17%  
45 5% 11%  
46 2% 6%  
47 1.4% 4%  
48 1.0% 3%  
49 1.0% 2%  
50 0.3% 0.7%  
51 0.1% 0.4%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations