Opinion Poll by Opinòmetre for Ara, 1–4 February 2021
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 21.4% | 21.8% | 20.0–23.7% | 19.6–24.3% | 19.1–24.8% | 18.3–25.7% |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 13.9% | 20.7% | 19.0–22.6% | 18.5–23.2% | 18.1–23.6% | 17.3–24.6% |
| Junts per Catalunya | 21.7% | 19.8% | 18.1–21.6% | 17.6–22.1% | 17.2–22.6% | 16.4–23.5% |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 25.4% | 8.3% | 7.2–9.7% | 6.9–10.1% | 6.6–10.4% | 6.1–11.1% |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.9–8.1% | 5.6–8.5% | 5.3–8.8% | 4.9–9.4% |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4.5% | 6.6% | 5.6–7.9% | 5.3–8.2% | 5.1–8.5% | 4.7–9.2% |
| Vox | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.1–6.6% | 3.9–6.9% | 3.5–7.5% |
| Partit Popular | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.2–6.2% | 4.0–6.5% | 3.8–6.8% | 3.4–7.3% |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.7–3.8% | 1.4–4.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí | 32 | 34 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 29–39 | 28–40 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) | 17 | 29 | 26–31 | 25–32 | 25–33 | 24–35 |
| Junts per Catalunya | 34 | 32 | 29–35 | 29–36 | 27–37 | 26–38 |
| Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía | 36 | 12 | 9–13 | 8–13 | 8–14 | 8–14 |
| Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 8 | 8 | 6–10 | 5–10 | 5–11 | 5–11 |
| Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 4 | 9 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–11 | 6–13 |
| Vox | 0 | 6 | 5–8 | 4–9 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| Partit Popular | 4 | 6 | 5–8 | 4–8 | 3–9 | 3–10 |
| Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 3% | 98.5% | |
| 30 | 4% | 96% | |
| 31 | 14% | 92% | |
| 32 | 9% | 78% | Last Result |
| 33 | 12% | 68% | |
| 34 | 21% | 56% | Median |
| 35 | 18% | 35% | |
| 36 | 8% | 17% | |
| 37 | 3% | 8% | |
| 38 | 2% | 5% | |
| 39 | 2% | 3% | |
| 40 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 25 | 4% | 98.7% | |
| 26 | 18% | 95% | |
| 27 | 11% | 77% | |
| 28 | 6% | 65% | |
| 29 | 22% | 60% | Median |
| 30 | 21% | 38% | |
| 31 | 10% | 17% | |
| 32 | 4% | 7% | |
| 33 | 1.4% | 3% | |
| 34 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Junts per Catalunya
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Junts per Catalunya page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 27 | 1.5% | 98% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 97% | |
| 29 | 7% | 96% | |
| 30 | 6% | 88% | |
| 31 | 29% | 83% | |
| 32 | 22% | 54% | Median |
| 33 | 12% | 32% | |
| 34 | 7% | 20% | Last Result |
| 35 | 5% | 13% | |
| 36 | 3% | 8% | |
| 37 | 3% | 4% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 1.4% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% |
Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 9% | 99.5% | |
| 9 | 15% | 91% | |
| 10 | 17% | 76% | |
| 11 | 3% | 59% | |
| 12 | 36% | 56% | Median |
| 13 | 16% | 19% | |
| 14 | 3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% | |
| 28 | 0% | 0% | |
| 29 | 0% | 0% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Catalunya en Comú–Podem
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Catalunya en Comú–Podem page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 10% | 94% | |
| 7 | 22% | 84% | |
| 8 | 42% | 62% | Last Result, Median |
| 9 | 10% | 20% | |
| 10 | 7% | 10% | |
| 11 | 3% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Candidatura d’Unitat Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 5 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 5% | 99.0% | |
| 8 | 34% | 94% | |
| 9 | 36% | 60% | Median |
| 10 | 9% | 24% | |
| 11 | 14% | 16% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Vox
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vox page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 2% | 95% | |
| 5 | 26% | 94% | |
| 6 | 18% | 68% | Median |
| 7 | 38% | 50% | |
| 8 | 6% | 12% | |
| 9 | 5% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Popular
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Popular page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 4% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 5 | 34% | 93% | |
| 6 | 13% | 58% | Median |
| 7 | 35% | 45% | |
| 8 | 5% | 10% | |
| 9 | 4% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 40% | 50% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 10% | |
| 3 | 2% | 10% | |
| 4 | 3% | 7% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 70 | 75 | 99.7% | 72–79 | 71–80 | 70–81 | 68–82 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular | 70 | 74 | 99.2% | 71–78 | 70–79 | 69–80 | 67–81 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 74 | 73 | 98% | 70–77 | 69–78 | 68–79 | 66–81 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 57 | 70 | 79% | 66–73 | 65–74 | 64–75 | 63–77 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català | 66 | 66 | 33% | 63–70 | 62–72 | 61–72 | 59–74 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya | 66 | 66 | 21% | 62–69 | 61–71 | 60–72 | 58–73 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular | 65 | 54 | 0% | 50–57 | 49–58 | 48–59 | 47–61 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular | 57 | 52 | 0% | 48–56 | 47–56 | 47–57 | 45–59 |
| Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular | 57 | 46 | 0% | 42–49 | 41–50 | 40–51 | 39–53 |
| Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem | 40 | 41 | 0% | 38–44 | 37–46 | 36–47 | 35–48 |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 67 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 68 | 0.4% | 99.7% | Majority |
| 69 | 1.2% | 99.3% | |
| 70 | 1.3% | 98% | Last Result |
| 71 | 5% | 97% | |
| 72 | 4% | 92% | |
| 73 | 14% | 88% | |
| 74 | 14% | 74% | |
| 75 | 16% | 60% | |
| 76 | 12% | 43% | Median |
| 77 | 12% | 32% | |
| 78 | 6% | 19% | |
| 79 | 6% | 13% | |
| 80 | 4% | 7% | |
| 81 | 2% | 3% | |
| 82 | 0.8% | 1.3% | |
| 83 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Candidatura d’Unitat Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 66 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 67 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 68 | 0.9% | 99.2% | Majority |
| 69 | 2% | 98% | |
| 70 | 3% | 96% | Last Result |
| 71 | 6% | 93% | |
| 72 | 11% | 87% | |
| 73 | 13% | 76% | |
| 74 | 15% | 63% | |
| 75 | 12% | 48% | Median |
| 76 | 15% | 36% | |
| 77 | 8% | 22% | |
| 78 | 6% | 14% | |
| 79 | 3% | 8% | |
| 80 | 2% | 4% | |
| 81 | 2% | 2% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.5% | |
| 83 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 84 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 85 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 65 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 66 | 0.4% | 99.7% | |
| 67 | 1.4% | 99.4% | |
| 68 | 2% | 98% | Majority |
| 69 | 6% | 96% | |
| 70 | 4% | 90% | |
| 71 | 11% | 86% | |
| 72 | 16% | 75% | |
| 73 | 12% | 59% | |
| 74 | 16% | 47% | Last Result, Median |
| 75 | 11% | 31% | |
| 76 | 8% | 20% | |
| 77 | 4% | 11% | |
| 78 | 3% | 7% | |
| 79 | 3% | 5% | |
| 80 | 0.9% | 2% | |
| 81 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 82 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 83 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 58 | 0% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0% | 100% | |
| 60 | 0% | 100% | |
| 61 | 0% | 100% | |
| 62 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 63 | 0.8% | 99.7% | |
| 64 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 65 | 6% | 97% | |
| 66 | 5% | 91% | |
| 67 | 7% | 86% | |
| 68 | 8% | 79% | Majority |
| 69 | 13% | 71% | |
| 70 | 13% | 59% | |
| 71 | 19% | 46% | Median |
| 72 | 5% | 27% | |
| 73 | 12% | 22% | |
| 74 | 5% | 9% | |
| 75 | 3% | 5% | |
| 76 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 77 | 0.5% | 0.9% | |
| 78 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 79 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 80 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya – Partit Demòcrata Europeu Català
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 58 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 59 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 60 | 1.0% | 99.4% | |
| 61 | 1.4% | 98% | |
| 62 | 4% | 97% | |
| 63 | 6% | 93% | |
| 64 | 13% | 87% | |
| 65 | 13% | 74% | |
| 66 | 20% | 61% | Last Result |
| 67 | 8% | 41% | Median |
| 68 | 15% | 33% | Majority |
| 69 | 5% | 18% | |
| 70 | 5% | 13% | |
| 71 | 3% | 8% | |
| 72 | 3% | 5% | |
| 73 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 74 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 75 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 76 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 77 | 0% | 0% |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Junts per Catalunya
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 56 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 58 | 0.4% | 99.8% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 99.4% | |
| 60 | 2% | 98.7% | |
| 61 | 3% | 97% | |
| 62 | 5% | 94% | |
| 63 | 14% | 89% | |
| 64 | 10% | 75% | |
| 65 | 14% | 65% | |
| 66 | 17% | 50% | Last Result, Median |
| 67 | 12% | 33% | |
| 68 | 9% | 21% | Majority |
| 69 | 4% | 12% | |
| 70 | 3% | 8% | |
| 71 | 2% | 5% | |
| 72 | 3% | 3% | |
| 73 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 74 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 75 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 76 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Catalunya en Comú–Podem – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 47 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 48 | 2% | 98% | |
| 49 | 3% | 95% | |
| 50 | 6% | 93% | |
| 51 | 6% | 87% | |
| 52 | 14% | 81% | |
| 53 | 15% | 67% | |
| 54 | 20% | 53% | |
| 55 | 12% | 33% | Median |
| 56 | 8% | 20% | |
| 57 | 6% | 12% | |
| 58 | 3% | 5% | |
| 59 | 2% | 3% | |
| 60 | 0.7% | 1.3% | |
| 61 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 62 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 63 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% | |
| 65 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Vox – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 0.3% | 99.6% | |
| 46 | 1.3% | 99.3% | |
| 47 | 4% | 98% | |
| 48 | 6% | 94% | |
| 49 | 5% | 88% | |
| 50 | 10% | 83% | |
| 51 | 18% | 73% | |
| 52 | 13% | 54% | |
| 53 | 12% | 42% | Median |
| 54 | 10% | 29% | |
| 55 | 7% | 19% | |
| 56 | 8% | 12% | |
| 57 | 2% | 4% | Last Result |
| 58 | 1.0% | 2% | |
| 59 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 60 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 61 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya (PSC-PSOE) – Ciutadans–Partido de la Ciudadanía – Partit Popular
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 40 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 41 | 3% | 96% | |
| 42 | 4% | 94% | |
| 43 | 8% | 89% | |
| 44 | 10% | 81% | |
| 45 | 18% | 72% | |
| 46 | 20% | 54% | |
| 47 | 11% | 34% | Median |
| 48 | 7% | 23% | |
| 49 | 7% | 16% | |
| 50 | 5% | 9% | |
| 51 | 2% | 3% | |
| 52 | 0.9% | 1.4% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 54 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Esquerra Republicana–Catalunya Sí – Catalunya en Comú–Podem
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 0.7% | 99.8% | |
| 36 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 37 | 3% | 96% | |
| 38 | 5% | 93% | |
| 39 | 10% | 88% | |
| 40 | 16% | 78% | Last Result |
| 41 | 14% | 63% | |
| 42 | 17% | 49% | Median |
| 43 | 18% | 32% | |
| 44 | 6% | 14% | |
| 45 | 4% | 9% | |
| 46 | 2% | 5% | |
| 47 | 2% | 3% | |
| 48 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 49 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinòmetre
- Commissioner(s): Ara
- Fieldwork period: 1–4 February 2021
Calculations
- Sample size: 830
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.87%