Opinion Poll by SocioMétrica for El Español, 18–31 January 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 20.4% 19.4–21.4% 19.2–21.7% 18.9–21.9% 18.5–22.4%
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 20.3% 19.3–21.3% 19.1–21.6% 18.8–21.8% 18.4–22.3%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 19.4% 18.5–20.4% 18.2–20.7% 18.0–20.9% 17.5–21.4%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 11.0% 10.3–11.8% 10.1–12.0% 9.9–12.2% 9.6–12.6%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 7.3% 6.7–8.0% 6.5–8.2% 6.4–8.3% 6.1–8.6%
Vox 0.0% 6.0% 5.5–6.6% 5.3–6.8% 5.2–7.0% 4.9–7.3%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 5.6% 5.1–6.2% 4.9–6.4% 4.8–6.5% 4.6–6.8%
Partit Popular 4.2% 5.5% 5.0–6.1% 4.8–6.3% 4.7–6.4% 4.5–6.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya 34 33 31–35 31–35 31–36 30–37
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 28 26–30 26–30 26–31 25–31
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 29 28–31 28–32 28–32 27–33
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 14 13–16 13–16 13–17 13–18
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 8 7–10 7–10 7–10 7–11
Vox 0 7 7–9 7–9 6–9 6–9
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 8 7–8 7–8 7–8 5–9
Partit Popular 4 7 6–7 5–7 5–9 5–9

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
30 0.5% 100%  
31 18% 99.5%  
32 17% 81%  
33 38% 65% Median
34 17% 27% Last Result
35 8% 10%  
36 2% 3%  
37 0.9% 1.1%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 2% 100%  
26 21% 98%  
27 21% 77%  
28 20% 56% Median
29 13% 36%  
30 20% 23%  
31 3% 3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 2% 99.9%  
28 25% 98%  
29 28% 73% Median
30 31% 46%  
31 9% 15%  
32 5% 6% Last Result
33 0.6% 0.8%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 12% 99.9%  
14 40% 88% Median
15 22% 48%  
16 23% 27%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.9% 0.9%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
6 0.3% 100%  
7 10% 99.6%  
8 63% 90% Last Result, Median
9 14% 27%  
10 13% 14%  
11 0.5% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0.4% 100%  
6 4% 99.6%  
7 65% 96% Median
8 8% 30%  
9 22% 22%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0.1% 100% Last Result
5 0.5% 99.9%  
6 1.3% 99.4%  
7 36% 98%  
8 60% 62% Median
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 7% 100%  
6 20% 93%  
7 69% 73% Median
8 2% 4%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 71 96% 68–73 68–73 67–74 67–75
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 70 91% 68–72 67–73 67–73 66–74
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 66 7% 64–67 63–68 63–69 62–69
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 66 62 0.1% 60–64 60–65 59–66 59–66
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular 65 58 0% 55–60 55–60 54–61 53–62
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 57 0% 54–59 54–60 54–60 53–61
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 49 0% 47–52 47–52 46–53 45–53
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 38 0% 36–40 36–40 35–40 35–41

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 3% 99.8%  
68 8% 96% Majority
69 18% 88%  
70 19% 70% Median
71 21% 51%  
72 15% 30%  
73 11% 15%  
74 3% 4% Last Result
75 0.7% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.9% 99.9%  
67 8% 99.0%  
68 13% 91% Majority
69 21% 78%  
70 18% 57% Last Result, Median
71 23% 39%  
72 10% 16%  
73 5% 6%  
74 1.3% 2%  
75 0.2% 0.2%  
76 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 100%  
62 2% 99.7%  
63 5% 98%  
64 17% 92%  
65 19% 76% Median
66 27% 57%  
67 23% 30%  
68 4% 7% Majority
69 3% 3%  
70 0.4% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.3% 100%  
59 5% 99.7%  
60 10% 95%  
61 19% 85%  
62 18% 65% Median
63 26% 47%  
64 13% 21%  
65 5% 8%  
66 3% 3% Last Result
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1% Majority
69 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.6% 99.9%  
54 3% 99.3%  
55 7% 96%  
56 13% 90%  
57 26% 77% Median
58 19% 51%  
59 17% 32%  
60 11% 15%  
61 4% 5%  
62 0.6% 0.7%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0% Last Result

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.4% 100%  
53 2% 99.5%  
54 9% 98%  
55 13% 89%  
56 18% 76% Median
57 20% 58% Last Result
58 20% 38%  
59 11% 18%  
60 6% 7%  
61 0.7% 0.7%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.8% 99.9%  
46 4% 99.1%  
47 11% 95%  
48 14% 84%  
49 24% 70% Median
50 20% 46%  
51 15% 26%  
52 8% 11%  
53 3% 4%  
54 0.3% 0.3%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 3% 99.8%  
36 18% 97%  
37 28% 79% Median
38 26% 51%  
39 11% 25%  
40 12% 14% Last Result
41 2% 2%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations