Opinion Poll by Sigma Dos for Antena 3, 31 January 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 22.5% | 20.9–24.3% | 20.4–24.8% | 20.0–25.2% | 19.3–26.1% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 21.2% | 19.6–22.9% | 19.2–23.4% | 18.8–23.9% | 18.0–24.7% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 20.7% | 19.1–22.4% | 18.7–22.9% | 18.3–23.3% | 17.6–24.2% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 10.3% | 9.2–11.6% | 8.8–12.0% | 8.6–12.3% | 8.0–13.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.3–8.5% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.8–9.1% | 5.4–9.7% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.5–6.3% | 4.3–6.6% | 4.1–6.9% | 3.7–7.4% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.1% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.6% | 3.6–7.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 31 | 27–33 | 27–34 | 26–34 | 26–35 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 31 | 29–34 | 28–35 | 28–35 | 27–37 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 32 | 30–35 | 30–36 | 29–37 | 27–39 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 13 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 9–18 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 | 5–11 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 3–10 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 4–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 4–9 |
| Vox | 0 | 6 | 4–7 | 3–7 | 3–9 | 3–9 |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 26 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 27 | 7% | 96% | |
| 28 | 6% | 89% | |
| 29 | 12% | 82% | |
| 30 | 18% | 70% | |
| 31 | 28% | 52% | Median |
| 32 | 13% | 24% | |
| 33 | 6% | 11% | |
| 34 | 4% | 5% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 8% | 98.6% | |
| 29 | 17% | 91% | |
| 30 | 12% | 74% | |
| 31 | 13% | 61% | Median |
| 32 | 17% | 48% | Last Result |
| 33 | 6% | 32% | |
| 34 | 16% | 25% | |
| 35 | 7% | 9% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 2% | 98% | |
| 30 | 6% | 96% | |
| 31 | 25% | 90% | |
| 32 | 19% | 65% | Median |
| 33 | 14% | 46% | |
| 34 | 13% | 32% | Last Result |
| 35 | 9% | 19% | |
| 36 | 6% | 10% | |
| 37 | 3% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 39 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.8% | 99.5% | |
| 11 | 1.4% | 98.7% | |
| 12 | 16% | 97% | |
| 13 | 42% | 82% | Median |
| 14 | 28% | 39% | |
| 15 | 4% | 12% | |
| 16 | 6% | 7% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 97% | |
| 7 | 20% | 91% | |
| 8 | 43% | 71% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 11% | 28% | |
| 10 | 13% | 16% | |
| 11 | 4% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 99.1% | Last Result |
| 5 | 13% | 98% | |
| 6 | 22% | 85% | |
| 7 | 51% | 63% | Median |
| 8 | 4% | 12% | |
| 9 | 8% | 9% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 11% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 5 | 8% | 89% | |
| 6 | 14% | 81% | |
| 7 | 32% | 67% | Median |
| 8 | 32% | 34% | |
| 9 | 2% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 3% | 92% | |
| 5 | 31% | 89% | |
| 6 | 23% | 58% | Median |
| 7 | 31% | 35% | |
| 8 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 72 | 97% | 69–75 | 68–76 | 67–77 | 66–79 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 71 | 91% | 68–74 | 67–75 | 66–76 | 64–78 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 70 | 82% | 67–73 | 66–74 | 65–75 | 63–76 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 64 | 7% | 61–67 | 60–68 | 59–69 | 58–71 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 59 | 0% | 55–61 | 54–62 | 53–63 | 52–65 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 56 | 0% | 53–59 | 52–60 | 51–61 | 50–62 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 51 | 0% | 47–53 | 46–54 | 46–55 | 44–56 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 40 | 0% | 36–43 | 36–43 | 35–44 | 34–45 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 68 | 3% | 97% | Majority |
| 69 | 10% | 94% | |
| 70 | 13% | 84% | |
| 71 | 13% | 71% | Median |
| 72 | 12% | 58% | |
| 73 | 16% | 45% | |
| 74 | 13% | 30% | Last Result |
| 75 | 9% | 17% | |
| 76 | 4% | 9% | |
| 77 | 3% | 4% | |
| 78 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 79 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 80 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 82 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 65 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 67 | 6% | 97% | |
| 68 | 12% | 91% | Majority |
| 69 | 12% | 79% | |
| 70 | 16% | 68% | Last Result, Median |
| 71 | 12% | 52% | |
| 72 | 13% | 39% | |
| 73 | 12% | 27% | |
| 74 | 9% | 15% | |
| 75 | 3% | 6% | |
| 76 | 2% | 3% | |
| 77 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 78 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 99.2% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98% | |
| 66 | 4% | 97% | |
| 67 | 10% | 93% | |
| 68 | 15% | 82% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 67% | |
| 70 | 18% | 54% | Median |
| 71 | 10% | 36% | |
| 72 | 12% | 27% | |
| 73 | 9% | 15% | |
| 74 | 3% | 6% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 1.4% | |
| 77 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 78 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 59 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 60 | 4% | 96% | |
| 61 | 9% | 92% | |
| 62 | 12% | 83% | |
| 63 | 13% | 71% | Median |
| 64 | 14% | 58% | |
| 65 | 14% | 44% | |
| 66 | 16% | 31% | Last Result |
| 67 | 7% | 14% | |
| 68 | 3% | 7% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 4% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 2% | |
| 71 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 72 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 73 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 74 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 52 | 1.1% | 99.7% | |
| 53 | 1.2% | 98.6% | |
| 54 | 3% | 97% | |
| 55 | 4% | 94% | |
| 56 | 12% | 90% | |
| 57 | 13% | 78% | |
| 58 | 12% | 65% | |
| 59 | 20% | 52% | Median |
| 60 | 13% | 33% | |
| 61 | 12% | 20% | |
| 62 | 4% | 8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 4% | |
| 64 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 48 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 50 | 0.6% | 99.5% | |
| 51 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 52 | 4% | 97% | |
| 53 | 7% | 92% | |
| 54 | 12% | 85% | |
| 55 | 11% | 73% | |
| 56 | 12% | 62% | |
| 57 | 21% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 58 | 13% | 29% | |
| 59 | 9% | 17% | |
| 60 | 4% | 7% | |
| 61 | 2% | 3% | |
| 62 | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 64 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 44 | 1.0% | 99.7% | |
| 45 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 46 | 4% | 98% | |
| 47 | 6% | 94% | |
| 48 | 8% | 88% | |
| 49 | 15% | 80% | |
| 50 | 15% | 66% | |
| 51 | 20% | 51% | Median |
| 52 | 14% | 31% | |
| 53 | 10% | 17% | |
| 54 | 4% | 7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 57 | 0.3% | 0.5% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 35 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 36 | 9% | 97% | |
| 37 | 14% | 88% | |
| 38 | 10% | 74% | |
| 39 | 13% | 63% | Median |
| 40 | 13% | 50% | Last Result |
| 41 | 15% | 37% | |
| 42 | 12% | 22% | |
| 43 | 5% | 10% | |
| 44 | 3% | 5% | |
| 45 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Sigma Dos
- Commissioner(s): Antena 3
- Fieldwork period: 31 January 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.68%