Opinion Poll by DYM for Henneo, 29 January–2 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 22.7% | 21.2–24.3% | 20.8–24.7% | 20.5–25.1% | 19.8–25.9% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 22.1% | 20.6–23.6% | 20.2–24.1% | 19.9–24.5% | 19.2–25.2% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 19.2% | 17.8–20.7% | 17.5–21.1% | 17.1–21.5% | 16.5–22.2% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 10.6% | 9.5–11.8% | 9.2–12.1% | 9.0–12.4% | 8.5–13.0% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.1–8.6% | 5.9–8.8% | 5.5–9.3% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.3–7.0% | 5.0–7.3% | 4.8–7.5% | 4.5–8.0% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 5.8% | 5.0–6.7% | 4.8–7.0% | 4.6–7.2% | 4.3–7.7% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.6–4.7% | 2.4–5.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 31 | 28–33 | 28–34 | 27–35 | 26–36 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 36 | 33–38 | 32–39 | 31–39 | 31–40 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 29 | 27–31 | 26–32 | 25–33 | 24–34 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 14 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 12–17 | 12–18 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 4–11 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 4–10 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 3 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 28 | 6% | 96% | |
| 29 | 8% | 90% | |
| 30 | 13% | 82% | |
| 31 | 29% | 68% | Median |
| 32 | 22% | 40% | |
| 33 | 8% | 18% | |
| 34 | 6% | 9% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 31 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 5% | 96% | |
| 33 | 11% | 90% | |
| 34 | 11% | 80% | Last Result |
| 35 | 16% | 68% | |
| 36 | 17% | 52% | Median |
| 37 | 22% | 35% | |
| 38 | 8% | 14% | |
| 39 | 4% | 6% | |
| 40 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 26 | 7% | 97% | |
| 27 | 9% | 91% | |
| 28 | 27% | 81% | |
| 29 | 21% | 54% | Median |
| 30 | 16% | 34% | |
| 31 | 10% | 17% | |
| 32 | 5% | 8% | Last Result |
| 33 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 9% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 37% | 91% | |
| 14 | 36% | 54% | Median |
| 15 | 7% | 18% | |
| 16 | 7% | 11% | |
| 17 | 3% | 4% | |
| 18 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 98% | |
| 7 | 22% | 95% | |
| 8 | 37% | 73% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 26% | 35% | |
| 10 | 7% | 9% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.5% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 6 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 20% | 96% | |
| 8 | 55% | 76% | Median |
| 9 | 17% | 21% | |
| 10 | 3% | 4% | |
| 11 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 7% | 99.1% | |
| 6 | 20% | 92% | |
| 7 | 50% | 72% | Median |
| 8 | 9% | 22% | |
| 9 | 12% | 13% | |
| 10 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12% | 100% | |
| 1 | 0% | 88% | |
| 2 | 16% | 88% | |
| 3 | 56% | 72% | Median |
| 4 | 6% | 15% | Last Result |
| 5 | 9% | 10% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 72 | 98% | 69–75 | 69–76 | 68–77 | 66–78 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 72 | 98% | 69–75 | 69–76 | 68–76 | 66–78 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 68 | 58% | 65–71 | 64–72 | 63–73 | 62–74 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 66 | 65 | 6% | 61–67 | 61–68 | 60–68 | 58–70 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 56 | 0% | 53–59 | 52–59 | 52–60 | 50–62 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular | 57 | 55 | 0% | 52–57 | 51–59 | 50–59 | 49–61 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 48 | 0% | 45–51 | 44–52 | 44–52 | 42–54 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 37 | 0% | 35–40 | 34–40 | 33–41 | 32–42 |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 95% | |
| 70 | 9% | 89% | Last Result |
| 71 | 15% | 80% | |
| 72 | 17% | 65% | |
| 73 | 19% | 48% | Median |
| 74 | 15% | 29% | |
| 75 | 7% | 13% | |
| 76 | 4% | 7% | |
| 77 | 2% | 3% | |
| 78 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 67 | 1.0% | 99.3% | |
| 68 | 3% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 95% | |
| 70 | 7% | 89% | |
| 71 | 16% | 82% | |
| 72 | 16% | 66% | |
| 73 | 16% | 50% | Median |
| 74 | 14% | 34% | Last Result |
| 75 | 13% | 20% | |
| 76 | 4% | 6% | |
| 77 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.5% | 0.8% | |
| 79 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 80 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 81 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 62 | 0.8% | 99.8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 64 | 5% | 97% | |
| 65 | 7% | 93% | |
| 66 | 12% | 86% | |
| 67 | 16% | 74% | |
| 68 | 13% | 58% | Median, Majority |
| 69 | 17% | 44% | |
| 70 | 11% | 27% | |
| 71 | 8% | 16% | |
| 72 | 5% | 8% | |
| 73 | 2% | 3% | |
| 74 | 0.9% | 1.3% | |
| 75 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 59 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98% | |
| 61 | 7% | 96% | |
| 62 | 8% | 89% | |
| 63 | 17% | 81% | |
| 64 | 14% | 64% | |
| 65 | 22% | 50% | Median |
| 66 | 14% | 28% | Last Result |
| 67 | 9% | 15% | |
| 68 | 4% | 6% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 70 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 71 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 73 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 51 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 52 | 5% | 98% | |
| 53 | 6% | 92% | |
| 54 | 12% | 86% | |
| 55 | 23% | 74% | |
| 56 | 18% | 51% | Median |
| 57 | 13% | 33% | |
| 58 | 9% | 20% | |
| 59 | 6% | 11% | |
| 60 | 3% | 5% | |
| 61 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 62 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 0.5% | 99.7% | |
| 50 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 51 | 4% | 97% | |
| 52 | 11% | 93% | |
| 53 | 15% | 82% | |
| 54 | 16% | 67% | |
| 55 | 18% | 51% | Median |
| 56 | 15% | 33% | |
| 57 | 8% | 18% | Last Result |
| 58 | 5% | 10% | |
| 59 | 3% | 5% | |
| 60 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 61 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 62 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 99.3% | |
| 44 | 5% | 98% | |
| 45 | 8% | 93% | |
| 46 | 20% | 85% | |
| 47 | 13% | 65% | |
| 48 | 21% | 52% | Median |
| 49 | 13% | 31% | |
| 50 | 8% | 18% | |
| 51 | 5% | 11% | |
| 52 | 3% | 5% | |
| 53 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 54 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 55 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 99.6% | |
| 33 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 34 | 5% | 96% | |
| 35 | 12% | 90% | |
| 36 | 21% | 78% | |
| 37 | 17% | 57% | Median |
| 38 | 19% | 40% | |
| 39 | 10% | 22% | |
| 40 | 7% | 11% | Last Result |
| 41 | 3% | 4% | |
| 42 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 43 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: DYM
- Commissioner(s): Henneo
- Fieldwork period: 29 January–2 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1259
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.31%