Opinion Poll by CIS, 1–3 February 2021

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 13.9% 23.7% 22.5–25.0% 22.1–25.4% 21.8–25.7% 21.2–26.4%
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 21.4% 19.9% 18.7–21.2% 18.4–21.5% 18.1–21.8% 17.6–22.4%
Junts per Catalunya 21.7% 14.6% 13.6–15.7% 13.3–16.0% 13.0–16.3% 12.6–16.8%
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 7.5% 8.9% 8.1–9.8% 7.9–10.1% 7.7–10.3% 7.3–10.8%
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 25.4% 7.9% 7.1–8.8% 6.9–9.0% 6.7–9.2% 6.4–9.6%
Vox 0.0% 6.9% 6.2–7.7% 6.0–8.0% 5.8–8.2% 5.5–8.6%
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4.5% 6.8% 6.1–7.6% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.0% 5.4–8.5%
Partit Popular 4.2% 5.8% 5.2–6.6% 5.0–6.8% 4.8–7.0% 4.5–7.4%
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0.0% 1.5% 1.2–2.0% 1.1–2.1% 1.1–2.2% 0.9–2.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) 17 34 31–35 31–36 30–36 30–37
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí 32 31 29–33 28–33 28–34 27–35
Junts per Catalunya 34 23 22–25 22–26 21–26 20–28
Catalunya en Comú–Podem 8 11 10–13 10–13 9–13 8–14
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía 36 11 8–12 8–12 8–12 8–13
Vox 0 9 8–10 7–11 7–11 7–12
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 4 9 8–10 8–11 8–11 7–11
Partit Popular 4 7 6–9 6–9 6–9 5–9
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 0 0 0 0 0 0

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100% Last Result
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 100%  
20 0% 100%  
21 0% 100%  
22 0% 100%  
23 0% 100%  
24 0% 100%  
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0.3% 100%  
30 2% 99.7%  
31 9% 97%  
32 11% 89%  
33 22% 77%  
34 31% 55% Median
35 15% 25%  
36 7% 9%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.3% 0.4%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
26 0.1% 100%  
27 1.2% 99.9%  
28 6% 98.7%  
29 13% 93%  
30 27% 80%  
31 14% 53% Median
32 25% 39% Last Result
33 9% 14%  
34 3% 5%  
35 1.2% 1.5%  
36 0.3% 0.3%  
37 0% 0%  

Junts per Catalunya

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.3% 99.8%  
21 4% 99.5%  
22 9% 96%  
23 45% 87% Median
24 12% 42%  
25 23% 30%  
26 5% 7%  
27 0.8% 2%  
28 0.7% 0.8%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0% Last Result

Catalunya en Comú–Podem

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 2% 100% Last Result
9 2% 98%  
10 30% 97%  
11 48% 67% Median
12 7% 19%  
13 11% 11%  
14 0.8% 0.9%  
15 0% 0%  

Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.2% 100%  
8 10% 99.8%  
9 13% 90%  
10 8% 77%  
11 37% 69% Median
12 31% 33%  
13 1.1% 1.1%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0%  
24 0% 0%  
25 0% 0%  
26 0% 0%  
27 0% 0%  
28 0% 0%  
29 0% 0%  
30 0% 0%  
31 0% 0%  
32 0% 0%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0% Last Result

Vox

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0.1% 100%  
7 6% 99.9%  
8 6% 93%  
9 64% 88% Median
10 14% 23%  
11 8% 9%  
12 0.7% 0.7%  
13 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.9% 100%  
8 36% 99.1%  
9 32% 63% Median
10 26% 31%  
11 6% 6%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
4 0% 100% Last Result
5 1.2% 100%  
6 11% 98.8%  
7 64% 88% Median
8 10% 23%  
9 13% 13%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 57 75 100% 73–78 72–79 72–79 71–80
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 74 65 12% 63–68 63–68 62–69 61–71
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular 70 63 1.3% 62–65 61–66 60–67 59–68
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 70 63 1.3% 62–65 61–66 60–67 59–69
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 65 63 0.2% 60–64 59–65 59–66 58–67
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular 57 61 0% 59–63 57–63 57–64 55–65
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya 66 55 0% 52–57 52–57 51–58 50–59
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català 66 55 0% 52–57 52–57 51–58 50–59
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular 57 52 0% 49–54 48–54 48–55 46–56
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem 40 42 0% 40–44 39–45 38–45 38–47

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100% Last Result
58 0% 100%  
59 0% 100%  
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 100%  
62 0% 100%  
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 100%  
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 100% Majority
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 0.6% 99.5%  
72 4% 99.0%  
73 12% 95%  
74 23% 83%  
75 18% 60%  
76 10% 42% Median
77 20% 32%  
78 7% 12%  
79 3% 5%  
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.3% 100%  
61 1.2% 99.7%  
62 3% 98%  
63 11% 95%  
64 12% 84%  
65 22% 72% Median
66 28% 50%  
67 10% 22%  
68 8% 12% Majority
69 3% 4%  
70 0.7% 1.3%  
71 0.4% 0.6%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 1.0% 99.7%  
60 3% 98.7%  
61 5% 96%  
62 17% 90%  
63 30% 73% Median
64 16% 44%  
65 17% 27%  
66 5% 10%  
67 4% 5%  
68 0.8% 1.3% Majority
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
71 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 1.0% 99.7%  
60 3% 98.7%  
61 5% 96%  
62 17% 90%  
63 29% 73% Median
64 17% 44%  
65 17% 27%  
66 5% 10%  
67 4% 5%  
68 0.8% 1.3% Majority
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0.1% 0.1% Last Result
71 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 1.4% 99.7%  
59 5% 98%  
60 6% 93%  
61 20% 88%  
62 14% 67%  
63 27% 53% Median
64 17% 27%  
65 7% 10% Last Result
66 1.4% 3%  
67 1.2% 1.4%  
68 0.2% 0.2% Majority
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.9%  
56 0.7% 99.5%  
57 4% 98.7% Last Result
58 4% 95%  
59 16% 91%  
60 15% 75%  
61 33% 60% Median
62 16% 27%  
63 7% 11%  
64 3% 4%  
65 0.7% 1.0%  
66 0.3% 0.3%  
67 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 0.8% 99.6%  
51 3% 98.8%  
52 10% 96%  
53 16% 86%  
54 15% 70% Median
55 33% 55%  
56 11% 23%  
57 6% 11%  
58 4% 5%  
59 0.9% 1.3%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 0.8% 99.6%  
51 3% 98.8%  
52 10% 96%  
53 16% 86%  
54 15% 70% Median
55 33% 55%  
56 11% 23%  
57 6% 11%  
58 4% 5%  
59 0.9% 1.3%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  
63 0% 0%  
64 0% 0%  
65 0% 0%  
66 0% 0% Last Result

Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.9% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.0%  
48 5% 98%  
49 6% 94%  
50 14% 88%  
51 18% 74%  
52 33% 56% Median
53 13% 24%  
54 8% 11%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.8% 1.1%  
57 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
58 0% 0%  

Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.4% 99.9%  
38 3% 99.5%  
39 5% 96%  
40 19% 91% Last Result
41 14% 72%  
42 23% 59% Median
43 23% 35%  
44 6% 12%  
45 5% 7%  
46 1.2% 2%  
47 0.5% 0.8%  
48 0.3% 0.3%  
49 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations