Opinion Poll by Hamalgama Métrica for OKDiario, 1–4 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 20.3% | 18.7–22.0% | 18.3–22.5% | 17.9–22.9% | 17.2–23.7% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 20.2% | 18.6–21.9% | 18.2–22.4% | 17.8–22.8% | 17.1–23.6% |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 20.0% | 18.4–21.7% | 18.0–22.2% | 17.6–22.6% | 16.9–23.4% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 11.8% | 10.6–13.2% | 10.2–13.6% | 9.9–14.0% | 9.4–14.7% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2–8.4% | 6.0–8.7% | 5.7–9.0% | 5.3–9.6% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.0–6.9% | 4.7–7.2% | 4.5–7.4% | 4.1–8.0% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.3–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% | 4.2–7.0% | 3.8–7.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 32 | 30–35 | 30–36 | 29–37 | 27–39 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 27 | 25–30 | 25–31 | 24–31 | 24–33 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 30 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 27–35 | 25–35 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 16 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 13–19 | 13–19 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 | 5–11 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 7 | 6–9 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 3–10 |
| Vox | 0 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 | 3–10 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 7 | 6–8 | 4–8 | 4–9 | 4–10 |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 28 | 0.9% | 99.0% | |
| 29 | 2% | 98% | |
| 30 | 7% | 96% | |
| 31 | 24% | 89% | |
| 32 | 21% | 65% | Median |
| 33 | 16% | 44% | |
| 34 | 11% | 28% | Last Result |
| 35 | 7% | 16% | |
| 36 | 4% | 9% | |
| 37 | 3% | 5% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 39 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 25 | 12% | 97% | |
| 26 | 26% | 84% | |
| 27 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 28 | 9% | 41% | |
| 29 | 12% | 31% | |
| 30 | 11% | 20% | |
| 31 | 7% | 9% | |
| 32 | 2% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 26 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 27 | 4% | 98.6% | |
| 28 | 16% | 95% | |
| 29 | 16% | 79% | |
| 30 | 19% | 63% | Median |
| 31 | 21% | 44% | |
| 32 | 8% | 23% | Last Result |
| 33 | 8% | 15% | |
| 34 | 4% | 7% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 7% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 23% | 93% | |
| 15 | 16% | 69% | |
| 16 | 27% | 54% | Median |
| 17 | 11% | 27% | |
| 18 | 12% | 16% | |
| 19 | 3% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 98% | |
| 7 | 19% | 94% | |
| 8 | 48% | 75% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 10% | 27% | |
| 10 | 13% | 18% | |
| 11 | 4% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 99.5% | Last Result |
| 5 | 8% | 99.1% | |
| 6 | 18% | 91% | |
| 7 | 49% | 74% | Median |
| 8 | 7% | 25% | |
| 9 | 16% | 18% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 98.8% | |
| 5 | 10% | 98% | |
| 6 | 15% | 88% | |
| 7 | 57% | 73% | Median |
| 8 | 7% | 16% | |
| 9 | 8% | 9% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 7% | 99.8% | Last Result |
| 5 | 3% | 93% | |
| 6 | 14% | 90% | |
| 7 | 33% | 76% | Median |
| 8 | 38% | 43% | |
| 9 | 4% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 71 | 93% | 68–74 | 67–75 | 66–76 | 65–77 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 70 | 82% | 67–73 | 66–74 | 65–75 | 64–77 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 66 | 21% | 63–69 | 62–70 | 61–71 | 60–73 |
| Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 66 | 63 | 2% | 60–66 | 59–67 | 58–67 | 57–70 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 58 | 0% | 55–61 | 55–62 | 54–63 | 52–65 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox | 57 | 57 | 0% | 54–60 | 53–61 | 52–62 | 51–63 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 50 | 0% | 47–53 | 47–54 | 46–55 | 45–57 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 38 | 0% | 36–41 | 35–42 | 34–43 | 33–44 |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 65 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 66 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 67 | 4% | 97% | |
| 68 | 8% | 93% | Majority |
| 69 | 14% | 85% | |
| 70 | 11% | 71% | Median |
| 71 | 18% | 60% | |
| 72 | 15% | 42% | |
| 73 | 15% | 27% | |
| 74 | 4% | 12% | Last Result |
| 75 | 4% | 7% | |
| 76 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 77 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 64 | 0.8% | 99.6% | |
| 65 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 66 | 5% | 97% | |
| 67 | 10% | 92% | |
| 68 | 14% | 82% | Majority |
| 69 | 16% | 68% | Median |
| 70 | 13% | 53% | Last Result |
| 71 | 8% | 40% | |
| 72 | 17% | 31% | |
| 73 | 8% | 14% | |
| 74 | 3% | 6% | |
| 75 | 1.2% | 3% | |
| 76 | 0.8% | 1.4% | |
| 77 | 0.4% | 0.7% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 79 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 60 | 0.6% | 99.6% | |
| 61 | 2% | 99.0% | |
| 62 | 5% | 97% | |
| 63 | 6% | 92% | |
| 64 | 13% | 85% | |
| 65 | 14% | 72% | Median |
| 66 | 17% | 57% | |
| 67 | 20% | 41% | |
| 68 | 8% | 21% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 12% | |
| 70 | 3% | 6% | |
| 71 | 2% | 3% | |
| 72 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 74 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya – Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 56 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 57 | 0.9% | 99.7% | |
| 58 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 59 | 5% | 97% | |
| 60 | 8% | 92% | |
| 61 | 19% | 84% | |
| 62 | 13% | 65% | Median |
| 63 | 12% | 53% | |
| 64 | 14% | 41% | |
| 65 | 16% | 27% | |
| 66 | 5% | 11% | Last Result |
| 67 | 3% | 6% | |
| 68 | 1.1% | 2% | Majority |
| 69 | 0.6% | 1.4% | |
| 70 | 0.5% | 0.7% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 52 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 53 | 0.8% | 99.4% | |
| 54 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 55 | 7% | 96% | |
| 56 | 18% | 89% | |
| 57 | 11% | 72% | |
| 58 | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 59 | 14% | 48% | |
| 60 | 14% | 33% | |
| 61 | 11% | 19% | |
| 62 | 5% | 8% | |
| 63 | 2% | 4% | |
| 64 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 65 | 0.3% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 66 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 67 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 68 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular – Vox
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 51 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 52 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 53 | 4% | 96% | |
| 54 | 6% | 93% | |
| 55 | 16% | 87% | |
| 56 | 17% | 71% | |
| 57 | 13% | 54% | Last Result, Median |
| 58 | 11% | 41% | |
| 59 | 13% | 30% | |
| 60 | 9% | 16% | |
| 61 | 4% | 7% | |
| 62 | 2% | 3% | |
| 63 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 64 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 65 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 66 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 46 | 3% | 98.8% | |
| 47 | 6% | 96% | |
| 48 | 18% | 90% | |
| 49 | 14% | 72% | |
| 50 | 16% | 58% | Median |
| 51 | 15% | 42% | |
| 52 | 10% | 27% | |
| 53 | 10% | 17% | |
| 54 | 4% | 7% | |
| 55 | 2% | 3% | |
| 56 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 57 | 0.4% | 0.6% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 33 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 35 | 4% | 97% | |
| 36 | 12% | 93% | |
| 37 | 15% | 82% | |
| 38 | 20% | 67% | Median |
| 39 | 17% | 46% | |
| 40 | 13% | 30% | Last Result |
| 41 | 9% | 17% | |
| 42 | 4% | 8% | |
| 43 | 2% | 4% | |
| 44 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Hamalgama Métrica
- Commissioner(s): OKDiario
- Fieldwork period: 1–4 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.31%