Opinion Poll by NC Report for La Razón, 25–30 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 21.3% | 19.3–23.4% | 18.8–24.0% | 18.4–24.5% | 17.5–25.5% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 19.7% | 17.8–21.7% | 17.3–22.3% | 16.8–22.8% | 16.0–23.8% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.7% | 17.8–21.7% | 17.3–22.3% | 16.8–22.8% | 16.0–23.8% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 10.8% | 9.4–12.4% | 9.0–12.9% | 8.7–13.3% | 8.0–14.2% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.7–8.2% | 5.4–8.6% | 5.2–9.0% | 4.7–9.7% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 6.7% | 5.6–8.1% | 5.3–8.5% | 5.1–8.8% | 4.6–9.5% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.8–7.1% | 4.5–7.5% | 4.3–7.8% | 3.9–8.5% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.6–6.8% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.1–7.5% | 3.6–8.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 31 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 28–37 | 26–39 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 26 | 24–30 | 24–31 | 23–31 | 22–32 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 31 | 29–35 | 27–36 | 26–37 | 25–39 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 14 | 12–17 | 12–18 | 12–18 | 10–19 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 5–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 4–12 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 9 | 7–10 | 6–11 | 6–12 | 5–12 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 6–9 | 5–10 | 4–10 | 4–11 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 28 | 6% | 98% | |
| 29 | 8% | 92% | |
| 30 | 13% | 84% | |
| 31 | 22% | 71% | Median |
| 32 | 10% | 49% | Last Result |
| 33 | 13% | 40% | |
| 34 | 10% | 26% | |
| 35 | 9% | 17% | |
| 36 | 4% | 7% | |
| 37 | 2% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 22 | 0.9% | 99.6% | |
| 23 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 24 | 8% | 97% | |
| 25 | 20% | 89% | |
| 26 | 30% | 69% | Median |
| 27 | 11% | 39% | |
| 28 | 9% | 28% | |
| 29 | 5% | 19% | |
| 30 | 8% | 14% | |
| 31 | 4% | 6% | |
| 32 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 27 | 2% | 96% | |
| 28 | 3% | 94% | |
| 29 | 9% | 91% | |
| 30 | 7% | 82% | |
| 31 | 29% | 75% | Median |
| 32 | 18% | 46% | |
| 33 | 8% | 28% | |
| 34 | 8% | 19% | Last Result |
| 35 | 5% | 12% | |
| 36 | 3% | 7% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.3% | 1.0% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 99.5% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 99.1% | |
| 12 | 10% | 98.5% | |
| 13 | 23% | 89% | |
| 14 | 32% | 66% | Median |
| 15 | 5% | 34% | |
| 16 | 16% | 29% | |
| 17 | 6% | 14% | |
| 18 | 6% | 7% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 5 | 10% | 99.3% | |
| 6 | 11% | 90% | |
| 7 | 25% | 79% | |
| 8 | 34% | 53% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 8% | 19% | |
| 10 | 7% | 11% | |
| 11 | 3% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 99.9% | Last Result |
| 5 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 3% | 98% | |
| 7 | 25% | 95% | |
| 8 | 6% | 70% | |
| 9 | 37% | 63% | Median |
| 10 | 17% | 27% | |
| 11 | 6% | 10% | |
| 12 | 4% | 4% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 5 | 4% | 97% | |
| 6 | 5% | 93% | |
| 7 | 22% | 88% | |
| 8 | 45% | 66% | Median |
| 9 | 14% | 21% | |
| 10 | 4% | 7% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 2% | 97% | |
| 5 | 18% | 95% | |
| 6 | 19% | 78% | |
| 7 | 40% | 59% | Median |
| 8 | 4% | 19% | |
| 9 | 13% | 15% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 71 | 90% | 67–75 | 66–76 | 66–77 | 64–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 71 | 89% | 67–75 | 66–76 | 65–77 | 64–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 66 | 31% | 62–70 | 62–71 | 61–72 | 59–74 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 63 | 8% | 60–67 | 59–68 | 58–69 | 56–71 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 57 | 0% | 54–61 | 53–62 | 52–63 | 50–65 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 56 | 0% | 53–60 | 52–61 | 51–62 | 49–64 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 50 | 0% | 46–53 | 45–54 | 44–55 | 42–57 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 39 | 0% | 36–43 | 35–44 | 35–45 | 33–47 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 1.3% | 99.1% | |
| 66 | 3% | 98% | |
| 67 | 5% | 95% | |
| 68 | 7% | 90% | Majority |
| 69 | 10% | 82% | |
| 70 | 15% | 73% | Last Result, Median |
| 71 | 13% | 58% | |
| 72 | 11% | 44% | |
| 73 | 13% | 34% | |
| 74 | 9% | 21% | |
| 75 | 6% | 12% | |
| 76 | 3% | 6% | |
| 77 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 66 | 3% | 97% | |
| 67 | 5% | 94% | |
| 68 | 10% | 89% | Majority |
| 69 | 10% | 79% | |
| 70 | 16% | 69% | Median |
| 71 | 10% | 53% | |
| 72 | 12% | 43% | |
| 73 | 11% | 31% | |
| 74 | 8% | 20% | Last Result |
| 75 | 6% | 12% | |
| 76 | 3% | 6% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 1.3% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 1.2% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 3% | 98% | |
| 62 | 6% | 95% | |
| 63 | 9% | 89% | |
| 64 | 12% | 80% | |
| 65 | 11% | 68% | Median |
| 66 | 13% | 57% | |
| 67 | 13% | 44% | |
| 68 | 11% | 31% | Majority |
| 69 | 8% | 20% | |
| 70 | 5% | 11% | |
| 71 | 3% | 7% | |
| 72 | 2% | 4% | |
| 73 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54 | 0% | 100% | |
| 55 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98% | |
| 59 | 4% | 96% | |
| 60 | 8% | 92% | |
| 61 | 9% | 84% | |
| 62 | 12% | 75% | Median |
| 63 | 14% | 62% | |
| 64 | 15% | 49% | |
| 65 | 11% | 34% | |
| 66 | 9% | 23% | Last Result |
| 67 | 7% | 14% | |
| 68 | 4% | 8% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.7% | 99.5% | |
| 51 | 1.0% | 98.8% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98% | |
| 53 | 3% | 96% | |
| 54 | 6% | 93% | |
| 55 | 9% | 87% | |
| 56 | 21% | 79% | |
| 57 | 15% | 58% | Median |
| 58 | 14% | 43% | |
| 59 | 11% | 28% | |
| 60 | 7% | 18% | |
| 61 | 4% | 11% | |
| 62 | 3% | 6% | |
| 63 | 2% | 3% | |
| 64 | 0.5% | 1.0% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 51 | 3% | 98% | |
| 52 | 4% | 95% | |
| 53 | 8% | 91% | |
| 54 | 12% | 82% | |
| 55 | 11% | 71% | |
| 56 | 10% | 59% | Median |
| 57 | 13% | 50% | Last Result |
| 58 | 14% | 37% | |
| 59 | 10% | 23% | |
| 60 | 5% | 13% | |
| 61 | 4% | 7% | |
| 62 | 2% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 42 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 45 | 3% | 97% | |
| 46 | 5% | 93% | |
| 47 | 9% | 89% | |
| 48 | 13% | 80% | |
| 49 | 16% | 67% | Median |
| 50 | 11% | 51% | |
| 51 | 15% | 40% | |
| 52 | 11% | 25% | |
| 53 | 7% | 13% | |
| 54 | 3% | 7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 4% | |
| 56 | 0.5% | 1.2% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 35 | 4% | 98% | |
| 36 | 10% | 94% | |
| 37 | 11% | 85% | |
| 38 | 13% | 74% | |
| 39 | 14% | 61% | Median |
| 40 | 13% | 48% | Last Result |
| 41 | 11% | 35% | |
| 42 | 10% | 24% | |
| 43 | 7% | 14% | |
| 44 | 4% | 7% | |
| 45 | 1.3% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 47 | 0.4% | 0.8% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: NC Report
- Commissioner(s): La Razón
- Fieldwork period: 25–30 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 687
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.49%